Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Can We Still Win the War?

by Emanuel Shilo, Editor of Besheva, translated by Hillel Fendel.




There is no way to achieve the declared goals of destroying Hamas and freeing the hostages without occupying the entire Gaza Strip and establishing a military government. The Israeli public that sacrificed so much should demand from the weakened military and political leadership the victory they promised.

1. It appears, from the interview Prime Minister Netanyahu granted Israel's Channel 14 last week – his first public interview in months – that it will not be more than a few weeks at most before the IDF announces that it has all but completed its mission in Gaza. Our forces will then remain on the Philadelphi route in Rafah and in other strategic locations in Gaza, from where it will occasionally set out to attack specific Hamas targets.

If this is in fact the case, most unfortunately, the war will have essentially ended without the achievement of its goals. Hamas will not have been destroyed; it is already on its way to rejuvenation, at least partially. If Hamas continues to rule in Gaza, it is doubtful whether the exiled Jews of the Gaza Envelope will agree to return to their kibbutzim and communities, even if they are physically rebuilt.

In addition, the hostages – those who are alive – will continue to suffer in captivity, if they survive. Though the IDF might be able to rescue a few more of them here and there, we can assume that Hamas will not agree to any comprehensive release deal, because the hostages serve an important purpose for Hamas: They protect, physically and otherwise, the Hamas leaders from Israeli strikes. The only way Hamas will agree to release them is if Israel withdraws all its forces from Gaza, with international guarantees that the IDF will not attack again. This would be a pure victory for Yahye Sinwar and Hamas, dealing a death blow to Israel's deterrence capabilities vis-à-vis Hizbullah and others. The present government will not agree to such a scenario – but it is not presenting an alternative strategy leading to victory.

2. The alternative that even some on the left-wing agree to is simply this: We must conquer the entire Gaza Strip, pursue every single terrorist, confiscate every weapon and piece of ammunition, and destroy every tunnel and weapons-manufacturing plant. We must not conquer and leave and conquer and leave, but conquer and remain.

Hamas will continue to rule in Gaza unless it is totally dismantled, and this cannot happen if we encourage local militias to take its place. The only body that can neutralize Hamas from the very foundations is an Israeli military government. It will also help Israel in terms of our intelligence gathering. We will be able to receive information from the local populace that will help us locate Hamas leaders, as well as the hostages. When Sinwar realizes that our forces are closing in on him and that his organization is on the verge of total eradication, it is more likely that he will finally agree to release our hostages in a deal that Israel can live with – just as he did in November, when more than 100 hostages were freed.

3. This approach certainly has its shortcomings. However, it is the only way to achieve our war objectives and the victory we so sorely need to rehabilitate our deterrence capabilities. Sadly, there are those amongst us who have despaired of achieving this victory. For instance, the IDF Spokesman actually told the world, in an apparent reflection of the opinion of the Chief of Staff and other top military figures, that Hamas is an "idea that cannot be defeated." Even if it is true that an idea cannot be defeated, certainly the number of its believers can be reduced and its implementation can be prevented. Communism and Nazism might still exist as ideas, but are nowhere near a position to bring about the terrible calamities they did in the past. It is very regrettable that the impression left by the Spokesman's remark is that our General Staff, which is responsible for the Oct. 7th travesty, has simply given up in despair.

4. This defeatist spirit must be opposed on and from all levels, and the movement of opposition must begin at the bottom: The soldiers and their families, those who have been paying the highest price of this war in every sphere, must publicly demand the victory that the government and army promised us, and for which we sacrificed so very much. In the face of the despair and helplessness, the voice demanding victory and the full achievement of our objectives must be heard strongly - from the political echelons, from the public, from the media, and from the battalions, brigades and divisions. 

The government leaders must then demand this from themselves and from the IDF, and internalize that the only path available to us is the complete occupation of the Gaza Strip and the establishment of a military government there.

After all, what is the point of the survival of this government if it doesn't lead us to victory? True, every other possible governmental constellation – other than a unity government – would be much worse. This does not mean, however, that we can accept a right-wing, nationalist government that cannot win the war! If Defense Minister Gallant continues to dream of local Gazan forces that will replace Hamas, he must either be re-educated, or replaced. Binyamin Netanyahu, Yisrael Katz, Yariv Levine, Betzalel Smotrich, Itamar Ben-Gvir, Orit Strook, Yuli Edelstein – it's up to you!!

And it's also up to Avigdor Lieberman and Gideon Saar – two opposition party leaders who understand the importance of fighting the war to it successful conclusion. Instead of providing fuel to the fires of the protestors who continue to demand, at almost literally all costs, the toppling of the present government – which will almost certainly lead to a premature end to the war – they must show responsibility and join the government. 

A unity government is the call of the hour, and will show our enemies that we are still united and still believe in "Together We Will Win."