by Haggai Huberman, Israeli journalist, author, and the editor of Matzav HaRuach, translated by Hillel Fendel.
If someone thinks that granting the Palestinian Authority (Fatah) control of the Gaza Strip is a defeat for Hamas, he is misreading reality.
The more we complain about the "conception" that led the government and army astray straight to the catastrophe of this past Simchat Torah, the more we now seem to be overlooking yet another "conception" sprouting in our midst – one that is no less dangerous than the previous one. Until eight months ago, the common belief was that Hamas was "deterred," that Sinwar wanted only to rehabilitate the Gaza Strip, and that all was under control. But now, the new conception, spouted and echoed by all the politicians and talking heads on every channel and website you open – on the left, that is – is: There is no way to defeat Hamas militarily.
The conclusion thereof is that we must hand over the Strip to the control of the Palestinian Authority – otherwise known as Fatah, Hamas' nemesis - and that this will be the ultimate defeat of Hamas. Hamas is frightened to death of losing its governing control in Gaza, and therefore the picture of victory for Israel, according to this mistaken approach, is when Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) and his forces march into Gaza in triumph.
It's interesting that those pushing for a deal for the captives and for PA rule in Gaza don't seem to note the inherent contradiction in their position: In return for the hostages, Hamas demands an end to the war and an end to Israel's attempts to depose it – a result that contrasts precisely with granting control of Gaza to Fatah. That is, if we insist on Fatah rule, there can be no hostage deal, and vice versa.
"But that's not the main issue," I say to my friends on the left. "The main issue is that you're once again building up a false conception - founded misguidedly upon your wishes and desires, but totally detached from reality."
"Your first mistake is that handing over the Strip to Fatah control is not the great Hamas defeat that you think it is. In fact, Hamas has no problem with us granting control to Abu Mazen. At worst, it's a little glitch in their plans to retain sole control of Gaza. They most certainly know how to get rid of Fatah, as they did already in 2007 in a military coup, which included throwing Fatah rivals off rooftops [to which Fatah responded in kind]."
Let us recall the history: In June 2007, the escalation of violence between Hamas and Israel began to wane, after yet another round of dozens of rockets fired at Jewish towns near Gaza. At the same time, internecine fighting between Fatah and Hamas in Gaza began to intensify. Though both Fatah and Hamas were partners at the time in one government, headed by Ismail Haniye of Hamas, their battles on one particular day – June 11, 2007 – ended with no fewer than 18 dead. Haniye himself narrowly escaped an assassination attempt. The next day, Hamas presented an ultimatum to Fatah, demanding that they turn in all their weapons and resign from their government positions.
Fatah was not fazed and the battles continued. On the 14th of June, Hamas captured the Preventive Security headquarters, one of the last strongholds of Abu Mazen and Fatah forces in Gaza, and threatened to execute senior Fatah officials. By that evening, Hamas had taken control of most of the Gaza Strip and many Fatah security headquarters. The next day, Hamas had taken over the Philadelphi axis on the Egyptian border and the Rafah Crossing there. On June 16, dozens of Hamas supporters had ransacked Yasser Arafat's home and the PA side of the Erez Crossings.
Bottom line: 15,000 Hamas men defeated the 60,000 of Fatah.
Only a fool would believe that history will not repeat itself in this case. If Israel now withdraws from Gaza and hands it over to Fatah, Hamas will take much less time than the two years it took last time to ruthlessly defeat Fatah.
There is only one entity that can stop the above scenario: the Israel Defense Forces. A necessary condition for a renewed Hamas takeover of the Gaza Strip is the total departure of the IDF from the entire area. Thus, the opposite is also true: The only way to guarantee that Hamas does not return to any form of power is for Israel to retain exclusive security control over the Gaza Strip.
Only under such conditions is there room to discuss what civilian body will be authorized to run the daily lives of the residents of Gaza after the war ends.