by Emmanuel Shiloh, editor of the Besheva weekly, translated by Hillel Fendel.
The current offensive in the war against Hamas – Gideon's Chariots – might be the last chance Israel has to destroy the enemy.
If the Government of Israel wishes to defeat Hamas, it must conduct
this war with the understanding that the window of opportunity to do so is
narrowing, if not closing. It is very likely that Gideon's Chariots might very
well be our last opportunity for a very long time to win.
Why is this? The international
diplomatic pressure upon Israel is intensifying, as is the pressure from
within. The extreme-left wing of the anti-government "Free the Captives at
Any Price!" protests is becoming even more extreme and unrestrained. It is
already now both denouncing Israel as committing war crimes, and promoting
refusal to serve in the army during the war. This is in addition to its ongoing
campaign for the hostages, which regularly floods public opinion with emotion,
disrupts its logical judgment, and aggressively demands that victory be forsaken
and our national security be abandoned – all so that the hostages will return,
which they feel justifies absolutely any price.
Another hourglass is also running out
as well: that of the soldiers, and particularly the reservists, many of whom
have served months and months at a time. The burden upon them, and their wives
at home, is becoming greater and harder by the day. The percentage of
reservists who showed up for duty for this offensive was high, because they
sensed that this time it would be serious and that the government would really
be going all the way towards victory.
But if it turns out that this is just
another round of a never-ending war of attrition, it is highly doubtful that it
will be possible to mobilize most of the reservists for another round. Not to
mention that the well-oiled campaign to forcibly draft the hareidim "right
now" is creating, by design, a feeling among the reservists that they are
being taken advantage of, and is decreasing their motivation to fight.
It's not so pleasant to tell the new
Chief of Staff, Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, that he only has this one chance to win,
after his predecessor was given almost unlimited resources of time. But Zamir
knew the situation he was entering, and took on the job with the promise that
he would know how to achieve victory under the given circumstances.
It does not look, however, as if the government
realizes that this is perhaps its last chance. All signs indicate that even
though the army has already begun deploying five divisions, and despite the
large-scale call-up of reserves, Israel is still ready to stop on a dime if
necessary. If and when Hamas feels that it has absolutely no choice and that
Israel is about to deal it a true knock-out punch, it knows that it can quickly
declare that it is accepting the Witkoff Outline. This will enable it to receive
a 60-day ceasefire and the release of hundreds of terrorists from prison, in
return for approximately half of our live hostages.
When such an option is always open to
Hamas, why should it ever surrender?
This is a
strategic blunder on Israel's part. Most unfortunately, it appears that the
objective of both Netanyahu and Chief of Staff Zamir is not to "win,"
at this point. They are rather seeking to impose military pressure upon Hamas
so that we can gain another ten hostages. If a 60-day ceasefire is agreed to, it
is far from clear whether we will be allowed to finish the job of destroying
Hamas afterwards.
Regarding the hostages, Israel's situation can be likened to
a man whose child has been kidnapped by a cruel man holding a gun to the
child's head and making a series of impossible demands. The father has the
choice of trying to convince, or reprimand, the kidnapper; trying to pull the
child away from him; or knocking the gun out of the kidnapper's hand. But the
most effective solution is to simply shoot the kidnapper in the head – and the
problem will be solved.
In the current situation, Israel should not be trying to drag out the time simply to squeeze out some more hostages at unbearably high prices. Rather, what Israel must do is to deliver a stunning knock-out blow and obliterate Hamas once and for all. The terrorists' hold upon the hostages will thus be weakened, and our captive brethren will return home.
In order to defeat Hamas, we don't have to kill every last terrorist, blow up every single tunnel, or capture or destroy all their weapons. Rather, as history has shown, victory in war can often be achieved when the enemy's "fighting spirit" has been decimated. When Hamas truly realizes that it has absolutely no chance of winning, it will simply quit, no matter what.
The recent elimination, three days
before Gideon's Chariots began, of Muhammad Sinwar, as well as of other top
Hamas terrorists, was just another in a long line of heavy blows suffered by
Hamas at our hands over the past 19 months. Its top military, political, and
organizational leadership has been almost completely eliminated, it has lost
tens of thousands of fighters, very little remains of its rocket threat, and a significant
portion of its weapons and bomb-making facilities have been destroyed or captured.
Vast areas of Gaza Strip cities have been reduced to ruins, and two million
Gazans have become refugees in their own country, forced to spend their time
finding food and shelter.
Why, then, have they not surrendered?
How is it that their fighting spirit still survives?
Some claim that because they are
Islamist fanatics, they will simply never give up – because at worst, they will
die a martyr's death, with all the heavenly delights that they have been
promised. But the fact is that this did not hold true for the now
all-but-defunct Hizbullah and ISIS, which were just as extremist.
Rather, the answer is very different:
The reason that Hamas has not yet given up is because there are elements that
support it and provide it with hope that all is not lost, and that if push
comes to shove, Israel will be the first to blink. One of the main players
giving Hamas this boost is, as mentioned, the campaign for the release of the
hostages at any cost.
The international pressure that takes on varying shapes and forms is also a source of great hope for Hamas that it will manage to finish this war while still standing on its feet. And within Israel, those seeking to topple the Netanyahu government, or to draft the hareidim, or to support refusal to serve in the IDF, all signal to Hamas, "Not all is lost! Netanyahu will soon be off the stage! Hold on just a bit longer!"
In order to break the spirit of
Hamas, it must be stopped from receiving support and reinforcement from these
elements. It must be clear to Hamas that nothing will stop Israel from
destroying it.
In order to win, if this is still possible, Netanyahu and Zamir have
to stop trying to reach another temporary deal with Hamas, even for the
exchange of some hostages. They must go full-force in the current military
campaign – as if this was their last chance, which it probably is. No further
rounds of fighting can be expected after this one.
Yes, this
risks the hostages' lives to a certain extent – but the time has long come to
stand by the ethical equation that says that our soldiers' blood is no less red
than that of the hostages. We cannot fight an eternal war of attrition that
continues to cost us in young soldiers' lives. The hostage situation is a
catastrophe – but so is an end to the current war without victory, which will
cost us in hundreds of lives, if not thousands, in the future.
Our objective now must be total
conquest of the Gaza Strip within a short number of weeks; the establishment of
a military regime there in place of Hamas; and allowing hundreds of thousands
of Gazan Arabs to leave for other countries if they wish. When this happens, we
will be able to finally declare victory, and the hostages will return home.