Don't Reward Hamas!

by Nadav Rath, Strategic Business and Personal Decisions Consultant , translated by Hillel Fendel.

Some in Israel's nationalist camp are falling into the same trap that Hamas successfully set for Israel's left-wing sector over the past year. We must be careful not to identify with the victory messages of Hamas, but rather continue to broadcast strength and might.

Over the past year, every time Hamas sent us a video [not shown in Israel, thankfully] of poor hostages forced to parrot words fed them by the terrorists demanding that Israel's government agree to a deal for their release, we of the right-wing camp all wondered: Could it possibly be that those clamoring for a deal no matter what, don't realize that their messages totally jibe with those of Hamas?

Both Hamas and the hostage-families/supporters screamed out together: "At any price!" "Now!" "The government of Israel are murderers!" They also rammed down our throats that the IDF offensives are killing or maiming the hostages. Many of us understood from the beginning that they were seeking to manipulate us with psychological warfare, and we didn't fall for their tricks. Official Israel did not agree to disseminate the videos. But many others didn't seem to notice.

After a few months, it became extra clear that this was a well-planned strategy of the enemy, with the goal of sowing chaos and discord within the Israeli public. Once this happened, we were able to continue with the war with extra energies, knowing that the enemy was strong and determined to deceive us – and that we must not fall into their propaganda trap. War always demands strength and determination, and certainly not lowliness and solidarity with the enemy's goals.

But this morning, I was very sad to find that many of us have apparently begun to suffer from a type of temporary blindness. Maybe it was the publication of the names of the arch-terrorists and murderers who are about to be released, or maybe it was the celebrations in Gaza that so confused us. All I know is that even some of my good friends began to share Hamas propaganda – videos of happy terrorists roaming the streets of Gaza, waving their hands in the joy of victory.

What is the purpose of spreading these scenes on our phones? We all knew and internalized that the purpose of the videos of the hostages were designed to harm us and our unity, our strength, our faith, our determination. Has anything changed now? In what way is the dissemination of videos of what Hamas considers victory (despite the ruins and the stench of death all around them) a good idea? These scenes were released by Hamas for precisely one purpose: to harm us and our morale, to strike at us psychologically and spiritually, to seek to ensure that we will not want to renew the war in six weeks' time. What they want is for us to fight amongst ourselves again as to who was at fault, and to leave them in "peace."

We are going through difficult days as it is, without the need to disseminate Hamas propaganda amongst ourselves. Yes, we must object to this terrible ceasefire and wholesale terrorist release, and the noble protests by some families of hostages and of fallen soldiers were of inestimable importance; it is inconceivable that such a decision would go unprotested. Now, however, we must resolve that our role is to continue to strengthen our nation in the justness of its path and struggle – and not to weaken ourselves, lower our spirits, or act as if all our efforts until now were in vain.

I have made a simple decision: I won't share any Hamas propaganda such as photos of their celebrations. I will rather focus on the tremendous destruction we have rained down on the Hamas terrorist infrastructure in Gaza, including the flattening of much of Gaza, the killing of tens of thousands of Hamas supporters, and the elimination of most of Hamas's leaders. I will continue to work to bolster our national spirit and ensure that we renew the war. Yes, we made a tactical blunder by agreeing to this deal – but we will not let it affect the entire war, of which we are still in the midst. "Let us be strong," we read in Samuel II, "for the sake of our nation and the cities of our G-d."

The Hostage Deal is Very Bad – But Could Become the Lever for Victory

by Moshe Gutman, Fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security, translated by Hillel Fendel.

In October 1973, during the Yom Kippur War, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. David (Dado) Elazar made a difficult decision: He ordered an end to the thankless and grinding efforts to try to save the all-but-doomed fortified positions along the Suez Canal. Instead, the positions were surrendered, and the IDF was then then able to focus on stabilizing an effective line of defense and preparing a counter-attack that would totally reverse the situation.

This painful decision later turned out to be a critical stage in Israel's ultimate victory. In an impressive display of military insight, Dado knew that he had to lose that particular battle in order to win the overall campaign.

The current deal that saw the release of three women from Hamas captivity on Sunday is done. There's no turning back, as of now. The agreement calls for the release of another 30 hostages – most of them alive, apparently – in exchange for six weeks of a ceasefire and the freeing of nearly 2,000 imprisoned terrorists, including over 700 who murdered dozens of Israelis. This terrible deal for Israel is a dangerous concession to Hamas, which will encourage and motivate our enemies, and weaken our deterrence power.

But under the circumstances, given that those responsible for the negotiations led us into a dead end from which there has long been no turning back, it is no longer relevant to discuss how terrible it is. The only question we must concentrate on is how we can turn this failure into an opportunity.

Perhaps this deal provides us with the chance to correct some of the military campaign's failures thus far. It's been some weeks now that our military efforts in Gaza have not been producing significant results, yet have been costing us increasing number of soldiers' lives. This reveals that the army's approach continues to be based on a problematic military "conception." What the Chief of Staff terms "the incursions system" – conquering and cleansing an area, then retreating, with predictable consequences – is actually an expression of indecision and the absence of a victory plan, and it is not in line with the war goals defined by the government. Instead of a head-on strategy that will defeat Hamas, the IDF is settling for a "one-step-forward, two-steps-backwards" approach that merely lengthens the combat, wears down our forces, and plays in to the hands of Hamas. For Hamas loves the idea of a war of attrition, celebrates the death of every individual soldier, and is interested in the scorched earth it leaves behind less than last year's snow. All of this, Israel still has not internalized.

On the other hand, if we employ the principles of judo – where each side uses the momentum employed by the other in order to overcome him – we can turn the current lemon into lemonade. Instead of using this deal simply to bring about a ceasefire, it can cease something else: Israel's treading in place. Chapter Two of this war must mark the beginning of a new era in the campaign for a quick and uncompromising dash towards victory. It has to be swift, determined, and lethal.

With this understanding, we might also be able to explain the puzzling support of President Trump for the deal. After all, Trump is an undying critic of weakness and concessions in negotiations, and yet he has taken credit for the terms of the deal as designed by his bitter rival, outgoing president Joe Biden. Why? 

The answer can perhaps be found in Trump's Art of the Deal philosophy. He holds that if you have reached an impasse in negotiations, the best way out is to get up from the table, walk out, and start again. That's the "reset" approach, as anyone who has ever had a problem with a computer knows.

In the case at hand, Trump, who has always admired strength and quick achievements, is apparently losing patience with Israel's water-treading approach in Gaza. Acting as if you're doing something but actually getting nowhere is for weaklings, he holds, and he now wants to stop the whole story and turn over a new page.

From his standpoint, if Israel is not able to win a quick victory under the current circumstances, he would like to see a reset – a ceasefire that would allow a reorganization, a return to a strategy of firmness, and an operative plan that is decisive. This is how we can best explain and understand the gap between his statements and the more belligerent positions taken by his top officials.

The key to turning bitter into sweet in this conflict lies in the conditions and guarantees regarding Chapter Two of the Gaza war. Just as Dado did not abandon the outposts in 1973 without a clear plan for victory, so too today: This terrible deal that has been forced upon us must be fenced with clear and irreversible obligations to renew the war until victory is achieved. Mechanisms must be put in place to ensure that the truce is only temporary and that the main Israeli achievements are preserved; if they are not, the ceasefire will truly be our defeat.

The main question, therefore, is whether the current leadership has the courage and the vision to turn the failure of Oct. 7^th into an opportunity. Will it know how to use the ceasefire forced upon it to reorganize correctly, with a new strategy for a decisive victory? Or will it succumb to the temptation to allow it to become permanent? Without firm determination in this area, even Trump's support will be of little use, and the bad deal will remain that, marking a historic surrender that will haunt us for generations.

The members of our government – and especially Finance Minister Smotrich, who has said that he will resign if the war is not resumed, and who therefore plays a kingpin role – bear a heavy responsibility. They must ensure that there are mechanisms in place to assure that the war is renewed, and that this terrible deal actually becomes the basis for a tremendous reversal that will take us from darkness to light.