Not Good: Turkey Closing in on Syria

by Nitzan Kedar, journalist and author, translated by Hillel Fendel.

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria means that Syria no longer exists as the country we once knew – and that we have yet to see who will be our new neighbor to the northeast. If we worried that it would be the Islamist terrorists known as the "rebels," it now appears that our old adversary from Turkey – President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (pronounced Erdwan) – will be in charge. This is not especially cheerful news.

Erdogan's relations with Israel have known chiefly downs as far as Israel is concerned. We know that he has long conspired to revive and expand the Ottoman Turkish Empire (which fell apart over a century ago), and Syria now seems to have fallen into his hands like ripe fruit. If he succeeds in forming a Sunni axis together with Qatar, following his successes in taking advantage of current Russian and Israeli weaknesses in light of their respective wars, and of Iran's loss of regional influence, this is liable to mark the beginning of "Turkish Syria."

Erdogan hold another card as well, namely, support from the "rebels," led by the new Syrian leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, he will apparently grant Erdogan the rights to build Turkish military bases in Syria and to redraw the maritime borders between Syria and Turkey.

The Turkish president's plan is to take over oil-rich northeastern Syria, while declaring war on the Kurds, his nemesis who currently control the region. What is stopping him is only the fear that the United States will intervene in favor of the Kurds. It's true that President-elect Trump, in his previous term, essentially abandoned the Kurds, and has even said that "the United States has nothing to look for in Syria." However, this is not the approach of the Pentagon, and some Republican senators have already said that they are working with Trump to change his mind. The situation remains murky, but Erdogan is planning to do all he can to ensure maximum Turkish presence in Syria.

Turkish foreign-affairs expert Dr. Chai Eitan Cohen Yanarocak says that even back in 2011, after the civil war broke out in Syria, "Erdogan took a hostile approach to Assad… The Turks view Syria as historically Sunni, not Alawi, and saw the Arab Spring as a type of opportunity to return the crown to its former glory. And if the Turks can't return to Syria themselves, they'll settle for having Turkish loyalists in power there. They also wanted to throw the Iranians out of Turkey's back door – and now they see their chance to do all this."

"The Turks say to themselves," Yanarocak continues, "'If we invested so much here, including lives of our soldiers, the time has now come to reap the profits.' So they will deepen their hold in Syria via a host of projects in construction and infrastructures such as building airports, radar installations, highways, new military bases, electricity, and searching for oil and gas. These are all a way of telling the Syrians, 'we're here to stay.'"

Asked whether Erdogan is seeking to replace Russia, which was heavily involved in Syria in recent years, Yanarocak responded: "The situation with Russia is still unclear. A significant portion of the Russian forces have left Syria, but they still remain strong in two regions. No one knows now what will be with the army bases there. Clearly the Russians will try to banish the Turks, but the latter are very anxious to replace the Russians and will do all they can for that purpose."

Erdogan also would love to abolish the Kurdish autonomy in Syria, although, as stated the Americans represent a threat to these plans. Asked about Foreign Minister Gideon Saar's recent declaration that Israel will support the Kurds, Yanarocak said that such statements "cause great harm to the State of Israel, because they increase Turkish hostility towards us. In my opinion, because the Kurds have no access to the sea and because they are absolutely dependent upon Turkey and the rebels' new regime, they will not be able to supply us, Israel, with any advantage."

Yanarocak is not optimistic about the American role in the future Syria: "Without the Turks, the U.S. will have no word with the new Syria. We know Trump as a businessman, and he will want to maximize American interests in the region. I don't think he cares that much about the Kurdish nation. A few years ago, when the Turks demanded that the U.S. withdraw from the area, Trump did so. The Americans folded and the Turks entered. Afterwards, when the Pentagon exerted pressure, Trump stopped the Turks. Perhaps now, however, Trump will view the situation differently, because so many things have changed there."

"In short," Yanarocak concluded, "there is no doubt that the relations between Israel and Turkey will be even more tense than they are now."

From Interrogation to Target

by Haggai Huberman , journalist and author, translated by Hillel Fendel.

The latest annual Shabak report reveals new anti-terrorist and anti-espionage methods and impressive successes.

The Shabak (Israel's General Security Service, also known as Shin Bet, corresponding to the American FBI) released its annual summary report this past week, entitled, "The Shabak in a Multi-Front War." It contains some interesting facts and insights regarding the war in Gaza, the anti-terrorism war in Judea and Samaria, the Arabs of Israel, and increased Iranian attempts to recruit spies in Israel.

The most significant change in 2024 was the fact that most intelligence from Gaza is now gathered physically from within Gaza. Under the current war conditions, Shabak agents entered the area, together with IDF forces, in order to recruit and activate agents "on the spot." This is the first time since the Disengagement withdrawal, nearly 20 years ago, that this is happening – and not at all by coincidence. The withdrawal engineered by then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, a Yom Kippur war hero, was the beginning of the process that ended on Simchat Torah of 2023 with the unforeseen slaughter of 1,200 Israelis and the kidnapping of 250 more. This occurred at least partly because barely any valuable intelligence information was obtainable from Gaza for nearly two decades.

This is of course further proof that no technological means, no matter how up-to-date, can ever replace the "personal contact" between the Shin Bet and its agents – spies – on the ground. Signals intelligence (SIGINT) cannot exclusively take the place of human intelligence (HUMINT), and the Shabak learned, and implemented, this over the past year.

In 2024, the joint Shabak-IDF activity resulted in over 1,350 arrestees, including some 40 senior operatives and commanders, 165 close associates of senior officials, 45 involved in the Oct. 7 slaughter, and 100 who apparently have information regarding the hostages.

Saving Lives in Real Time

The main question facing the Shabak over the years was how to make the best, and fastest, use of the information garnered during interrogations. For it is clear that much of the intelligence gathered in this way has no value at all if not utilized as quickly as possible. For this purpose, a new unit was established in the Shin Bet entitled "From Interrogation to Target," which, as its name implies, aims to formulate targets as immediately as possible. The current report reveals that during the war, hundreds of targets in Gaza have been attacked whose information came directly from Shabak investigations. As a result, over 30 (!) top Hamas terrorists in Gaza have been liquidated, as well as hundreds of others on slightly lower levels.

In addition, the investigations led to life-saving information that was passed on to IDF forces on the ground, including warnings about booby-trapped houses, and more.

Not only that, seven hostages were freed by Israeli forces in three different operations, planned and led by the Shabak. Valuable information was also obtained that led to the finding of nine bodies of hostages that were rescued from Gaza and brought to burial in Israel.

Another mission that the Shabak took on was to "pay back" those who took part in the Simchat Torah slaughter. A special command office was set up for this purpose, and succeeded in killing dozens of those known as Nukhba terrorists.

As far as Lebanon and the northern front is concerned, the Shabak significantly stepped up its work there this past year, especially in light of increased Hamas activity in Lebanon. The Shabak increased its intelligence gathering and thwarting of terrorist actions in the Land of the Cedars.

Yesha: Over 1,000 Attacks Thwarted

The report features some amazing stats related to the Yesha (Judea and Samaria) front, where the Shabak thwarted 1,040 significant attacks this year. These included 689 attempted shootings, 326 bomb attacks, 13 stabbings, 9 attempted car-rammings, two suicide attacks, and even an attempted kidnapping. Dozens of special IDF-Shabak operations were carried out in Yesha, including 13 airstrikes.

* Let the reader imagine that these numbers did not measure "thwarted attacks," but rather attacks that were actually carried out. The State of Israel would have been in a very different place during this past year-plus of war…

And what about the Israeli-Arabs? We tend to think that they have sat quietly during this past year, but this is true only for the general populace, which did not riot as it did throughout Israel during the "Guardians of the Wall." But in terms of individuals, some 20 Israeli-Arab terrorist gangs were uncovered as they planned attacks against their fellow citizens, including five rings that planned car-bombs and other bombings. Again, it is not hard to guess the catastrophic effects if five car-bombs had exploded in Israel during the course of the war.

During the course of 2024, some 80 cases involving Israeli-Arabs were investigated, including 26 in which the suspects swore allegiance to or planned to carry out terrorist activity inspired by global jihad and the Islamic State (ISIS) within Israel.

Administrative Detention for Arms Dealing

This year also saw, for the first time, administrative detention for arms dealers, as part of the war against criminal activity that spills over into terrorist activity.

The Shabak report reveals much about Iran's increased attempts – and successes – to recruit spies within Israel. During the course of 2024, 13 grave espionage cases involving Israelis working on behalf of Iran were uncovered. No fewer than 37 Israelis were investigated, and 27 have been charged with very serious crimes with possible life imprisonment sentences. These represent an approximate 400% rise over the year 2023. The discovery of these spy rings, or individuals, led to the thwarting of attacks of terrorism, espionage, and even assassination.

It is estimated that dozens of Israelis were in touch with Iranian intelligence agents during these past 15 months of war, and that hundreds of others were contacted by them. The publication of these stories has led to increased public awareness of the seriousness of the Iranian intentions, and therefore the nipping in the bud of other potential Iranian spies among Israelis.

The Irresponsible, Miraculous Maccabean Revolt – Then and Now

by Haggai Huberman , journalist and author, translated by Hillel Fendel.

Judah Maccabee's war against the Syrian Greeks was not logical or realistic, and basically had no chance of succeeding. But then came the miracles… Things didn't work then by logic – and the same is true today.

If someone in the year 167 BEC had made a cold calculation of the balance of power between the Hasmonean rebels and the Greek kingdom in the Holy Land, he would not have recommended that the Jews start a war against the latter. In fact, there was truly no realistic chance for them to win. They started off with only 3,000 soldiers (or possibly 6,000, according to Maccabees II), while the Greeks had anywhere between 20,000 and 100,000 troops. Things did not look rosy for the good guys.

Even worse was the quality of the respective forces. The Seleucids were well-trained, well-organized, and well-armed, and could boast of infantry, heavy and light cavalry, elephant units, and catapult units for hurling large rocks. In contrast, Judah Maccabee's small army used primitive farming tools and home-made weapons. What chance did he have?

And yet, the Jews won, after a very long war. They utilized a unique combination of Judah's battle tactics: guerilla warfare integrated with unpredictable miracles. The first Chanukah miracle was not the famous "flask of oil" incident, but rather a seemingly "natural" battle development. It happened during the fourth of the eight battles between the Hasmoneans and the Greeks, which took place in Beit Tzur, south of today's Gush Etzion bloc. [One of the modern Jewish communities there is known as Carmei Tzur, in commemoration of the town.] Practically in mid-battle, Greek commander Lysias suddenly left for home to try to inherit the apparently-deceased Antiochus – and Judah rushed in with his forces to fill the void. Announcing, "The Temple Mount is in our hands!" a bunch of centuries before anyone ever dreamt of Al-Aqsa, they purified the Holy Temple, found a lone flask of ritually pure oil, and lit the Menorah for eight days until additional pure oil could be produced.

The fifth battle also took place in Gush Etzion, one of whose communities is named Elazar – after the brother of Judah Maccabee who was killed at this time while bravely stabbing a Seleucid elephant from beneath.

After this defeat, another Chanukah miracle took place. Lysias had retaken Jerusalem, and was about to pursue Judah's army to the north. However, he received word of a rebellion in the eastern part of the kingdom, and again he abruptly and surprisingly left the scene, though not before offering Judah a ceasefire of sorts. Judah the Maccabee utilized the situation for good advantage, and retook the entire area of Judea. This did not mean the onset of a Jewish State, however, as Judah was killed in the next battle: the Battle of Elasa, not far from today's Beit El.

For the next seven years, the Jewish forces were led by Mattathias' youngest son (Judah's youngest brother) Yonatan. He spent this time building up a larger and better-trained army, and in the year 152, he and his forces again liberated Jerusalem and purified the Temple. This time, the Jewish autonomy and Temple dedication lasted for over 200 years, until the Romans sacked the Holy City in 68-70. Yonatan also achieved the nullification of the anti-religious decrees.

Paradoxically, then, it was precisely the Greek decrees aimed at separating the Jews from their Judaism that caused them to rebel and ultimately oust the Greeks and their culture from the Holy Land.  

Miracles are of course not a good work plan. But it's also true that Ben-Gurion - who declared the founding of the State of Israel in 1948 even though it was militarily expected not to last more than a week - famously said: "In Israel, whoever doesn't believe in miracles is not a realist."

We can also now give new meaning to the words of our prayers, "He Who wrought miracles to our forefathers in those days – at this time" - for in our times, too, we are living through a period of an ongoing miracle. It will take years before we truly comprehend what an amazing Heavenly miracle these entire last few months have been, and internalize that nothing that happened here could have been forecast by any realistic observer.

Could anyone have believed on Simchat Torah of 15 months ago, with thousands of Hamas terrorists overrunning our southern border, capturing communities and kibbutzim, slaughtering over 1,200 Jews – that a year later, Hamas leader Sinwar would be turned to dust, most of the Gaza Strip would be turned into piles of ruins, and .Iran would abruptly lose much of its military power in the Middle East and would be closer than ever to economic collapse? Could it have been foreseen that within this time period, Hizbullah would lose not only most of its military strength, but also its legendary leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli attack? Would anyone have believed that a long strip of villages in southern Lebanon would be razed and Hizbullah would be pushed back from the Israeli border? How about that Assad would be in exile in Russia, Syria would be left without an army, and the highest peak of Mt. Hermon, as well as other parts of Syria, would be under Israeli control without even a battle?

Yes, miracles cannot be the main feature of a national battle strategy. And even for a miracle to take place, we must work hard – or at least, fight hard. Without the initiatives that the IDF took, to what would the miracles have adhered or applied? On the other hand, no matter how much we do, without Heavenly providence, our success, especially in these wars, is very far from guaranteed. Both of these have always been true, throughout our history, and including of course that of the State of Israel.

Very soon, we all pray and hope, we will merit to experience possibly the happiest miracle of all: The safe return of dozens of Israeli captives to their families and country, Amen. 

The 76-Year-War

by Yossi Achimeir, journalist and former politician, translated by Hillel Fendel.

The trauma of Oct. 7^th is not over, the war continues – and Israel lives on.

It's now been nearly 15 months that Israel has been living in the shadow of the trauma of Oct. 7^th. The horrendous calamity that fell with a frightful thud that morning of Simchat Torah has swollen into a multi-front war, unprecedented since our War of Independence. The matches lit on the Gaza envelope have set raging fires in the northern border and Judea and Samaria as well, ignited by the pyromaniacs sitting in Tehran.

The flames, of course, have not yet gone out. Even though two of our greatest enemies – Hamas in the south and Hizbullah in the north - have been soundly defeated, the Ayatollahs in Iran have not given up their dream to destroy the Jewish State, and are actively employing their third proxy - the Houthis in Yemen – to this end.

Just like the Yom Kippur War 51 years ago, the current war also took Israel by surprise – and both were grave blunders that endangered our very existence. Both of them might have been avoided were it not for complacency on our side.

But our national will was strong. Though we abruptly found ourselves nearly overwhelmed both times, the IDF was able not only to recover, but also to repel the enemies, strike them cripplingly in their own territories, and thwart their plans. However, both times we paid a very steep price in the blood of our soldiers and citizens.

The main difference between the two is that the Yom Kippur War lasted three weeks, while the current war has not yet reached its absolute conclusion. Most Israelis continue to live the good life, while its best sons, in the standing army and in the reserves, continue to meet the challenges both north and south, far from their families and jobs. The Israel Air Force has successfully sent its long arms thousands of kilometers away, both to Iran and to Yemen – and with all this, the work is far from completed.

We sometimes believe that we will finally be able to breathe easily as soon as we totally obliterate Iran's nuclear and other military capabilities. Is this true?

Though we are the only country in the world under constant threat from all directions, Israel has a strong military capacity that seems to reveal itself most impressively when we are under attack – and often, after terrible internal fiascos that seem to have invited the enemy upon us. In the current case, the enemy appears to have identified the weaknesses eating away at us from within, issues that bring us too close for comfort to civil war. And yet, over the past year, we were able to climb up from the depths of defeat almost to the pinnacle of victory and national pride. The Middle East geopolitical map has been turned upside down, with the long-time attackers and war-mongerers having brought upon themselves death, destruction and suffering that will require many years of recovery.

But really this war is simply the last in a chain of hostilities that have been forced upon Israel throughout its 76 years. Basically, it's been one long, 76-year war. It would be a mistake to think that Oct. 7^th is behind us, and that we have well learned the lessons it presented us. Just consider last week's terrorist murder of Holocaust survivor Ludmila Lipovsky, 83 years old, on Holocaust Martyrs St. in Herzliya. That was her own private Oct. 7^th – parallel to the national Oct. 7^th that cruelly snuffed out the lives of 1200 Israelis in their homes and at an outdoors festival.

We must internalize that the extremist Muslims' uncontrolled hatred for us, wherever they are, is far from extinguished. They will continue to seek to murder and maim us – Israelis and other Jews alike. Even when our security forces manage, without fanfare or recognition, to thwart hundreds of attacks a year, there could still be one lone attack that could pass under the radar and bring death and tragedy upon us. We are at perpetual war with fanatic, implacable enemies who, as it looks now, will never accept our existence.

Dangers also face us from the "quiet" Jordanian border. The Hashemite Kingdom, with which we have a peace agreement, is facing the threat of destabilization by Iranian elements. We also have a treaty with Egypt, which for some reason has begun arming itself to the teeth. And even in crumbling Syria, the dreaded Assad regime is in the process of being replaced by an unknown quantity – i.e., not only the rebels, but partially also Erdogan's threatening Turkish forces.

What we can do is the following: We must not ever give our enemies reason to believe that we are crumbling from within, busy with our own disputes and arguments while ignoring the threats from without. And 15 months after Oct. 7^th, the IDF needs a new leadership, ready to spring like a lion, aware and ready for all scenarios

I read recently of a small, little-known country named the Kingdom of Bhutan. It is barely 1.5 times the size of Israel, with less than 1/12 of our population. Despite its precarious location between superpowers China in the north and India in the south, this "Land of Happiness," as it is known, manages to live in peace and serenity, away from major headlines. Israel is far from being Bhutan or Switzerland, but it is still the "Jewish Kingdom of Happiness" – even if in the coming years we will continue having to live on our sword.