by Haggai Huberman, translated by Hillel Fendel.
The deal currently being negotiated, according to reports, would turn Israel into a washrag state – acutely endangering our standing in the Middle East.
Former Education Minister and long-time Likud member Limor Livnat, in an interview a few days ago, officially joined the ranks of those who attack Netanyahu for not reaching a deal to free the hostages held by Hamas. She said that his motives for nixing a deal are simply to ensure his government's survival.
Let's ignore, for now, the fact that so far the one nixing the deal has been Hamas. I also don't feel any great need to defend Netanyahu in general, for I really don't know what his motivations are for many of his positions. I can, however, express my opinion on the deal being negotiated, based on the details currently available. And so, my humble opinion is this:
A deal with Hamas wherein we enable Hamas to continue to rule over Gaza and we withdraw our forces and agree to cease our fire – endangers not only the survival of the current coalition government, but is liable to endanger the survival of the State of Israel altogether. This is not an exaggeration.
The "photo of the year" that would crown such a deal will include Sinwar walking confidently and heroically among the adulating crowds of Gazans, smiling and flashing V signs in all directions. It will be a constant reminder to the international community, our foes and friends alike, that the powerful Israel was defeated soundly by a terrorist group. Why would this be a defeat? Because not one of the objectives Israel set for itself will have been achieved – not the release of all the hostages (for the current deal stipulates only that some of them will be freed for now), and not the destruction or replacement of Hamas.
The photos of Israeli hostages being welcomed happily by their families will simply not have the power of the shots of Sinwar and his thousands of cheering terrorists and supporters greeting him throughout Gaza. If anything, they will further symbolize the beating that Israel suffered.
If it is thus solidified throughout the world that Israel was vanquished by Hamas, Israel will become a washrag state, which no country in the world will respect or relate to seriously. This would be a fatal blow precisely to our peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, and of course to the Abraham Accords with the UAE and Bahrain – those which the Israeli left so highly regards.
Both Egypt and Jordan agreed to make peace with Israel only after their leaders became convinced that the State of Israel was the most stable and powerful force in the Middle East, and that it would be worth their while to be on its good side.
Egyptian President Sadat reached this conclusion after his country's military failure in the Yom Kippur War of 1973. That war, as the current one, saw Egypt achieve total surprise against Israel and conquer territories – yet it ended with the IDF threatening to enter both Cairo and Damascus. For Jordan, the understanding came even earlier; after it lost critical territories in the Six Day War, it refused to join the attack against Israel in the Yom Kippur War.
The Abraham Accords with the Gulf states also stemmed from latter's realization that the State of Israel must be reckoned with, not fought against. And Saudi Arabia's desire to be included in the treaty is based on its growing concern at the domination that Iran and its proxies are exercising in the region. The Saudis understand that they must join forces with the primary regional power – the State of Israel – in fighting off the Iranian danger.
But now, if Israel is defeated by a stateless terrorist organization, everything will change. All the above countries will certainly sit down to recalculate their steps and decide if Israel is still on the winning side – or one of the losers.
The State of Israel, with its new washrag image, will receive no sympathy or assistance from anyone. Already today we are under attack by non-countries, such as Hamas, Hizbullah, the Houthis, and other terrorists – and if we release hundreds of terrorists and withdraw from Gaza, this will only increase. When wolves smell weakness, they don't hesitate to pounce.
The bottom line is that if this deal goes through, in exchange for the lives of a few Israelis now and then some more over the course of the next few months of negotiations - and we don't know how many of the 120 hostages are alive; estimates are around 50 - the price we will be forced to pay in the future will be hundreds of other Israeli lives, in a very difficult war, without international aid.
This does not mean that we may not agree to any hostage deal at all. There could possibly be an arrangement whose details might be acceptable. When "freeing the captives" was set as an objective of the war, the intention was not that the IDF would physically rescue each of them from their captivity, which is all but impossible. Rather, it was to create military and other pressures upon Hamas, so that they would agree to release the hostages on terms acceptable to Israel – terms that would not frame Israel as a vanquished country.
This cannot be achieved by periodic forays into Gaza, such as this week's raid on a UNRWA headquarters used as a terrorist base, and not even by air strikes. It certainly cannot happen if we stop the war. We can only achieve the captives' release by taking over more and more Gaza territory, such that Sinwar will truly shake in fear at the sound of Israeli tanks rumbling above his head in his tunnel hideout – as Defense Minister Yoav Gallant boasted at the beginning of the war, though he never attempted to actually execute it.
If and when the State of Israel begins to use these pressure tactics, when it truly rules over most of the Gaza Strip, when the IDF resumes systematically destroying each and every Hamas tunnel and all the rocket launchers and the rocket manufacturing lines – then and only then will we be able to negotiate the terms of a deal for the captives' release from a position of strength.
Anyone who claims that there is another way not only lives in illusions, but is also deceiving the public.