by Ahikam Himmelfarb, originally published in Hebrew in B'sheva magazine, translated by Hillel Fendel
The Hamas Arab riots against Israel at the Gaza border fence have started up again. Many interests are at play there, beginning with internal Gazan politics and all the way up to regional and national scheming involving even Qatar. Israel's largely passive containment policy is liable to lead to a worsening of the situation, including possibly a major military offensive.
Between 2018 and 2021, the Hamas leadership that controls the Gaza Strip was behind the violent riots at the border fence. Thousands of Gazan Arabs took part in those events, demanding to return to the villages they abandoned in 1948. The riots were often violent, and included the hurling of explosive charges and Molotov cocktails at IDF soldiers; hundreds of Arab attackers were killed or injured in response. The protests originally broke out in protest of the move by US President Trump of the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and against the blockade imposed by both Egypt and Israel on the Gaza Strip. Now in 2023, with the aim of blackmailing Israel and attaining achievements that will be detailed below, the Hamas leadership is trying to reenact those demonstrations.
The first to initiate the 2018 protests were grassroots groups in Gaza, and not Hamas. As the protests gathered support, however, the Hamas leadership began to fear that the residents' anger would soon be turned against Hamas itself, in light of their long-standing criticism of Hamas. This was a time when the Badna Naish (We Want to Live) movement was gaining steam on social media, protesting against the generally poor living conditions in Gaza. Hamas thus decided, "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em – and better yet, lead 'em." And so Hamas, together with other extremist groups, spread its sponsorship over the fence events. The violence intensified, and on one day in May 2018, 62 Arabs were killed when they made a full-blown attempt, with weapons and gunfire, to break through the fence and swarm into Israel.
After a two-year hiatus, near-riots have now started up again, though currently on a much lower scale than the previous ones.
Prof. Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the National Security Research Institute, says that Hamas often begins to incite hatred against Israel whenever it begins to feel internal opposition intensifying. But beyond that, he says, "there are another four primary reasons for [the Hamas-motivated protests and riots against Israel]. One of them is that they serve as a lever by which to pressure Israel for additional economic benefits, such as an increase in permits for work in Israel, more gas, or more raw materials allowed to be brought in to Gaza. In general this system works for them: By allowing this to happen, we pave the way for them to seemingly legitimately challenge us again and again - and each time more gravely."
"Another reason for Hamas to support the protests is that they also put pressure on Qatar. The Qataris are very angry at the Hamas leadership, and especially the Gaza leadership, because of its increasingly close relations with Syria, a great enemy of Syria. Qatar is one of the few Arab nations that did not renew its diplomatic ties with Syria. Qatar is interested, like Israel and Egypt, in retaining calm and peace, of which these border protests are the antithesis." That is, in a sense, Hamas is seeking to blackmail the Qataris into renewing their monthly cash handouts, by causing trouble and instability on the border.
The third reason, according to Prof. Michael, is to prove to the Palestinian Arabs in Judea and Samaria that the Gazans are also contributing to the effort against Israel – even though a full-scale conflict with Israel is not a Hamas interest at this point. And the fourth reason that Hamas is organizing the violence on the Gaza border, such as by clearing areas in which to riot and organizing buses to the "front," has to do with conflicts within the Hamas leadership itself. Although the official leader is Yichye Sinwar, Salah al-Aghrouri is a very dominant figure there, and his interests lie with Iran, Hizbullah, and the Islamic Jihad, all of which seek to increase violence against Israel on all fronts.
The number of participants in the protests is relatively small, something like a few hundred. However, the quality of the weapons and explosives used is high, and Prof. Michael assumes that either Iranian equipment or knowhow, or both, have made their way into Gaza.
"Hamas can feel quite comfortable with the current situation," he says, "because it estimates that Israel will simply contain it and not respond more sharply than with an occasional attack on empty Hamas positions along the border. Hamas assumes that Israel, together with its current internal crisis, is addicted to the relative quiet in Gaza and is willing to absorb the occasional hostilities without reacting too strongly."
"Over the years, Israel has formed for Hamas a comfort zone in which it can act freely and challenge Israel a bit more each time. So Israel closes the Erez Crossing and doesn't allow workers to cross over, thus causing more economic pressure and incentivizing Hamas to increase its fence violence. As long as Hamas' operative assumption is that Israel will contain these events, Hamas will continue to challenge us at the fence. This will lead either to an event that spirals out of control into a much broader battle, or to a decision by Israel that the time has come to change the rules and respond much more strongly."
The View from the Other Side
We also spoke with L., an Arab journalist living in Gaza, who requested that we not specify his name to avoid the danger of Hamas learning that he spoke with an Israeli media outlet. Asked what the general populace feels about the border fence violence, he said, "There are different approaches. Some people support them because they are truly poor, and they hope that Israel will grant them several benefits and reliefs as a result of the protests. UNRWA used to give food to [grandchildren and great-grandchildren of] refugees, but this has partially stopped of late, and some people really need it. Aside from this most indigent class, there are also public servants of the Hamas government that support the protests because the financial crisis has led to their receiving only 55% of their salaries. They, too, hope that the pressure on Israel will work and that some of the economic penalties will be withdrawn."
Q. Why are they receiving only 55% of their salaries?
A. "Qatar used to give Hamas in Gaza $30 million in cash every month, but this amount has now dropped to $10 million, leaving much less for salaries. This is a recipe for catastrophe. If until now, the average civil servant received 2,000 shekels a month, and now he's left with about 1,000, what can he live on? He has to pay for electricity, water, services, internet, and rent, and of course food for himself and his family. What remains is simply not enough. This is why many in Gaza hope that these demonstrations will bear fruit and cause Israel to relieve some tensions."
Q. You implied that there are those who oppose the violence at the border fence.
A. "Yes, there are many who have been harmed by it. There are some 18,000 workers working in Israel, about 8,000 of whom returned home for the Jewish holidays – and now won't be allowed back in to Israel. These workers brought in $1.5 million into Gaza. The people who were counting on this money also have families to feed and bills to pay, and naturally want to avoid political tensions. Of course, they can't come and say straight out that they're against the protests, because they live in Gaza. They can only say that they want to stay away from political disputes - and even this they direct only at Israel, not to elements in Gaza."
Just two days ago, after a round of negotiations regarding a possible halt to the border violence, Hamas announced that it would either renew or not stop the protests "because of Jews visiting the Temple Mount."