When and If Iran Changes, Israel Must Move First - Or Turkey Will

based on an analysis by Dr. Aaron Lerner, IMRA.

Israel must be immediately prepared for the cataclysmic change that a new democratic Iran – something that could happen with little warning – will present for the entire Middle East. So writes analyst Dr. Aaron Lerner of IMRA.

"A potential regime change in Iran would be one of the most consequential strategic moments Israel has faced since the end of the Cold War," Lerner writes. "For decades, Iran has been the ideological engine and operational backbone of the regional confrontation against Israel. A genuine political rupture in Tehran would dismantle that framework almost overnight."

With many of his readers in the top echelons of both the U.S. and Israeli governments, Lerner emphasizes: "History shows that such openings do not wait to be debated at leisure; they are either seized early or shaped by others."

For one thing, Iran must normalize relations with Israel completely and immediately: 

"If a post-regime-change Iran seeks international legitimacy, there is no clearer signal than full diplomatic normalization with Israel. Such a move would demonstrate to Washington, Europe, and the region that Iran has exited the revolutionary framework that has defined Middle Eastern politics for a generation."

Lerner asserts that Iran must not wait for "perfect stability or full internal consolidation," which would invite third parties to manage Iran’s reintegration themselves. Rather, there must be mutual embassies in Jerusalem and in Tehran, with public declarations and formal recognition.

But that's only the beginning. Israel must then recognize and deal with the next danger: Turkey. Israeli nemesis Erdogan runs a country that is very liable to replace Iran as our central challenge. This is because once Iran exits the confrontation framework, the regional balance reconfigures – with Turkey "uniquely positioned to move first." All Turkey has to do is to become "the easiest and most influential land-based interface for Iran’s access to Europe and NATO-adjacent systems. Economic default status can later be translated - quietly but effectively - into political and strategic leverage."

"If Israel does not act early, Iran’s strategic break risks becoming Ankara’s strategic gain," Lerner warns.

"Preventing Turkish gatekeeping does not require confrontation," he writes. "It requires credible additional options that markets are willing to use. As Iran reintegrates, the goal should be to ensure that its trade and energy links are spread across multiple viable routes… an approach that Saudi Arabia is uniquely positioned to help enable." Israel can and must, quietly and behind the scenes, be involved in shaping these arrangements, especially Persian Gulf-based rail, port, and energy connections.

In sum, according to Lerner: "Speed itself is the strategy… What Israel cannot afford is hesitation that allows others to lock in structural advantages during the transition window. Iran’s potential transformation would open a historic door for Israel. Failure to act swiftly cedes initiative to Turkey."

As an example, Dr. Lerner writes in a separate post that Israel must move to ensure that the 2.5 million barrels of oil that Iran can be expected to export to the West after sanctions are lifted must be shipped via Iran, not Egypt.

Israel's southern port of Eilat "is a considerably cheaper way for Iranian crude to reach Europe than through the Suez Canal, with the added advantage that the supertankers too big for the Suez Canal can easily dock in Eilat."

"And by becoming a route for post-sanction Iranian crude to Europe," Lerner concludes, "Israel won't find itself in the back seat when Turkey offers Iran considerably more expensive access to European markets."

Nearly Framed: Arabs Kidnap Woman – and Accuse Jews

by Hillel Fendel, former editor of Arutz-7's IsraelNationalNews.com.

With one Jew already sitting in prison for a life term for a political crime that all the evidence shows he did not commit, the Palestinian enemy nearly succeeded last week in framing yet several other Jews in a similar way. 

With the outrageous story of Amiram Ben-Uliel in the background – details to be provided below – News 14 Correspondent Eliyah Aviv reports that Arabs from the Jericho area sought to have residents of a nearby Jewish farm accused of kidnapping an Arab woman. 

Specifically, one morning two weeks ago, at 6 AM, a call was received at the police hotline that went like this:  

Man with heavy Arabic accent: "They came into the house, burnt the house, and took the woman… They're religious… They live up above, near the Bedouin… I want you to send the army there very quickly, before they kill the girl... They saw them dragging her and running away. They [the Jews] yelled at them, threw them out, and burned the house."

Dispatcher: "Jews took her?"

Arab:  "Yes, yes, that's what I'm telling you. Who else, Arabs?"

As it turned out, yes, it was Arabs who took her. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The speaker is a resident of Aqabat Jaber, southeast of Jericho, reporting that residents of the Hanan Farm kidnapped his sister and burned down his house. It happens to be that only one family, an idealistic young couple and their children, plus a few volunteer youths, live in the Hanan Farm. 

Of course this call to the police brought the entire region's security apparatus to its feet, fearing a kidnapping as well as vengeance attacks against the Jewish farm. After questioning the suspects and the accuser, the police determined that the kidnapping was carried out by none other than a relative of the accuser, as part of an extended family feud. The woman in question was found in a house in Jericho. 

Reporter Aviv concluded, "This grave incident shows that the enemy in Judea and Samaria will do everything and anything to harm the new enterprise of Jewish farms in the area."

As cited here a number of months ago, "One of the most welcome items on the list of Israel's gains from the war in Gaza is most definitely the unprecedented upswing in settlement construction in Judea and Samaria (Yesha) over the past two years… The army truly understands the role of the new farms and hilltops as a forward defensive shield for the rest of the Jews in Yesha." 

In addition, the farms preserve many thousands of acres of the Land of Israel for the Jewish People; where Jews farm and graze sheep, Arabs do not come to graze – or to throw rocks at passing Jewish motorists. 

But let us return to the name Amiram Ben-Uliel mentioned above. He is a young Israeli husband and father serving three life sentences in jail – including years of solitary confinement – for a murder he confessed to only after being severely tortured. He has maintained his innocence for years, and is joined by many others who say he was framed to cover up a feud between two families in the Arab village. No fewer than ten homes in the village were reportedly set ablaze in a similar manner over the course of several months as part of the internal strife.

The case in which Ben-Uliel was accused happened over a decade ago, on July 31, 2015, in the Arab village of Duma, some five miles east of Shilo in Samaria/Shomron. Two homes were firebombed in the middle of the night; one was empty at the time, but the Dewabshe family was present in the second home. A baby died in the fire, the father and mother died later of their injuries, and a four-year-old boy was severely hurt.

Shortly afterwards, Ben-Uliel was arrested and charged with the three deaths. After a long and controversial trial, he was found guilty and sentenced to three life sentences. The verdict was handed down based on the man's confession and his reenactment, which followed severe torturous interrogations and which he later recanted. 

Critical to note: No other supporting evidence was found against Ben-Uliel, and in fact, much eyewitness testimony of what happened that night actually negates the reenactment. 

Many in Israel therefore see this case as a travesty of injustice, and a public campaign for a new trial has been initiated.

A review of the details of the case can be read here.

A detailed call for Ben-Uliel's pardon or commutation of his sentence by Prof. Yoel Elitzur can be read here.

In light of what has happened with Amiram Ben-Uliel, the news that opened this article cannot be ignored.