Not Good: Turkey Closing in on Syria

by Nitzan Kedar, journalist and author, translated by Hillel Fendel.

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria means that Syria no longer exists as the country we once knew – and that we have yet to see who will be our new neighbor to the northeast. If we worried that it would be the Islamist terrorists known as the "rebels," it now appears that our old adversary from Turkey – President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (pronounced Erdwan) – will be in charge. This is not especially cheerful news.

Erdogan's relations with Israel have known chiefly downs as far as Israel is concerned. We know that he has long conspired to revive and expand the Ottoman Turkish Empire (which fell apart over a century ago), and Syria now seems to have fallen into his hands like ripe fruit. If he succeeds in forming a Sunni axis together with Qatar, following his successes in taking advantage of current Russian and Israeli weaknesses in light of their respective wars, and of Iran's loss of regional influence, this is liable to mark the beginning of "Turkish Syria."

Erdogan hold another card as well, namely, support from the "rebels," led by the new Syrian leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, he will apparently grant Erdogan the rights to build Turkish military bases in Syria and to redraw the maritime borders between Syria and Turkey.

The Turkish president's plan is to take over oil-rich northeastern Syria, while declaring war on the Kurds, his nemesis who currently control the region. What is stopping him is only the fear that the United States will intervene in favor of the Kurds. It's true that President-elect Trump, in his previous term, essentially abandoned the Kurds, and has even said that "the United States has nothing to look for in Syria." However, this is not the approach of the Pentagon, and some Republican senators have already said that they are working with Trump to change his mind. The situation remains murky, but Erdogan is planning to do all he can to ensure maximum Turkish presence in Syria.

Turkish foreign-affairs expert Dr. Chai Eitan Cohen Yanarocak says that even back in 2011, after the civil war broke out in Syria, "Erdogan took a hostile approach to Assad… The Turks view Syria as historically Sunni, not Alawi, and saw the Arab Spring as a type of opportunity to return the crown to its former glory. And if the Turks can't return to Syria themselves, they'll settle for having Turkish loyalists in power there. They also wanted to throw the Iranians out of Turkey's back door – and now they see their chance to do all this."

"The Turks say to themselves," Yanarocak continues, "'If we invested so much here, including lives of our soldiers, the time has now come to reap the profits.' So they will deepen their hold in Syria via a host of projects in construction and infrastructures such as building airports, radar installations, highways, new military bases, electricity, and searching for oil and gas. These are all a way of telling the Syrians, 'we're here to stay.'"

Asked whether Erdogan is seeking to replace Russia, which was heavily involved in Syria in recent years, Yanarocak responded: "The situation with Russia is still unclear. A significant portion of the Russian forces have left Syria, but they still remain strong in two regions. No one knows now what will be with the army bases there. Clearly the Russians will try to banish the Turks, but the latter are very anxious to replace the Russians and will do all they can for that purpose."

Erdogan also would love to abolish the Kurdish autonomy in Syria, although, as stated the Americans represent a threat to these plans. Asked about Foreign Minister Gideon Saar's recent declaration that Israel will support the Kurds, Yanarocak said that such statements "cause great harm to the State of Israel, because they increase Turkish hostility towards us. In my opinion, because the Kurds have no access to the sea and because they are absolutely dependent upon Turkey and the rebels' new regime, they will not be able to supply us, Israel, with any advantage."

Yanarocak is not optimistic about the American role in the future Syria: "Without the Turks, the U.S. will have no word with the new Syria. We know Trump as a businessman, and he will want to maximize American interests in the region. I don't think he cares that much about the Kurdish nation. A few years ago, when the Turks demanded that the U.S. withdraw from the area, Trump did so. The Americans folded and the Turks entered. Afterwards, when the Pentagon exerted pressure, Trump stopped the Turks. Perhaps now, however, Trump will view the situation differently, because so many things have changed there."

"In short," Yanarocak concluded, "there is no doubt that the relations between Israel and Turkey will be even more tense than they are now."

From Interrogation to Target

by Haggai Huberman , journalist and author, translated by Hillel Fendel.

The latest annual Shabak report reveals new anti-terrorist and anti-espionage methods and impressive successes.

The Shabak (Israel's General Security Service, also known as Shin Bet, corresponding to the American FBI) released its annual summary report this past week, entitled, "The Shabak in a Multi-Front War." It contains some interesting facts and insights regarding the war in Gaza, the anti-terrorism war in Judea and Samaria, the Arabs of Israel, and increased Iranian attempts to recruit spies in Israel.

The most significant change in 2024 was the fact that most intelligence from Gaza is now gathered physically from within Gaza. Under the current war conditions, Shabak agents entered the area, together with IDF forces, in order to recruit and activate agents "on the spot." This is the first time since the Disengagement withdrawal, nearly 20 years ago, that this is happening – and not at all by coincidence. The withdrawal engineered by then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, a Yom Kippur war hero, was the beginning of the process that ended on Simchat Torah of 2023 with the unforeseen slaughter of 1,200 Israelis and the kidnapping of 250 more. This occurred at least partly because barely any valuable intelligence information was obtainable from Gaza for nearly two decades.

This is of course further proof that no technological means, no matter how up-to-date, can ever replace the "personal contact" between the Shin Bet and its agents – spies – on the ground. Signals intelligence (SIGINT) cannot exclusively take the place of human intelligence (HUMINT), and the Shabak learned, and implemented, this over the past year.

In 2024, the joint Shabak-IDF activity resulted in over 1,350 arrestees, including some 40 senior operatives and commanders, 165 close associates of senior officials, 45 involved in the Oct. 7 slaughter, and 100 who apparently have information regarding the hostages.

Saving Lives in Real Time

The main question facing the Shabak over the years was how to make the best, and fastest, use of the information garnered during interrogations. For it is clear that much of the intelligence gathered in this way has no value at all if not utilized as quickly as possible. For this purpose, a new unit was established in the Shin Bet entitled "From Interrogation to Target," which, as its name implies, aims to formulate targets as immediately as possible. The current report reveals that during the war, hundreds of targets in Gaza have been attacked whose information came directly from Shabak investigations. As a result, over 30 (!) top Hamas terrorists in Gaza have been liquidated, as well as hundreds of others on slightly lower levels.

In addition, the investigations led to life-saving information that was passed on to IDF forces on the ground, including warnings about booby-trapped houses, and more.

Not only that, seven hostages were freed by Israeli forces in three different operations, planned and led by the Shabak. Valuable information was also obtained that led to the finding of nine bodies of hostages that were rescued from Gaza and brought to burial in Israel.

Another mission that the Shabak took on was to "pay back" those who took part in the Simchat Torah slaughter. A special command office was set up for this purpose, and succeeded in killing dozens of those known as Nukhba terrorists.

As far as Lebanon and the northern front is concerned, the Shabak significantly stepped up its work there this past year, especially in light of increased Hamas activity in Lebanon. The Shabak increased its intelligence gathering and thwarting of terrorist actions in the Land of the Cedars.

Yesha: Over 1,000 Attacks Thwarted

The report features some amazing stats related to the Yesha (Judea and Samaria) front, where the Shabak thwarted 1,040 significant attacks this year. These included 689 attempted shootings, 326 bomb attacks, 13 stabbings, 9 attempted car-rammings, two suicide attacks, and even an attempted kidnapping. Dozens of special IDF-Shabak operations were carried out in Yesha, including 13 airstrikes.

* Let the reader imagine that these numbers did not measure "thwarted attacks," but rather attacks that were actually carried out. The State of Israel would have been in a very different place during this past year-plus of war…

And what about the Israeli-Arabs? We tend to think that they have sat quietly during this past year, but this is true only for the general populace, which did not riot as it did throughout Israel during the "Guardians of the Wall." But in terms of individuals, some 20 Israeli-Arab terrorist gangs were uncovered as they planned attacks against their fellow citizens, including five rings that planned car-bombs and other bombings. Again, it is not hard to guess the catastrophic effects if five car-bombs had exploded in Israel during the course of the war.

During the course of 2024, some 80 cases involving Israeli-Arabs were investigated, including 26 in which the suspects swore allegiance to or planned to carry out terrorist activity inspired by global jihad and the Islamic State (ISIS) within Israel.

Administrative Detention for Arms Dealing

This year also saw, for the first time, administrative detention for arms dealers, as part of the war against criminal activity that spills over into terrorist activity.

The Shabak report reveals much about Iran's increased attempts – and successes – to recruit spies within Israel. During the course of 2024, 13 grave espionage cases involving Israelis working on behalf of Iran were uncovered. No fewer than 37 Israelis were investigated, and 27 have been charged with very serious crimes with possible life imprisonment sentences. These represent an approximate 400% rise over the year 2023. The discovery of these spy rings, or individuals, led to the thwarting of attacks of terrorism, espionage, and even assassination.

It is estimated that dozens of Israelis were in touch with Iranian intelligence agents during these past 15 months of war, and that hundreds of others were contacted by them. The publication of these stories has led to increased public awareness of the seriousness of the Iranian intentions, and therefore the nipping in the bud of other potential Iranian spies among Israelis.