Thinking Big: Seven-Fold Growth in the Shomron by 2050

based on an article by Haggai Huberman, Israeli journalist and author (written for the religious zionist periodical - Matzav Haruach), translated by Hillel Fendel.

Generally we report here on the establishment - or the announcement of the establishment - of new communities, housing starts, neighborhoods, or outposts in the hills of Judea and Samaria. This time, however, given that such reports have happily become commonplace of late, the real news is this: The public response to the news of the 18 new communities about to be built in the northern Shomron has been of unprecedented proportions!

The Shomron Regional Council's campaign, together with the Amanah Settlement Movement, to recruit families to join in building these pioneer communities has seen more than 3,000 families request to join up!

The current program involves the reestablishment – which has already begun – of the four northern Shomron communities that were destroyed in the Disengagement of 2005: Ganim, Kadim, Sa-nur, and Chomesh. The other 14 will be built, beginning in the coming weeks and months, in strategic locations throughout the northern Shomron. For information's sake, current well-known communities in the northern Shomron include Elon Moreh, Shavei Shomron, Kedumim, Maskiyot, and more.

The released statistics show that nearly 30% of the interested parties consider themselves secular or traditional, while the rest self-define as national-religious. Half of them already live in Judea and Samaria, another 15-20% are from central Israel, and slightly less than that hail from Jerusalem. There have also been 12 requests from families currently living abroad, including from Miami and Cincinnati in the U.S., Cyprus, Great Britain, Canada, and Switzerland. New immigrants from France and Ukraine have also filed applications.

Half of the families who are considering taking part in the challenge of Making the Shomron Great Again are young couples in their 20's, and some 20% are over age 60. The applicants from a diverse range of occupations: About 40% of them work in education and therapy, 25% in engineering, high-tech, and liberal professions, and the rest in construction, agriculture, and manual labor.

The emerging picture shows that the nuclear pioneer groups for the "Big Four" - Kadim, Homesh, Sa-Nur, and Ganim – as well as for the new town of Noa are already full, with only a few spots remaining. The first pioneers of Har Eval moved to the new site just this very week, alongside a branch of the Elon Moreh Yeshiva that is already operating at the site.

The new-old community of Ganim will be initially established by families of graduates from the Eli Yeshiva, just north of Shilo; families of graduates from Tel Aviv's Yeshivat Maaleh Eliyahu are set to kick off Kadim; and in Emek Dotan, a branch of the Bruchin Yeshiva will be established with families from Tiberias, Lod, and Bruchin.

Other communities in the formation stages are Shalem (near Itamar), Maayanot, and Merom Gilboa, all expected to move with their already-full core groups right after the High Holidays.

The establishment of the 18 towns – a program that has been termed the Connection Plan, in contrast to the Disengagement that destroyed Gush Katif in Gaza and the above four Shomron towns 21 years ago – is a fulfillment of a Cabinet decision led by Finance Minister Betzalel Smotrich and Defense Minister Yisrael Katz.

It is also part of a broader plan to increase the Shomron's Jewish population to more than one million (!) by the year 2050. Though this population currently stands at approximately 150,000, this brainchild program of Shomron Council head Yossi Dagan has been developed based on natural growth, high-rise construction, and more. Geographic engineers and a broad team of professionals in various disciplines worked, and are working, together on the program.

The program, of course, does not even include the new community of Zibda that was announced just this week – because this will be established in the Yesha area south of Shomron, not far from Modiin. Its goal is to help strengthen the seam-line area of western Binyamin. The new families are in the process of preparing their ascent to the land.

Other plans for the Shomron include a new city, currently known as East Rosh HaAyin, designed to house over 130,000 residents on what is currently agricultural land in the western Samaria highlands. Rosh HaAyin itself has a population nearing 81,000. The new city is being promoted as a security belt and strategic buffer for central Israel. In addition, the western Shomron community of Karnei Shomron, with a population over 11,200, is slated to triple in size with the addition of 6,000 new homes.

At the same time, a community "envelope" is being planned, including a branch of the Bnei David pre-military Yeshiva academy (main branch in Eli), and other and yeshiva and pre-military institutions as well.

Shomron Council head Dagan – who himself, with his family, was expelled from Sa-nur during the Disengagement, moved to Shavei Shomron, and now lives once again in the "new" Sa-nur – says: "The numbers warm our hearts and speak for themselves. They prove that the People of Israel has not forgotten its roots. The Connection Plan aims to reconnect our People with itself, its values, its roots – and with the fundamental values of the State of Israel."

The Miracle of Olmert's Convergence Plan

by Haggai Huberman, Israeli journalist and author (written for the religious zionist periodical - Matzav Haruach), translated by Hillel Fendel.

It has not received much press, but the government made history this month when it made a series of decisions with historic significance for Judea and Samaria. Leading the way was Minister of Finance Betzalel Smotrich (Religious Zionism party), who also serves as Minster in the Ministry of Defense. Israel's mini-security Cabinet voted to fundamentally change how lands in Yesha are bought and administered, greatly fortifying the settlement enterprise.

The new changes include:

·         The removal of confidentiality requirements regarding land registry records in Yesha, thus increasing transparency and facilitating Jewish redemption of land

·         The repeal of the Jordanian law prohibiting the sale of real estate to Jews. [Nearly six decades after liberating Yesha, Israel has still never annexed the area, thus leaving some Jordanian laws in effect by default.] This allows Jews to purchase land in Judea and Samaria just as they do in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem.

·         An upgrade to the holy Tomb of Rachel site in a Bethlehem enclave, which will now have its own municipal administration, providing basic services.

·         Hebron: Building permits in the Jewish community and the Cave of the Patriarchs are now under the auspices of Israel's Civil Administration, instead of the Arab Hebron Municipality. Full municipal powers have now been granted to the Jewish Hebron Administration, which is now able to address residents' needs without having to depend on not-necessarily cooperative PA mechanisms.

At the same time, Israel has up-shifted gears in its war for the overall preservation of the Land of Israel throughout Judea and Samaria. Supervisory and enforcement activity will be applied in Areas A and B (under full and partial PA control, respectively) regarding pollution, water, and archaeological-sites infractions. 

The reason these decisions are so dramatic is because they erase, once and for all, the "vision" that reigned here precisely 20 years ago, when it appeared that the Jewish presence in Yesha was to be curtailed, condensed, and cut down to unsustainable proportions.  

Gloom in 2006

What happened 20 years ago was that Ehud Olmert was elected Prime Minister, shortly after – and on the coattails of – Ariel Sharon's ill-fated Disengagement plan. Just as Sharon withdrew unilaterally from all of Gaza, ultimately leading to several short wars and the Oct. 7^th massacre, Olmert was ready to do nearly the same in Judea and Samaria.

He called his plan the "Convergence," according to which Israel was to dismantle and withdraw from at least 60 Jewish communities, and retain no more than some 7% of Yesha. Like the Disengagement, this plan was also to be implemented unilaterally if agreement with the PA was not reached.

Following the elections of March 2006, the left-wing camp became (seemingly) firmly ensconced in power. The government was led by Olmert's Kadima party (originally founded by Sharon after the Likud largely withdrew its support for the Disengagement), and included Labor, Shas, and the seven seats - a fluke achievement - of the Pensioners' party Gil. The Gaza border was quiet, and the Disengagement was perceived at the time as a wise and safe move.

On May 4^th of that year, Olmert presented to the Knesset his new government, with guidelines stating clearly that "the area of Israel with new borders to be determined by the government, will require the reduction of Israeli settlement areas in Judea and Samaria." That is, the democratically elected prime minister of Israel promised to destroy dozens of Jewish communities, with or without an Arab partner for the move.

On June 14^th, Olmert – a former and long-time Likudnik – announced in Paris after meeting with President Chirac: "The Convergence plan is inevitable. I am determined to continue my path of separating permanently from the Palestinians, to attain safe borders that will be recognized by the international community."

The atmosphere in Yesha at the time was dismal, and many residents feared the worst. Some even began making secret inquiries and preparations regarding the compensation that they assumed would soon be offered them in exchange for their homes.

This was indeed Olmert's plan – but apparently, the Creator of the world had other idea. Just 11 days after his Paris declaration, events took their first sharp turn in a very different direction: Gilad Shalit was abducted from his tank on the Gaza border – and all of a sudden, the Disengagement didn't look like such a bright idea anymore.

Still, Olmert didn't back down, and vowed yet again to continue along his Convergence path. However, just two days later, on July 12, two reserves soldiers – Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev – were kidnapped and ultimately found to have been murdered by Hizbullah terrorists while patrolling Israel's border with Lebanon. At least five other soldiers were killed in that operation. With this, the logic of the unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon of six years earlier – the brainchild of then-PM Ehud Barak – was also called into question.

Quite abruptly, Israel now found itself fighting two wars: the Second Lebanon War, and Operation Summer Rains following the kidnapping of Shalit. Withdrawals from Israeli-held territory, especially without an agreement with the enemy, no longer appeared very wise. On September 4, Olmert was forced to concede, telling the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee:

"Convergence No Longer on the Table"

"What I thought a few months ago regarding the Palestinians, is not correct at present. Our order of priorities, including what to do about the Palestinian problem, is different than it was in the past. At this point, the Convergence is not one of our priorities, as it was two months ago."

A year later, Olmert and the PA's Mahmoud Abbas, hosted by then-President George W. Bush, began trying to negotiate some kind of withdrawal from Yesha in Annapolis, Maryland. Olmert actually offered the PA some 94% of Judea and Samaria – but thankfully, Abbas rejected even this, and the conference ended with no agreement. The diplomats and negotiators packed up and went home, the plans for the abandonment of the Jewish homeland became a form of science fiction, and the Jews of Yesha – and many other Israelis whose lives would have been endangered had the PA been handed control – breathed a loud sigh of relief.

Back in Time

I ask the reader to go back in time to the month of Adar 5766/February 2006, when families in Yesha were quietly consulting with lawyers about receiving compensation. Now, imagine that someone told you then that 20 years hence, the government would not only obviate the need for compensation for the demolition of communities and homes, but would also enable the private purchase of land for the purpose of building communities. How would we have regarded such a “prophet”?

Thankfully, in this month of Adar, once again, things have happily turned upside down. Happy Purim!

The Same Headlines, 47 Years Later

by Haggai Huberman, Israeli journalist and author (written for the religious zionist periodical - Matzav Haruach), translated by Hillel Fendel.

The headlines of the past few days about Iran reminded me that we read the same ones exactly 47 years ago, in Tevet 5739, January 1979. The newspapers then blared repeatedly "Riots Throughout Iran Threaten the Regime." At the end of December 1978, the front page of Maariv blared out, "Total Paralysis in Iran's Economy, Observers: 'Regime Change is Just a Matter of Days.'" Ten days later, Davar announced, "Chaos in Teheran, Violent Protests in Tabriz, Shortages of Gas and Oil Paralyze the Country."

It's as if the headline writers took a page from the future headlines from 2026 – with one small difference: In 1979, the riots toppled the Shah of Iran, and brought to power Ayatollah Khomeini. This time, it could very well be the exact opposite, albeit with a change of names.

It was reported a few days ago that the current leader, dictator Ali Khamenei, had prepared an escape plan to Moscow in the event that his regime falls. The plan reportedly includes a quick exit for him and his family in case the riots continue and the army withdraws its support for him. With thousands of protestors dead so far at the hands of the government, according to various sources, the situation in Iran is clearly very explosive – with positive ramifications for the Middle East and the entire world. 

U.S. President Donald Trump, fresh off his (so far) successful game-changing coup in Venezuela, now has the chance to influence, yet again, the entire balance of power in the Middle East. This will be an opportunity to rectify the blunder made, for "politically correct" reasons, by Jimmy Carter. 

Nuclear Iran, Hizbullah, Hamas, the Houthis, the Shiites in Iraq – all of these plagues are the result of Carter's total lack of understanding that led him not to intervene in Iran in late 1978. By so doing, he enabled the ascent of Khomeini and all the evil he brought with him. 

What happened, simply, was that this Democratic, near-sighted, liberal president felt that "human rights" in Iran were more important than his own country's strength. Carter could have prevented the Shah's fall and exile, if he would have given him full backing when the anti-government riots started. But he refused to do this because he suspected the Shah of being soft on "civil rights." He explained that he had no intention of intervening in "Iran's internal political affairs," but rather that he was primarily interested in stability and preventing violence. He added for the record that the U.S. would prefer that the Shah continue to "play a central role in the government," but that that was for the Iranian nation to decide… 

In short, the President of the United States abandoned his long-time ally, the Shah of Iran, and tacitly allowed the rise of Khomeinism. 

Allow me to quote from "Debacle: The American Failure in Iran" (New York, Alfred A. Knopf, 1981), in which authors William Lewis and Michael Ledeen write [translated from the Hebrew translation]: "The fundamental problem throughout the crisis was the absence of the President. Carter never took an active role in the discussions, never gave any clue as to what solution he preferred, and never placed the Iran question in its overall context..." 

They also wrote: "The lack of American support for [the Shah's] regime caused trembling among the pro-West rulers in the Middle East." The U.S. even refused to offer its long-time ally safe refuge if and when he would need it. "The abandonment of the Shah after he left Iran proved to the world that no friend of the U.S. could rely on American help if his situation would be shaken." [Upon fleeing Iran in January 1979, the Shah traveled to Egypt, Morocco, The Bahamas, and Mexico before entering the U.S. in October for medical treatment of lymphatic cancer. He was later granted asylum in Egypt, where he died in 1980.]

Back to January 2026: Pres. Trump has issued all the right warnings, showing support for the protestors and providing a backwind for their efforts to topple the Ayatollahs' regime. It remains for us just to wait and see if the blustery announcements will be followed by actions.  

Revolution Against Hamas?

Hope for change might not depend entirely on the U.S., however. MEMRI reports that Egyptian journalist Ahmad Abd Al-Wahhab - deputy editor of the Egyptian government daily Akhbar Al-Yawm and columnist for a Saudi news site - has written that Hamas has brought devastation upon Gaza and caused a deep crisis of trust between Hamas and the local population. He argues that the Gazans now realize that Hamas is responsible for their disaster, and therefore no longer believe its “resistance” slogans that blame Israel for their misery. He warns, according to MEMRI's summation, that a deepening of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza could lead to a public explosion against Hamas.

If so, we may assume that given the downfall of the Assad regime in Syria a year ago, which came about in the wake of Hizbullah's collapse in Lebanon and the blows delivered to Iran, it is not unlikely that a collapse of the current Iranian regime – a very long-time prime supporter of Hamas – will encourage the Gazan public to rise up and topple Hamas. Perhaps this is not very realistic at present, but history is replete with surprises, as we all know. The most illogical things are often those that most influenced world history. 

[Translator's note: However, Ynet reported this week, in more than one article, that Israel (!) is continuing to provide economic support to Hamas. No explanation was provided.]

It's Not the Economy, Stupid!

by Professor Asher Cohen, Department of Political Studies, Bar Ilan University, (written for the religious zionist periodical - Matzav Haruach) translated by Hillel Fendel. 

The key slogan in Bill Clinton’s US Presidential election campaign more than 30 years ago – “It's the economy, stupid!” – is considered even now one of the most successful lines in the history of political propaganda. 

Clinton’s advisors understood that the vast majority of Americans are interested, more than anything else, in economic issues, and especially as they relate to their own individual financial situations. This insight was one of the factors that led to his victory. In terms of American domestic issues, this is certainly logical and understandable.

But it is totally irrelevant to the Middle East, and the problem is that President Donald Trump has adopted the same spirit as part of his dream to reorganize and reorder the world. He is waging his great struggle for a new world order against China, and more broadly against the China-Russia axis and their partners around the world. One might be tempted to view this as a battle of ideologies, between the world’s leading democracy against two non-democratic powers – but this is far from the case. 

Trump's objective is not ideology as much as it to simply stop the Chinese. He is willing to forge political partnerships with regimes very far from being democratic on the basis of national interests alone. All he demands is that they be willing to help him block the Chinese; the question of national identity and ideology is far less important to him. Even states that are willing to join his alliances against the Chinese even as they support terrorism are most welcome.

Trump, with his business and deal-making experience and background, believes that almost any challenge in international relations can be solved through various economic incentives. Many in Israel have been of this mindset in the past, and some remain there to this day. The “New Middle East” envisioned by Shimon Peres rested entirely on the hope for a dramatic improvement in the Palestinians’ economic lives, which he hoped and expected would lead them to choose peace and compromise over their hatred for Israel. 

Remnants of this approach continued for years afterwards, up to this day, under a basic assumption that economic improvement for PA residents - more work entry permits, a flow of funds into Gaza, etc. - would lead to security calm. 

Israel understood too late, after paying the terrible and painful price of the Oct. 7th massacre, that the issue of ethnic identity is much more central to our Arab enemies than financial interests. People with an economic-business outlook, such as Pres. Trump and Israeli adherents of the Peres approach, are astonished to discover that even after the destruction of most of the Gaza Strip, the overwhelming majority of Gazans say that Oct. 7th was a positive event. Hamas continues even now to recruit more and more young people for the sacred goal of destroying Israel.

This can be seen in Lebanon as well. Even after the heavy blows it has suffered, Hizbullah does not give up for a moment what it describes as “the resistance.” Its members seek not to rebuild the villages of southern Lebanon, but to renew the terrorist infrastructures.

No improvement in their standard of living will get Hamas, and an overwhelming majority of all PA residents, to give up their basic identity – centered around their dream of destroying Israel. Arab-Palestinian identity in its essence is rooted in their hatred of Zionism and Zionists. To expect that they would abandon their goal of annihilating Israel as the nation state of the Jewish people is tantamount to demanding that they cease to be "Palestinians."

There is no Arab organization in the PA parallel to “Peace Now.” Periods of apparent calm are merely fillers as they wait for conditions to enable them to resume their fight-to-the-death against Israel. 

In Israel, there is a growing understanding that even countries that appear to be potential partners with the US in bringing "peace" to Gaza – Turkey and Qatar foremost among them – have never abandoned their fundamental conceptions. They view Gaza as a permanent focal point of violence and hatred against Israel, one that will seek to challenge, harass and weaken Israel at every turn until it realizes its dream of destroying the Jewish state. 

Even as the Americans seem to approach Gaza with an "art of the deal" outlook, Israel must stand its guard and be careful not to repeat the same mistake. Israel must oppose this American mindset in every possible way.