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Tuesday, January 9, 2024

The Threat from Lebanon that We May Not Ignore

by Yoni Rotenberg, northern front reservist and Besheva columnist, translated by Hillel Fendel.




Generally, the return home of IDF soldiers from an emergency call-up, such as that which is happening these days with many soldiers – though far from all of them – is a time of joy and family festivities. The fact that my modest weekly column is appearing here in Besheva once again after a long hiatus shows that I am among these soldiers – but our joy is far from complete. 

Even though this has been the longest broad-scale emergency call-up in at least 40 years, many of the young soldiers already have their next call-up dates in hand. Our feeling now is more one of a "temporary break" than of a true return to civilian life. This is true regarding the Gaza front, but even more in terms of the northern front, from where my friends and I came home. 

Our exit from the outpost facing the Hizbullah rockets was accompanied by strongly mixed feelings. We were of course happy to be going home, and we were pretty worn down – but it was also hard to ignore the fact that the situation in our strategical outpost was exactly the same as it was when we first reached it many weeks earlier. True, some 200 Hizbullah terrorists have been killed so far during the war, and there is even an apparently accurate intelligence evaluation that a large part of the Redwan forces have retreated northward deep into Lebanese territory. But on the ground, the threats from the north remain as before. 

And regarding the threats emanating from Lebanon for the past three months, there is a sense that the average citizen at home does not understand the revolutionary change in the way Israel has to defend itself in the north, relative to the 2006 Lebanese War and before then. To the classic threats of inexact, steep-track (as opposed to direct aim) rockets have now been added precise and deadly dangers: camera-guided shoulder missiles, scout drones, and explosives-bearing unmanned aircraft.

The mode of defense in the north has changed entirely since the 7th of October. The operative assumption now – which has been proven hundreds of times in the past three months – is that any IDF soldier or military target that is exposed to the Lebanese villages will be fired upon within a matter of seconds. The Hizbullah weapon of choice is a Cornet shoulder-fired missile, which is fired by direct aim, is very precise, and is very fast. Sadly, not a few soldiers have been killed or wounded by Cornet missiles since the war started. The IDF has managed to locate and liquidate a fair number of Cornet terrorist squads, but the number of rockets fired daily has remained about the same. The terrorists move quickly behind and between trees and brush and tunnel shafts, and it is therefore not easy to sight and stop them.

Unmanned aircraft are not as common, though the threat they present is greater. They can locate soldiers who are otherwise hidden to Hizbullah eyes, and they can maneuver in the sky and drop down, kamikaze-like, with their explosives into various targets. On the other hand, they are relatively slow and can be intercepted by Israeli batteries. Our own battalion lost Sgt.-Maj. Yechezkel Azariah, 53, to one of these explosive drones just about three weeks ago. 

These direct threats on our northern settlements and forces are currently a great challenge for the IDF. In the community that my comrades and I protected, most of the streets are exposed to Lebanon and are under constant rocket threat. The local town council of Metulah, Israel's most northern town which abuts the Lebanese border from the east, north and west, faces even more serious conditions. The residents have been evacuated, and want to return home after living in hotels for three months – but only if their security can be guaranteed, which it cannot. A simple analysis of the situation shows that there is no magic solution to this dilemma, other than something that includes much more intensive fighting and initiative on our part.

We must state clearly and emphatically: The State of Israel may not, under any circumstances, return to the "conception" that led us to the catastrophe of Oct. 7th. We may not try to analyze Hizbullah's motivations, nor can we allow ourselves to say things such as, "Hizbullah is not Hamas" or "Hizbullah feels responsible for the residents of southern Lebanon [and will therefore not want to start a war]." Statements such as these are no longer relevant. We must not think for a moment that our northern residents can return home because Hizbullah will not fire at them for whatever reason; these fanatic jihadsists make no logical calculations when they see warm Jewish blood before their eyes. 

I do not envy anyone in our government who has to captain our ship in these very stormy and threatening waters. However, our 1,200 victims of the Simchat Torah massacre demand of us that we guarantee that Jewish blood never again be spilt in the name of calculations of "arrangements" and postponing what absolutely needs to be done.