[Based on articles that originally appeared in Hebrew in Israel HaYom and Yeshemda, and translated by Hillel Fendel
Two major bombshells have hit the Israeli electoral arena over the last two weeks. Frankly, despite all the ink being spilled nationwide on analysis, no one really knows what to make of them. The nationalist-religious camp has been particularly taken by surprise.
First was the abrupt announcement of new national elections. A sample of the drama felt across the nation occurred in the middle of a special gathering of the Knesset's Land of Israel lobby dedicated to the Jewish Community of Hevron. All of a sudden, a hush came over the room – for everyone's cell phone had just received the same, unexpected message: The coalition heads had decided to dissolve the Knesset and hold new elections.
The surprise was not the very fact of the new elections, for everyone knew that what had become a narrow 61-MK government coalition had barely been hobbling along. But no one expected it to happen quite so quickly and suddenly. Everyone in the room – Knesset Members, reporters, and other conference participants – were equally taken by surprise.
The second bombshell came at a press conference held by Jewish Home party leader Naftali Bennett and his loyal #2, Ayelet Shaked, on Saturday night. The two government ministers announced their departure from the religious-Zionist party they had basically taken over some five years ago. They will instead form a new political entity, tentatively called the New Right Party.
This leaves the Jewish Home party, including its junior partner, the National Union headed by Uri Ariel, in a form of disarray. Much remains unknown: whether the two parties will remain together, who will head each of its factions, and how many votes Bennett-Shaked will attract from the religious-Zionist base and the Likud, respectively.
In actuality, among the names floated as a possible Jewish Home leader to succeed Bennett is our very own Yaakov Ketzaleh Katz. Head of the National Union party during the 18th Knesset (2009-2013), he has been approached by leading public figures to consider taking the helm again. Ketzaleh has not responded regarding his possible return to politics.
"We have to hope that the new Bennett-Shaked party will pass the minimum vote threshold," Ketzaleh says, "and we should convince long-time Likud voters to switch their support to them. But more to the point, this is a great opportunity for the Jewish Home to broaden its party base and bring in other religious-Zionist factions under our large umbrella." This, in fact, was the admittedly difficult objective that Ketzaleh worked hard to accomplish during his watch as National Union leader.
Some believe that Bennett and Shaked’s new non-sectorial party may actually increase the nationalist camp, convincing many young voters who had previously debated between Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid and the Jewish Home, and ultimately chose not to vote for a sectorial religious party.
Polls taken before the Bennett-Shaked split-off indicated a clear victory for Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and the Likud. Even if this trend continues, no one can yet know the configuration of the next Knesset or coalition. For the parties to the right of the Likud, the goal is to garner enough Knesset mandates for Netanyahu to have to take them seriously and grant them a substantial say in the next government.
The dissolution of the 20th Knesset has broad ramifications. It was basically a nationalist-leaning legislature, with 67 right-wing party members. The government, too, was considered one of the most nationalist that Israel has known. Many laws were passed that were pleasing to the nationalist heart, and the atmosphere in various government ministries took a rightward shift.
An article by the Yesha Council of Jewish Communities in Judea and Samaria, for instance, which had its share of struggles with the outgoing government, summed up by saying that the above developments "alone justified the existence of the 20th Knesset. The prevailing sense until the current government was that the day will come when the State of Israel will end the Jewish presence in Judea, Samaria and the Jordan Valley and cede the area to a Palestinian entity. This meant that there was no need to seek to advance these areas and improve the day-to-day quality of life of their hundreds of thousands of residents. The change that we have seen has been very welcome."
Evidence of the good work accomplished by the outgoing Knesset was the parting speech of extreme left-wing Meretz Chairperson MK Tamar Zandberg. "This was the worst Knesset in Israeli history," she said, "one that represented the most moonstruck and marginal right-wingers."
The Yesha Council continued: "Over the past few years, we aided the various government ministries, together with the respective ministers, in developing Judea, Samaria and the Jordan Valley. Together we designed master plans for various important infrastructures such as transportation, gas, water, electricity, environment, and more. We are thus supplying antidotes to the widespread abandonment of these areas for the past 50 years. This is a process that we cannot allow to be stopped."
Nationalist bodies were disappointed that the Netanyahu government did not take advantage of the short time between the elections announcement and the actual dissolution of the Knesset to pass critical legislation. Specifically, the Yesha Council had hoped that Israeli sovereignty would be declared in Judea and Samaria, and that Jewish homes built in good faith and with government support on contested lands would be declared free of the destruction threat hanging over their heads.
"As we stand before new elections," the Yesha Council stated, "we call for quick work on the national diplomatic front, because we cannot know what the future holds in store. We hope that the next Knesset, like the outgoing one, will be comprised of large nationalist factions that will support the Jewish settlement enterprise. We dare not rest on our laurels; the residents of Yesha and the Jordan Valley must vote for those who will advance our interested and work to pass the required legislation in the next Knesset. This can happen if we have a strong right-wing coalition.
Without relating to the Bennett-Shaen split-off, the Yesha Council hints that Netanyahu and the Likud cannot be counted on: "In another 100 days, just before the upcoming Pesach holiday, let us all go and vote for those who can strengthen the Jewish presence in Yesha and the Jordan Valley and who will march us forward - all the way to sovereignty."