by Nitzan Kedar, journalist and author, translated by Hillel Fendel.
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria means that Syria no longer exists as the country we once knew – and that we have yet to see who will be our new neighbor to the northeast. If we worried that it would be the Islamist terrorists known as the "rebels," it now appears that our old adversary from Turkey – President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (pronounced Erdwan) – will be in charge. This is not especially cheerful news.
Erdogan's relations with
Israel have known chiefly downs as far as Israel is concerned. We know that he
has long conspired to revive and expand the Ottoman Turkish Empire (which fell
apart over a century ago), and Syria now seems to have fallen into his hands
like ripe fruit. If he succeeds in forming a Sunni axis together with Qatar,
following his successes in taking advantage of current Russian and Israeli
weaknesses in light of their respective wars, and of Iran's loss of regional influence,
this is liable to mark the beginning of "Turkish Syria."
Erdogan hold another
card as well, namely, support from the "rebels," led by the new
Syrian leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, he
will apparently grant Erdogan the rights to build Turkish military bases in
Syria and to redraw the maritime borders between Syria and Turkey.
The Turkish president's
plan is to take over oil-rich northeastern Syria, while declaring war on the
Kurds, his nemesis who currently control the region. What is stopping him is
only the fear that the United States will intervene in favor of the Kurds. It's
true that President-elect Trump, in his previous term, essentially abandoned
the Kurds, and has even said that "the United States has nothing to look
for in Syria." However, this is not the approach of the Pentagon, and some
Republican senators have already said that they are working with Trump to
change his mind. The situation remains murky, but Erdogan is planning to do all
he can to ensure maximum Turkish presence in Syria.
Turkish foreign-affairs
expert Dr. Chai Eitan Cohen Yanarocak says that even back in 2011, after the
civil war broke out in Syria, "Erdogan took a hostile approach to Assad…
The Turks view Syria as historically Sunni, not Alawi, and saw the Arab Spring
as a type of opportunity to return the crown to its former glory. And if the
Turks can't return to Syria themselves, they'll settle for having Turkish
loyalists in power there. They also wanted to throw the Iranians out of
Turkey's back door – and now they see their chance to do all this."
"The Turks say to
themselves," Yanarocak continues, "'If we invested so much here,
including lives of our soldiers, the time has now come to reap the profits.' So
they will deepen their hold in Syria via a host of projects in construction and
infrastructures such as building airports, radar installations, highways, new
military bases, electricity, and searching for oil and gas. These are all a way
of telling the Syrians, 'we're here to stay.'"
Asked whether Erdogan is
seeking to replace Russia, which was heavily involved in Syria in recent years,
Yanarocak responded: "The situation with Russia is still unclear. A
significant portion of the Russian forces have left Syria, but they still remain
strong in two regions. No one knows now what will be with the army bases there.
Clearly the Russians will try to banish the Turks, but the latter are very
anxious to replace the Russians and will do all they can for that
purpose."
Erdogan also would love to
abolish the Kurdish autonomy in Syria, although, as stated the Americans
represent a threat to these plans. Asked about Foreign Minister Gideon Saar's
recent declaration that Israel will support the Kurds, Yanarocak said that such
statements "cause great harm to the State of Israel, because they increase
Turkish hostility towards us. In my opinion, because the Kurds have no access
to the sea and because they are absolutely dependent upon Turkey and the
rebels' new regime, they will not be able to supply us, Israel, with any
advantage."
Yanarocak is not
optimistic about the American role in the future Syria: "Without the
Turks, the U.S. will have no word with the new Syria. We know Trump as a
businessman, and he will want to maximize American interests in the region. I
don't think he cares that much about the Kurdish nation. A few years ago, when
the Turks demanded that the U.S. withdraw from the area, Trump did so. The
Americans folded and the Turks entered. Afterwards, when the Pentagon exerted
pressure, Trump stopped the Turks. Perhaps now, however, Trump will view the
situation differently, because so many things have changed there."
"In short,"
Yanarocak concluded, "there is no doubt that the relations between Israel
and Turkey will be even more tense than they are now."