by Hillel Fendel
Yesha's New School-Year Stats – and National Politics
.jpeg "Starting the school year in Judea, Samaria, and the Jordan Valley")
Those of you who think, or know someone who thinks, that the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria (Yesha) are a mere asterisk in the larger scheme of the populations of Israel and the Middle East, spread the word: Nearly a quarter of a million children living in Judea, the Jordan Valley, and Samaria began school this year!
Specifically, 86,000 children are enrolled in – get this – 270 elementary schools! There are also 35,000 pupils in some 200 post-elementary schools, and a host more in kindergartens, Talmudei Torah, yeshivot, and more!
Beautiful numbers like these don't just happen on their own. We can barely imagine the amount of idealism and effort and self-sacrifice over the course of decades, under severely difficult economic and security conditions, that has gone into the Yesha enterprise.
Their Parents
But while the students have a relatively comfortable time at school, their parents are not doing as well electorally, in light of the national elections only two months away.
We certainly welcome with open arms the successful merger between Betzalel Smotrich's "Religious Zionism" party and Itamar Ben-Gvir's "Jewish Strength" party. But the dangers that this avoided are still extant, albeit on a smaller scale, given the threats of smaller, religious nationalist parties to insist on running, each on their own, in the upcoming election.
The dangers we have been spared as a result of the Smotrich-Ben Gvir union include: infighting and reputation-smearing by parties competing for the same votes, and the possibility that one or both parties might not reach the minimum voting percentage, thus causing all votes cast for them to be discounted and thrown out – giving a likely victory to the left- and left-center camps.
Emanuel Shilo, editor of the the weekly newspaper Besheva, lists the parties that the nationalist camp would be well advised to discourage from running:
1. The Mafdal/Jewish Home party. For decades the religious-Zionist camp was represented by one party and one party only: the Mafdal. It was a significant force in the Knesset for over 50 years, beginning in 1956, until in 2008 it joined with other groups that ended up becoming the Jewish Home party. Attempts to reconstruct it now, when every religious, Zionist and nationalist vote counts so heavily in the bid to give the nationalist camp sufficient support to form a government without left-wing or Arab elements, are particularly dangerous.
The Mafdal/Jewish Home is expected to garner relatively few votes, possibly only hundreds. Shilo opines that had party head Yossi Brodni, mayor of modern-Orthodox stronghold Kiryat Shmuel, vied for a spot in the Religious Zionism primaries, he would have done well. "His consent to head the Jewish Home party was a large political mistake that has been proven in every poll. The earlier he realizes this and makes a sharp U-turn, the better it will be for his personal political future, for the religious-national public, and for the right-wing camp."
2. Then comes Noam, which is expected to waste several thousand votes if it runs on its own. Its main platform plank is "Jewish Identity," and is essentially the party of the Yeshivat Har HaMor sector. A large Yeshiva of some 700 students that split off from Yeshivat Merkaz HaRav some 25 years ago, Har HaMor is the "parent Yeshiva" of a host of other religious-Zionist Yeshivot around the country.
MK Avi Maoz, who represents Noam in the outgoing Knesset, says that Noam will run independently – but hopefully the Smotrich-Ben Gvir duo will be smart enough to offer him a respectable spot on their list. As of now, Noam has been offered the 11th slot, which it rejected as an insult to the importance of Jewish identity.
Shilo feels that on the one hand, Noam is not the only party to promote this issue, and on the other hand, the 11th spot is currently considered a semi-realistic spot for the joint party. As Smotrich has 5 MKs to whom he must assign realistic spots, while Ben-Gvir currently only has himself as an incumbent, Shilo feels that it would be appropriate for Ben-Gvir to give up his team's 10th-slot in favor of Avi Maoz of Noam.
3. And finally, there is Ayelet Shaked's Zionist Spirit party. If this party runs and does not reach the minimum vote tally to enter the Knesset, as is currently predicted, it could be that up to one or two Knesset mandates' worth of seats could be lost – possibly giving the election to the left-wing and center-left camps. Many do not forgive Shaked for actively joining up with Naftali Bennett to form the outgoing government propped up by the Arab Ra'am party. But, Shilo says, even those who are willing to forgive her must ensure somehow that she will not support the center-left in its ongoing boycott of Binyamin Netanyahu even to head a unity government. Shilo acknowledges, however, that it is hard to assume that she might not be enticed to once again enter a left-center-Arab coalition by the offer of a generous number of Cabinet positions.
In short, if tens of thousands of votes are lost to the nationalist camp because of splinter parties, this could very well cost the Likud-led camp its 61 seats that will enable it to head a right-wing government. We have been warned!