Reports of the Demise of American-Israeli Alliance are "Highly Exaggerated"

by Zev Kam, public news commentator and reporter, translated by Hillel Fendel.

It took only a bit more than a week for the media onset of the usual nonsense about "cracks" in the cooperation between the U.S. and Israel in the war against Iran. This is precisely as it's been for years now in the Israeli media: In the first days of a war, we see almost total unity behind the army, government, and war objectives. But as the days go by, all sorts of hints of weariness and impatience begin to pop up, and even doubts regarding the "justness of our cause" – as if protecting ourselves against Iran needs justification. Then come the reports of "gaps" and disagreements and even tension between Israel and the U.S. This is how it happened in the war with Hamas, then regarding the battles in Lebanon, and even now in this unprecedented war with no-longer-nuclear Iran.

There are some who simply can't find it in their hearts to enjoy all this goodness. Either they're impatient, or they forgot the threat that Iran possessed, or their political agenda simply doesn't allow them to do anything other than try to bring down or even just criticize the government. So they look for any possible hint of disagreement between us and America, and if they find some minor Administration official who can say a half-sentence that shows less than total infatuation with Israel, they'll be happy to spread far and wide "news" of the end of the American-Israeli honeymoon.

The same thing is happening with alleged American criticism of Israel's bombing of Iran's gas reserves. The fact is that the coordination between Israel and the U.S. has remained as tight as it was two weeks ago. The Americans are still determined to go all the way, in contrast with the fake reports of "erosion" in their resolve. Trump 2026, in the Iranian context, is the same Trump as in his first term, when he quit Obama's nuclear agreement with Iran and successfully targeted the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC). He's also the same Trump who was nearly assassinated by Iranians. He knows precisely what Iran is and the extent of the threat it represents.

If anything, his appetite is getting stronger. If last June Trump gave us 12 days to wage a short war against Iran, this time he was predicted to give a full two weeks - and the clock is still running now, nearly three weeks later. The great early successes seem to have whetted his appetite, and he has therefore decided he wants more.

In this regard, we must clarify the respective goals of the two allies. Back at the end of last year, before the Iranian protests started, the goals defined by the Americans were very clear and precise: No nukes or intercontinental ballistic missiles, degraded IRGC and proxies, no regional aggression, and an end to Iranian missile development.

But during January, when toppling the Iranian regime began to seem possible, the Americans started to consider making this a war objective. This looked realistic especially when Trump announced to the Iranian public, "Help is on the way!" But we must remember that, in fact, absolute, official regime change has never been an American war objective. No matter how many Iranian government officials are killed and how many targets are bombed, in the end it's up to the Iranian people: If they don't take down their government themselves, it won't be done.

As of now, therefore, both Trump and Netanyahu will be happy if their original objectives are carried out.

If there is any fear of tension between the U.S. and Israel, it has to do with "the day after." It could be that precisely on the backdrop of the full bilateral cooperation at present, the Americans might come and tell us, "We were with you in Iran, now it's your turn to show us that you're with us regarding the Palestinian issues and the Saudi demands." Just like we were all sadly surprised when Trump announced his objections to Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria, it's not out of the question that something similar will happen again.

On the other hand, that is far from the only scenario. It could very well be the opposite - that the Arab nations around us will realize that their own existential interests overshadow the Palestinians, and that they would be smart to continue their cooperation with the U.S. It would not be surprising at all if after the war, we see a quick rejuvenation of the Abraham Accords, at the expense of Abu Mazen and the Palestinian Authority. 

On the one hand, if the Iranian threat is neutralized, Saudi Arabia may feel it no longer needs us; after all, why should they pay a price in domestic public opinion by aligning with the Zionists? This is actually what happened after the war of last June: The Saudis thought we had removed the Iranian threat hanging over them as well as over us, and they therefore quickly distanced themselves from us.

Now, however, a fascinating partnership of fate has unwittingly emerged, wherein both they and we, along with other Gulf states, are being attacked by the same country. At the same time, the Saudis have discovered that the alliance they forged with Turkey and Pakistan is nothing but a broken reed, an alliance only on paper – for the Turks did not stand by the United States in this war, choosing rather the side of the “bad guys,” and the Pakistanis mainly looked for a way to avoid any involvement.

What Time Will it be Over? 

Back home in Israel, many are asking how it is that it appears that the Iranian missiles keep coming? Didn't we destroy them already?

The answer is that, numerically, Iran has in fact been firing fewer and fewer missiles in each attack, even though the number of bomb sirens has not decreased. This is actually the main challenge facing the IDF now: how to destroy the most missiles and launchers. One explanation is the cloudy weather in Iran in recent days, which has made it difficult to locate the launchers. In addition, it must be remembered that the more launchers are destroyed, the harder it is to find the rest of them. It will take a bit more time, but the IAF has expressed its confidence to the government that it will happen. When we reach, with G-d's help, a level of just one Iranian rocket per day, as it was with the Houthis for a long while, the entire economy will be opened, including schools and airports, and we will be in a different place.

Politically, what's going on with the elections scheduled for this October? It is now clear that this year's annual budget will be passed by the Knesset – an achievement that can be chalked up to Finance Minister Betzalel Smotrich's credit. The following sentence has not been spoken or written in Israel for over 30 years: It looks like the elections will be held on time, and will not be advanced because of some political crisis or another. All the talk about Bibi calling snap elections to take advantage of the war gains seem to be just that – talk – assuming that the work in Iran will be completed successfully.

And how did it come about that the hareidi parties agreed to support the budget and not topple the government even without the lenient hareidi recruitment bill they have been hoping for? It's complex, but the short answer is that in exchange for other political benefits, they convinced their rabbinical leaders that the charge of the hour now is to be united in the war and put aside matters in dispute.

And now, for desert, an encouraging true story: On Monday I happened to be in the Shivtei Yisrael synagogue in Givatayim for evening prayers, when all of a sudden we heard the familiar bomb siren. We all went down to the shelter, and within seconds, more people joined us as well: locals without a safe room at home, passersby who chanced to be there, etc. So there we were: one of us reciting aloud a chapter of Psalms, others with their knitted yarmulkes, older secular neighbors, young couples, and more than one with a dog. Children played and yelled enthusiastically around and about the adults – and all in great harmony of the most Jewish type. Different folks, brothers sharing troubles, brothers in Redemption.

Israel’s Demographic Momentum: A Growing Gap Between Jewish and Arab Trends

Based on "2026 Israel’s Demography Repudiates Conventional Wisdom" by Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger

For years, conventional wisdom warned of a looming demographic balance between Jews and Arabs in Israel because Arab fertility was far higher than Jewish fertility. But recent data suggests a different reality is unfolding—one marked by diverging trends in birth rates, fertility, and population growth.

A Widening Gap in Births

According to Israel’s Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, the number of Jewish births has risen sharply over the past three decades:

• 1995: about 80,400 Jewish births

• 2025: about 139,676 Jewish births

This represents a 74% increase.

By contrast, Arab births grew much more modestly:

• 1995: about 36,500

• 2025: about 44,000

That’s roughly a 21% increase.

As a result, Jewish births now make up about 76% of all births in Israel, compared to 69% in 1995. The gap is not just persisting—it’s widening.

Fertility Rates: A Historic Reversal

One of the most significant changes is in fertility rates.

For decades, Arab fertility was far higher than Jewish fertility. But that gap has closed—and in some cases reversed:

• Jewish fertility: about 3.0 children per woman

• Muslim fertility: about 2.5 children per woman

Around 2015, the two rates converged. Since then, Jewish fertility has often edged ahead.

This is a dramatic shift from the past, when Arab families were significantly larger on average.

Why Arab Fertility Is Declining

The decline in Arab fertility reflects broader social and economic changes:

• Increased urbanization

• Higher levels of education

• Greater participation of women in the workforce

• Later average age of marriage

• Expanded use of contraception

These trends mirror patterns seen across much of the developing world as societies modernize.

Jewish Fertility: Unusual for a Developed Country

At the same time, Jewish fertility in Israel remains unusually high—especially compared to other developed nations.

Among countries in the OECD, most have fertility rates well below replacement level. Israel stands out as a rare exception.

What makes this even more notable is that:

• Higher education and income in Israel do not necessarily lead to fewer children

• Fertility is supported across multiple segments of society

While the Haredi Jews continue to have the highest birth rates, growth is also coming from secular and traditional populations.

Younger vs. Older Populations

Another emerging difference is in age structure:

• The Jewish population remains relatively young, supported by higher birth rates

• The Arab population, with declining fertility, is beginning to age gradually

Over time, this affects everything from workforce size to economic growth and social services.

Why This Gap Matters

These diverging trends are not just statistical—they have real-world implications:

• Population balance: A growing Jewish share of births strengthens long-term majority trends

• Economy: A larger, younger population supports workforce growth

• National planning: Education, housing, and infrastructure needs shift accordingly

The Bottom Line

Israel’s demographic picture is no longer defined by convergence, but by divergence.

• Jewish birth rates are rising

• Arab birth rates are growing more slowly

• Fertility trends have shifted in favor of the Jewish population

Together, these changes suggest that the demographic balance within Israel is evolving in ways that challenge long-held assumptions—and may shape the country’s future for decades to come.

Wars are Won Not Only by Shooting

by Prof. Elisha Hass, member of Professors for a Strong Israel, translated by Hillel Fendel.

President Trump announced last week that he is prepared to accept “only unconditional surrender.” This is because he wants a traditional, decisive victory. Most wars, in fact, end when one side reaches the conclusion that he has lost and that there is no point in continuing, and surrenders unconditionally.

To achieve this, both sides, and especially the winning one, work to strike the enemy’s symbols of rule and national sites with cultural and other importance. The goal is to bring the enemy to a psychological state that will lead to his surrender.

Let us consider the intense, though not particularly well-known, war that is taking place in Judea and Samaria. Many IDF fighter battalions have been dispatched to these areas. The question is: Do these battalions understand their mission? Is it clear to the IDF who exactly the enemy is? Do the IDF leaders understand the importance of hitting symbolic and nationally important targets in a military campaign? Are the battalions being sent to the front striving for victory – or for stalemate?

We know very well that the IDF is not the only army in the field. A well-trained and suitably-equipped Palestinian army shares the space with us, having received its war training in the framework of the Oslo Accords from the U.S. Army's General Dayton. This is an army with improved abilities that is located, as the saying goes, "just five minutes away from Kfar Saba." It takes encouragement and motivation from the Oct. 7^th massacre, and is an army with clear awareness of its goal to destroy the State of Israel. The motivational weapons it uses include symbols such as monuments of its leaders, such as the PA father of Oslo - none other than arch-terrorist Yasser Arafat, may his name be blotted out.

The Disappointing News from Shomron

And yet, just this week we have learned that an IDF reserves soldier from the Menashe Brigade (responsible for the northern Shomron, including PA cities such as Tulkarem and Jenin) has been suspended, after it was learned that he defaced a monument in honor of Arafat in the village of Zababida. The IDF quickly decided to remove him from active service, announcing that smashing Arafat's likeness with a hammer was "against the regulations."

We are, of course, at war. The government, with public support, calls upon its loyal citizens to leave their homes and families and report for duty for unknown durations. The army's values are, clearly and primarily, to strive to engage with the enemy and aspire to victory. In light of what we have said regarding the value of destroying his national symbols, this decision by the army raises some strong question marks:

Non-Comprehension?

Does the IDF understand its objective and how to achieve it? Does it not understand that while the enemy strives to wear us down with terrorism, our goal must be clear victory? Does the IDF not realize that young terrorist gangs are our enemy?

The IDF appears to be still living under the misconception of the Oslo generation that brought upon us the tragic disgrace of 10/7. Instead of sending the reservists to totally destroy the military threat to central Israel, it continues to nurture the enemy and its symbols. Instead of wiping it out, it continues to preserve the capabilities of the threat to the heart of our country, under the illusion that this enemy can be turned into a friend. This was a reckless illusion from the day Oslo began, and especially after the morning of Simchat Torah 5784.

Hegseth Got it Right

It is worth studying the clear and straight-on speech of U.S. War Secretary Pete Hegseth last week. He announced that the United States is fighting without the principles of political correctness and progressivism: an enemy is an enemy. We, too, must apply these rules of combat not only to Iran, but also to the West Bank. Any enemy focused on the destruction of the Zionist enterprise, whether openly or under camouflage, must know that it faces the singular fate of destruction. It’s either us – or them. 

It’s high time to erase the infamous “Spirit of the IDF” document that emasculates our army and endangers all of us. We must cultivate the combat mindset of the soldier and encourage him to take combat actions even vis-à-vis the enemy’s motivation. We the citizens must demand that the military command provide soldiers with the full tools of combat and make it clear, once and for all, who the enemy is.

And of course, the smart soldier from the Menashe Brigade, who knows how to defeat the enemy by striking directly at what makes him tick, must be immediately returned to service and given words of encouragement so that all his comrades - and commanders - understand. Enemy symbols are targets for attack no less, and even more, than physical positions or other ground targets chosen “according to regulations.”

Translator's Note: Public Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir criticized the censure of the soldier, but even he could have done so more strongly: "Arafat's hands were filled with the blood of very many Jews… The reservist [in question] is in the midst of a war, which began with the slaughter of his brothers and sisters; fighting for Am Yisrael, he expressed his pain, fury, and sense of justice. The army's decision [to dismiss him] went a step too far, and should be reconsidered."

Waking Up from a Scary 30-Year-Old Dream

by Boaz Lieberman, Strategic Crisis Management Advisor, translated by Hillel Fendel.

There are singular occasions in history when a particular reality is totally, and abruptly, replaced by another. This is precisely what happened to Israel during the current war with Iran and its underlings such as Hizbullah. Not only has there been a military change, but also a 30-year-old deception has collapsed before our very eyes.

For decades the Israeli public has been inculcated with the fear of regional war. Every time the possibility of war with Iran was even raised, the TV studios were immediately inundated with the same commentators and experts who explained why we simply could not even entertain such a scenario. They warned us that it would bring destruction upon us, including financial collapse and thousands of rockets that would wipe out entire cities. Nothing short of an apocalypse.

This conception of fear became an axiom of our beliefs. The message was drilled in repeatedly for three decades: Israel can fight only limited wars, whereas a full-scale regional war was a red line we could simply not cross, because its price would be, literally, unbearable.

And then reality arrived:

Israel strikes deep inside Iran. Hizbullah joins the campaign. Iran launches missiles. And the Israeli home front, with all the difficulties and tensions, continues to function! The economy does not collapse. Israeli society does not fall apart. The public does not panic – and actually shows strong resilience.

Businesses continue to operate. People go out to work. Children laugh and play in the streets between sirens. And it's not because of apathy. It is rather a deep Israeli trait of standing firm under pressure.

The gap between reality and that which we were so dramatically warned of is tremendous. We were taught that if Israel dared to confront Iran directly, a regional catastrophe would erupt. But the current reality teaches us something quite different. Israel is far from a fragile state. It is a regional power with a strong army and advanced defense systems, as well as a society with exceptional resilience.

Of course, war is always difficult. There are casualties, fear, and disruptions. But that is truly a far cry from the scenes of calamity that were sold to the public for years.

This is precisely where the great lie of the past thirty years is revealed. It is not necessarily a deliberate lie. It could be simply a worldview that hardened and became an accepted truth. An entire system of security, media, and academia began to believe in it itself. And this is how "conception" - or more precisely, "misconception" – is created.

It did not influence only our public opinion. It affected policy as well. It encouraged overcautiousness, putting off conflicts, and unending attempts to "contain" threats instead of definitively neutralizing them.

And another thing that this war has revealed is something no less disconcerting. It revealed the failure of the security-commentating industry in Israel. For years, the same analysts, many of whom are retired generals and the like, have been appearing almost every night on our TV screens. They dissected every movement made by the IDF and our enemies – and it turns out that they are wrong almost every step of the way in their main prognoses.

They warned of hundreds of missiles a day; the reality is much lower. They warned of economic collapse; actually, the economy continues to function. They spoke of panic on the home front; in practice, public resilience is the name of the game.

It's not that we can gloat. Mistakes happen. But when the same mistakes repeat themselves again and again, over the course of many years, we are obliged to ask: Who determines the security discourse in Israel? Is it the army? The Mossad? The Shabak?

Sadly, no. In recent decades, the Israeli media has become an almost exclusive platform for a small group of commentators – and they set the tone. Most of them come from the same social networks and the same worldview. Instead of representing and inviting intellectual diversity, they formed a closed club. Predictably, with everyone thinking the same way, the mistakes that they invariably make in direction and conception find no one left to correct them.

The result, then, is a public that has been fed extreme and chilling forecasts. The "pre-conceptions" had become set too deeply. Only when actual reality happens differently than had been predicted, do we wake up to see that we were wrong all along. Inner Israeli strength is greater than we were told, our military prowess is better than we thought, and even the Iranian threat, as grave as it was, turned out not to be the end of the world.

This also provides an important lesson for the future: Israel cannot afford to continue to wage its security policies based on fear. A country surrounded by enemies cannot base its strategies on reticence to fight when necessary. Our history actually teaches the exact opposite: True deterrence happens not when we try to "contain" the enemy, but when he understands, on his own flesh, that we are not afraid to wage even the largest-scale conflicts.

The current war is far from over, and we can't yet give out grades. But one thing we do know already, and that is that a long-standing myth has been broken. We are no longer afraid of a regional war – not because war is easy, but because both our military and our society are much stronger than we have been told for too many years.

And perhaps the most important lesson is simply an intellectual one: A country must be wary of its own "conceptions." These are liable to take over the public discourse, our national security thinking, and then our actual decisions. Doing so through warped glasses is very dangerous indeed.

Thirty years of media defense commentary have taught the Israeli public to fear a regional war. But we are now learning something completely different. Sometimes the greatest threat is not the enemy before you, but the stories they tell you on television.

Three Hostages Remain – Let's Not Forget Them

by Shmuel Sackett, co-founder of both the Zo Artzeinu and Manhigut Yehudit political movements, translated by Hillel Fendel.

If you were to ask someone on the street today, "What about the hostages?" – they would look at you as if you had fallen off the moon. "We returned all of them already! Don't you remember that we screamed out Bring Them Home! and they all came back?"

Well, not quite. We thank G-d that all the Simchat Torah/October 7th hostages have returned, dead or alive – but that doesn't mean that there aren't others who were abducted much longer ago and who still have not returned. One of them is known to have been executed – Eli Cohen, some 60 years ago (!) – and two others are unofficially presumed dead, yet we have no concrete information on their fates: Yehuda Katz and Ron Arad. Their families – at least those who are still alive – are still waiting... Do the rest of us remember them?

Eli Cohen was one of the greatest spies in the history of the State of Israel. He moved to Damascus in February 1962 in the guise of a Syrian-Argentinian businessman known as Kamel Amin Thaabet. With his great wisdom and personal charm, he succeeded in forging connections with Syrian politicians, senior officers, and public figures in Damascus. His assimilation was so successful that the Syrians almost appointed him their Deputy Minister of Defense! They placed complete trust in him and shared important military and other secrets with him. Cohen immediately passed the information on to his superiors in the Mossad, and today we know that the intelligence he provided was one of the key factors in Israel's swift victory over Syria in the Six Day War.

In January 1965, Syrian officials, suspecting the presence of a high-level spy, used newly-acquired Soviet tracking equipment to monitor illegal radio transmissions. They quickly detected a suspicious signal, and security forces traced it to Cohen’s apartment, catching him in the act of transmitting to Israel. He was arrested, interrogated, and brutally tortured. Within a short time, he was charged with treason and sentenced to death, and, despite an international campaign calling for clemency, he was publicly hanged in a central square in Damascus.

Where is Eli Cohen today? In truth, his grave belongs on Mt. Herzl in Jerusalem with many other Israeli heroes, but unfortunately this is not the case. The Syrians have been holding his body for over 60 years, repeatedly refusing to release it. He is our #1 hostage, but no one cries out "Bring Him Home!" or even wears a yellow pin for him.

Over 20 years later, on Oct. 16, 1986, Israel Air Force pilot Yishai Avraham and navigator Ron Arad were dispatched on a mission to attack PLO targets in southern Lebanon. However, a bomb on their Phantom F-4 exploded pre-maturely beneath them, forcing the two to bail out by parachute. IDF forces quickly located and rescued Avraham under heavy fire, but Arad was caught by local Lebanese. He ultimately ended up in the hands of Hizbullah – and that's the last we know of him. It is assumed that he was transferred to Iran and then back to Hizbullah, in whose hands he likely died from starvation and lack of medical treatment. His wife Tami is still considered an agunah, in that there is no proof that her husband is dead. I still pray for Ron Arad as if he were alive: Ron ben [son of] Batya.

Where is he today? Dead or alive, he is still being held by Hizbullah, instead of at home with his family or buried on Mt. Herzl. He is Israel's Hostage #2: No one demonstrates for him, no one wears a "Free the Hostages!" pin for him, and too many Israelis under age 30 don't even know his name.

Our hostage #3 is Yehuda Katz, who was taken prisoner by Syrian forces during Sultan Yaaqub battle in the 1982 Peace for Galilee War in southern Lebanon. This tragic and difficult battle ended in the deaths of 21 IDF soldiers and the capture of several more. Among them were Zecharia Baumel, whose body was returned only in 2019; Tzvika Feldman, whose body was returned less than a year ago – both of these followed heroic IDF operations; and Yehuda Katz, whose fate is still unknown.

The Syrians had sent some 30,000 troops to Lebanon in order to help the PLO, together with very significant tank and artillery forces. The Sultan Yaaqub battle is considered one of the most difficult and costly battles fought by the IDF. The Syrians, for their part, did not lose their appetite for killing and humiliating Israeli forces even after it was over, and they paraded Baumel, Feldman and Katz through the streets of Damascus in a victory march, in which Syrian citizens felt at liberty to beat and humiliate them.

For a while, a public outcry for their freedom pressured the Israeli government to act. After several years, however, the IDF came to assume that the three were no longer alive. Where is Yehuda Katz today? Is his body being held in some out-of-the way cemetery in Syria, or perhaps it was transferred to Hizbullah? No one knows. But one thing is clear: The Israeli public has all but forgotten him. Like Eli Cohen and Ron Arad, no one hangs pictures of Yehuda Katz along the highways, no one demonstrates on his behalf, and to the best of my knowledge there is no one in the country wearing a yellow ribbon or a pin for Captive #3.

There is no one happier than I am about the return home of the Simchat Torah captives, both those who remained alive and those who died there for the Sanctification of G-d's name. We must thank G-d for this open miracle. At the same time, please do not fool yourselves into thinking that "all" the captives are now home; it's simply not true. Let us continue to pray for the return of Eliyahu HaCohen ben Sofia, Ron ben Batya, and Yekutiel Yehuda Nachman HaCohen ben Sarah, and ask G-d to bring these heroes back to Israel so that they may finally receive the last honors they deserve.