by Rivky Goldfinger, Besheva contributor, translated by Hillel Fendel.
Israel is at a crossroads: The ceasefire with Hamas is officially
over, yet 21 live hostages (including two foreign workers) remain in Gaza, and
talks are continuing. What will Israel's strategy be?
Hamas has refused Israel's offer to extend Stage I of the
ceasefire-hostage-release deal. It also does not accept U.S. envoy Steve
Witkoff's proposal for the release of additional hostages, in two groups, in
exchange for seven weeks of ceasefire.
Israel has announced its consent to Witkoff's plan, but has made
it clear that it has no plans at present to retreat from the Philadelphi route
separating Egypt from Gaza. As part of its pressure on Hamas, Israel has
stopped all humanitarian aid – of which several months' worth of supplies are
still available in Gaza – and has also cut off electricity to Gaza. To be sure,
Israel has not supplied much electricity to Gaza for nearly a year and a half,
ever since the war started, but has now cut off the final supply, which powers
desalination facilities there.
Israel has also made it very clear that it is preparing to resume its
military campaign, and this time with the declared intention of conquering the
entire Strip. Various officials have made statements to this effect, and
military preparations are underway in full force, under the aggressive leadership
of new IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir.
The coming days are critical to see which path Israel is to take:
that of a temporary ceasefire, the freeing of some hostages, and the leaving
behind of others – or war.
Brig.-Gen. (res.) Hezi Nehama, one of the leaders of the "Reserves
Commanders and Fighters Forum," spoke with us just before Israel announced
its absolute cut-off of electricity to Gaza. He said that what Israel is doing
now is intended to exhaust the efforts to release as many hostages as possible for
now, while keeping open the option of resumed warfare. "Israel is striving
to achieve the two main goals of the war – both the defeat of Hamas and the
completion of the return of the hostages."
Q. Even though these are basically contradictory goals?
A. "Practically speaking, the way in which Prime Minister
Netanyahu has been operating over the past year and a half under all the
tremendous pressures exerted upon him have led to a situation where he has both
not stopped the war and also succeeded in returning most of the hostages...
What is happening now is our trying to see if we can milk Stage I a little bit
more, to achieve the release of as many hostages as possible."
Q. Stopping the humanitarian aid – did that even have any effect?
After all, Hamas has stored up huge amounts of food, and other supplies.
A. "It's true that they have supplies for 4-5 months, at
least. But when you stop the supplies for a large population, it first of all
starts to cause unrest among the people and fears about what the future holds.
The prices of food and goods of course will go up, and that itself creates
panic among the Gazans.
"But at the same time, we certainly must stop, very soon, all
water to places where we don't want Gazans to be. Water can't be stored up in
Gaza. They have water in two ways: either via pipelines from Israel to Gaza, or
by desalination facilities that require electricity. Israel's next move must
therefore be to cut off electricity and water to Gaza."
Q. How should the next round of fighting look, from Israel's
standpoint?
A. "It has to be done very differently. We will have to detach the general
populace from the terrorists, and supply water only to places that Israel
approves. Water must be supplied to the humanitarian camps, but not to any
place where we don't want civilians. This will cause them to evacuate and
enable us to fight the enemy, which will be weakened from lack of food and
water.
Q. What about Israel's insistence on remaining in the Philadelphi
Route?
A. We must not leave Philadelphi! If we do, Hamas will transfer
hostages, live and dead, to Iran and elsewhere. Iran will put hostages at their
nuclear facilities with warnings that if we attack their sites, the hostages
will die. And then what – the public cries will resume that the hostages must
be freed at any price and we can't bomb Iran? No, Philadelphi cannot be opened
in any way whatsoever. Netanyahu insisted throughout the war on these two
critical principles: the war cannot stop, and we cannot leave Philadelphi.
These are of critical strategic importance, and his insistence is very
correct."
Q. What do you think about the Witkoff proposal? Does it serve
Israel's interests?
A. "Israel must adopt his plan and thus, first of all, to
receive half of the remaining hostages. It's exactly like the question we faced
regarding Stage I because of the great challenges we would face in Stage II;
right now, we have to get what we can. After we do that, we can talk more about
what's next. As long as we can get some hostages home, we must exhaust this
option – on condition that we don't totally stop the war and don't leave
Philadelphi."
Q. Is there a chance for Stage II?
A. "No, for three main reasons. One, Hamas does not have all
the hostages –meaning that it literally does not know where some of the corpses
are buried. Two, Hamas will never give up its insurance policy: the hostages.
The terrorists will always make sure to keep some of them, dead and alive, so
that it can continue playing its game and trying to remain alive. This will go
on for as long as we have not totally defeated Hamas. And three, Hamas is
currently not willing to cede its control in Gaza, while Israel, for its part,
is not willing to allow it to have control in Gaza. This gap cannot be bridged
in any form. It could be that Stage I will be extended in some way or another,
but there will be no permanent agreement to end the fighting. I therefore believe
that within a month, Israel will return to very strong warfare with the goal of
destroying Hamas.
"We will see things in the coming battle that we should have
seen before, but did not. We will see the activation of large numbers of forces
at the same time – at least four divisions [each with several thousands of
soldiers] – and a massive evacuation of the Gazan populace. We did see a large
evacuation before, but it was not complete. There will then be a full siege on
the areas in which Hamas remains, with no civilians there – and this will lead
to its surrender."