by Hillel Fendel
Free-for-all time in Israeli politics! Sunday's merger between Benny Gantz's Blue-and-White party and Gidon Sa'ar's New Hope party, in time for the national elections to be held in Israel on Nov. 1, signals new alliances - as well as new political targets for those that have been left out.
Despite the imbroglio, there remains the consolation that in the end, a stable government may be formed, with the participation of the nationalist, right-wing majority, as well as that of the moderate center.
Who are the partners in this new merger? Defense Minister Benny Gantz, a former IDF Chief of Staff, is generally assumed to be just left of center on the political spectrum. Justice Minister Gidon Sa'ar, on the other hand, a former Minister of Education, was a long-time Likud MK with a long history of nationalist views and positions.
Where are they now, politically speaking?
The unfortunate truth is that it doesn't much matter. Both of them, especially Sa'ar, appear to be motivated less by political ideals than by aversion to one man: Binyamin Netanyahu. This is clear from the fact that both preferred, throughout this past year, a government with an Arab party over one with the Likud, headed by Netanyahu, and other nationalist parties.
Both Sa'ar and Gantz decry the catastrophic frequency of elections in Israel – this will be the fifth one since April 2019 –yet they have done nearly everything possible to ensure that no government other than one that includes a Muslim Brotherhood party is established.
This bears repeating: Both Sa'ar and Gantz, and of course Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman as well, could have joined up alongside or under Netanyahu after some or all of the previous elections to form a stable government. However, they chose not to, simply because it would be headed, or co-headed, by Netanyahu. If not for their animosity towards Netanyahu, a nationalist coalition government could have been formed as early as April 2019. Netanyahu, it should be noted, was Israel's longest-serving prime minister, and under his leadership the Likud party gained between 30 and 36 Knesset seats during these last four elections – making it the country's largest party for most of this period, and longer.
The new Gantz-Sa'ar election list is being billed by both leaders as a new phenomenon in Israeli politics: a combination of public right-wing and centrist security. Some commentators, such as radio host Yinon Magal, have said they simply do not understand what these terms mean.
Other observers, including politicians, feel the purpose of the merger had nothing to do with center or right. Rather, Gantz wished to avoid a one-on-one contest between Netanyahu and current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, and therefore formed this new party as if it were centrist, hoping for votes from both left and right.
This might very well backfire, of course, as voters from both left and right will not vote for a party that has members of the opposing side. The Labor Party, for instance, headed by radical feminist Merav Michaeli, has already begun to attack Gantz for adopting a right-wing agenda. Others on the left have taken this stance as well.
From the other side, Sa'ar has already been attacked by both the Likud and Religious-Zionism – the nationalist party to the right of the Likud – for showing his "true, left-wing colors."
One thing is clear: Had Sa'ar's party run alone in the coming elections, it would most likely not have been able to attain the minimum voter threshold to enter the Knesset. The personal interests of both Sa'ar and Gantz are thus fulfilled via this merger.
Netanyahu reacted to the new alliance with dry mockery directed mainly at Sa'ar, a long-time nationalist. "It doesn't matter to me how the left-wing wishes to divide up its votes," Netanyahu said.
One difference between Gantz and Sa'ar that will have to be ironed out at some point is that Sa'ar continues to categorically rule out sitting with Netanyahu in any future government, while Gantz's position on this matter is not as firm.
Among the many question marks that remain are:
• Will the Sa'ar-Gantz list be buttressed by the entry of former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisencott? He has not yet decided whether he will join them, or delay his entry into politics until after the upcoming election.
• What will be with the "other" centrist party – namely, Yesh Atid, headed by Prime Minister Yair Lapid? Will it continue to trounce Gantz-Sa'ar in the polls, while at the same time remain unable to form a coalition because of hareidi and nationalist opposition?
• Will Ayelet Shaked seek a comeback for the Yemina party that she inherited from Naftali Bennett? Though polls show that the party appears to be headed for oblivion, Shaked says she intends to run "until the end;" what scenarios will cause her to change her mind and not cost the nationalist camp precious votes?
Of particular interest to the religious and nationalist camps is how quickly will Smotrich and Ben-Gvir complete their re-merger, and the same for the two factions of the hareidi Degel-Agudah party. The longer they do not do so, the more "bad blood" will pass between the sides of each pair, chipping away at supporters' desire to even show up to vote.
Stay tuned; "only" 16 weeks to go…