by Yossi Achimeir, Director-General of the Jabotinsky Institute in Israel, and former Director of Prime Minister [Yitzchak Shamir]'s Office, translated by Hillel Fendel.
The beginning of a boxing match is often characterized by the two competitors dancing around each other as they check each other out, sending trial punches one towards the other, approaching and withdrawing – preparing for the violent clash that will inevitably come. This is what today's skirmishes on the Lebanon border look like (for now).
Hizbullah occasionally launches rockets and unmanned aircraft into our territory, the IDF responds with air strikes and with targeted liquidations, and back and forth along these lines – but a full-scale conflict has not yet erupted.
The situation is heating up. The decision whether to initiate a real war has not yet been made in our security network. There is much talk about it. Threats and warnings are abundant, as if saying, "Hold me back, or else I'll let loose with full force."
And if and when the triggers are finally released, it will not be just a war between Israel and the terrorists. It will be a hard, full-scale war, in which primarily the home-front – Israeli civilians from Gedera to Hadera – will endure severe missile strikes. The cost is liable to be very high in casualties and ruins. Nevertheless, Israel's patience has apparently worn thin, and we can no longer endure the frequent attacks and the estimated 150,000 Hizbullah missiles waiting to be fired – and we will therefore have no choice but to move from threats and sporadic attacks to full-scale warfare. This will be the Third Lebanon War.
What will Iran do if Israel engages in full-scale war? An expert on Iranian affairs responded: "If someone builds four walls, won't they put a roof over them?" After all, Iran has built a comprehensive multi-front system for the purpose of causing Israel to bleed on all its borders. Now that the Hamas has exhausted itself, the spearhead has become Hizbullah.
When Iran attacked Israel on April 14th with hundreds of missiles, the onslaught itself failed, causing very little damage. But for the Iranians themselves, this was a significant achievement, "proving" to themselves that they need not be afraid of Israel.
That is, as the expert explained, Iran is no longer wary of a direct clash with Israel, having seen that they can attack Israel head-on and not suffer too greatly.
In the meantime, in Gaza, "the hands are those of Hamas, but the voice is that of Iran" – and the same is true regarding Hizbullah on Israel's northern border.
The Iranian threat is a real one. Iran not only wants to destroy Israel simply because it exists, but also strives to be the dominant power in the region, and Israel is what's stopping it. The question is: How long will Iran's "proxies" war last, with the participation of Hamas, Hizbullah, the Houthis, the Shiites in Iraq, and more, without Iran having to pay any of the price?
I heard another expert explain that although Iran dictates to Hamas, it is really Putin's Russia dictating to Iran. "The Russian-Iranian axis means that we are already in the midst of a world war," he said. "Russia wants to create a new global order." Russia has escalated its anti-Semitic rhetoric, but in order to retain its position of influence, it is willing to speak with Israel as well – but it will back Iran in any eventuality.
Of course, standing opposite Russia is the United States, who alone can deal with the Iranians, but appears to be suffering from a lack of motivation. Will they act to prevent Iran, which has already reached the 60% uranium enrichment level, from attaining military nuclear capabilities? This is the ultimate question of questions. What I am being told is that if war breaks out in the north, whether it is started by Israel or by Hizbullah, the U.S. will not sit by with its hands folded as its ally Israel is attacked. It will rather "surprise Iran," my source says.
The coming days are critical for Israel, which is liable to find itself embroiled in a "war of no-choice" exacting heavy prices throughout the country. During this world war, we will be in the epicenter. We will have to take our fate into our own hands – but to do so, we must all of us, from every sector, face up to the dangers facing us from every corner and end our internal wars.
These wars, which have something to do with democracy, signal to our enemies – who have no inkling in democracy – that we are weak from within. They therefore see this as a great opportunity to attain their end-all goal of destroying us. As Iran sees us, we are weaker, more vulnerable, more torn from within, and unable to take real action neither against southern Lebanon nor against Iran itself.
It is clear to all of us that the days ahead will not be simple. They are likely to be quite fateful, even to the point of placing the fate of the country at stake. In order to successfully negotiate them, several conditions are required - beyond the appropriate military response that will indeed be given, both near and far.
For starters, the government must concentrate primarily on what is truly important, and not deal with anything having to do with coalition politics or other matters that are simply not important for right now. The various commentators we hear every day and night, mainly all sorts of former generals, must stop their irresponsible depictions of Israel as unable to fight two fronts simultaneously, or even three, as we are doing right now.
Similarly, all the various protestors, with all their criticism and outbursts of wrath, must take a long time-out, until the danger to the country has passed – which will not happen in the next year or two.
In general, the fact is that the current danger to the security of the State of Israel has been an intrinsic part of our lives ever since Simchat Torah (Oct. 7th), and will continue to be so for a long while. And if everyone – the politicians, parts of the media, the Messianists [referring to those who still believe in a Palestinian state and peace with those who wish to destroy us? – HF], and the indefatigable protestors – does not wake up to what is happening, the responsibility for the weakening of Israel and an unprecedented war of existence upon us will be on them.