by David M. Weinberg, senior managing fellow at Misgav: The Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy, translated by Hillel Fendel.
Iran is pulling out all stops in its war against Israel.
Following the funeral of Iranian President Ra'isi, who was killed in a [still-unexplained] helicopter crash last month, Supreme Iranian Leader Ayatollah Khamenei convened a meeting of his "Resistance Front," with the participation of Hamas, Hizbullah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the PFLP, and Houthi leaders from Yemen.
The objective of the meeting was to find ways to continue the Jihad "until final victory in Gaza," with the participation of all the resistance groups in the area, and to "clash with American imperialism." Khamenei calls this the "ring of fire" strategy to liquidate Israel and attain regional hegemony.
A week ago, Iran's Foreign Minister visited Lebanon and Syria to meet with Hizbullah leader Nasrallah and "discuss ways to deal with the Zionist regime." This was followed by an escalation in precise Hizbullah rocket attacks on Israeli military and intelligence sites in northern Israel (leading to ravaging fires in the area).
And not only in the north: Tehran stands behind the bolstering of advanced military terrorist infrastructures in Judea and Samaria (Yesha). Back in 2014 Khamenei openly supported "exporting the Islamist revolution" to the hills of Samaria, and rendering the "West Bank" yet another front in the battle against Israel. "Gaza is the center of our resistance," he said, "but small [terrorist] groups in the West Bank are the key that can topple the Zionist enemy and bring it to its knees."
The Iranians did not just talk, but took action. It is no surprise that just a week ago, the Shabak warned of "Iranian islands" full of cash and weapons in Judea and Samaria.
What this means is that we can expect strong battles in the future. For Israel cannot sit with its hands folded and watch Yesha become yet another base for Iranian military activity against Israel, as exist in Gaza and Lebanon.
Where does Iran get all its cash? Well, the Biden Administration unfroze at least six billion dollars in Iranian assets, and also, for another few billion, helped Tehran avoid international sanctions by easing certain restrictions. As a result, Iranian oil experts skyrocketed to 1.82 million barrels a day, the highest amount since Trump restored the sanctions in 2018.
In addition, Hizbullah and Iran's Revolutionary Guards invest significantly, on behalf of Iran, in producing and distributing drugs (amphetamine-like captagon pills and more) throughout the Middle East and Europe, and also in money laundering programs of cryptocurrency, as was revealed last year by the Israeli authorities.
Worse yet is Iran's push to reach full capacity to produce nuclear bombs. All this takes place while the world distracts itself by focusing on Israel's fake"war crimes" in Gaza. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says that Iran's supply of enriched uranium has more than doubled (!) in the last few years, to 42.1 kilos – and that this amount can be converted for use in a nuclear bomb in a matter of days. At this point, this is enough for three such bombs.
When the IAEA condemned Iran for its "lack of cooperation," the U.S. unwillingly joined in at the last minute, after it first lobbied European nations not to vote for imposing sanctions on Iran.
Is there anything, then, that the Iranians should be fearful of from the West? It would seem that not.
Biden's approach is of course a function of the long-standing Obama-Biden obsession with appeasing the Ayatollahs, "hoping they will become less medieval and more compliant if treated nicely," as former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton recently wrote. It is also a function of Biden's desire to keep gas prices low and minimize all distractions in light of the upcoming presidential elections in November.
Only thus can be explained the weak-kneed American responses to the attacks on U.S. ships by Iranian proxies, whereby the Americans took special caution to ensure that no Iranians were killed. This also explains Washington's stubbornness in insisting that Israel respond in a most minor manner to the massive Iranian missile barrage of April 14th. That attack should have been met, by any standard of logic and military deterrence strategy, by a significant Israeli attack against Iran on several fronts. But Washington publicly announced that it would not take part in any offensive action against Teheran, thus taking the wind out of any Israeli plans to significantly defend itself.
And of course Gaza and Lebanon are also fronts for Iranian military action against Israel – and there too the Biden Administration is not allowing us to achieve clear victories. The U.S. is:
* withholding weapons and ammunition;
* trying to control or even prevent IDF activity in the terrorist strongholds;
* forcing Israel to take part in unending, paralyzing, low-chance negotiations for the release of our hostages;
* and irrationally insisting that Israel place the supply of humanitarian aid – which everyone knows reaches Hamas – at the top of its priorities.
In sum, the situation cannot be prettied: The Biden Administration is bringing a catastrophe upon Israel and the West. This, by:
* concentrating its efforts on punishing Israel for daring to defend itself from annihilation;
* denying Israel the weapons and diplomatic cover it needs to achieve decisive victories;
* refusing to recognize Iran's hegemonic "ring of fire" strategy;
* failing to confront the Houthis when they were closing international shipping lanes in the Red Sea (and the Suez Canal);
* and failing to truly stop Iran's nuclear bomb program, which is progressing towards an all-out nuclear attack on Israel within a decade.
What is truly sad is that there still are ways to stop Iran from attaining a nuclear bomb and achieving regional hegemony. There are so many things that the U.S. and its allies can and must do:
* Impose significant sanctions on Iran and tightly supervise its exports of oil and dual-use technologies;
* classify the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization throughout Europe;
* suspend Iranian companies from taking part in international forums;
* place sanctions and economic pressure on Iranian organizations and individuals involved in human rights violations;
* punish key Iranian industries;
* employ covert disruptive measures against Iran's nuclear program;
* and above all: declare a credible and open military threat against the Iranian regime.
And that's just the short list. The Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) has prepared a list of no fewer than 200 specific measures that should be taken against Iran, including from the military, cyber, financial, energy, legal, and diplomatic arenas, in order to deal with the threats posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
These steps would enhance American deterrence, punish Iran sharply for its terrorism-sponsoring activities, help Israel achieve decisive victories, and more.
Most unfortunately, President Biden prefers to allow Iran free leeway to do as it pleases, while he rebukes Israel, and show understanding for the Ayatollahs even as he speaks down to Netanyahu. The world's superpower is enabling Iran's nuclear program to proceed and advance, while holding back the IDF. Truly, we are living in dangerous times.
