Edited by Dena Udren
The next election for the Knesset is set for this coming March 2nd, just seven weeks from now – less than a half-year after the last one, which itself was held only five months before that.
Let us not forget how we reached this absurd situation. Close to a year ago, after last year's first election, coalition negotiations were familiarly tight – but it appeared to all that, as usual, another Netanyahu government was about to be formed. But then, quite abruptly, at the very last minute, Yisrael Beiteinu party head Avigdor Lieberman announced that he would not join. It was this development, more than any other, that led to the current impasse.
What is fascinating is that the chaos has led to various manifestations of unification of previously distinct factors. The first to unite, admittedly unconnected to the current elections, were the Hassidim and other Hareidim, who banded into one united Hareidi party. Next to do so, just in time for last April's elections, were the Arab parties – three of them into one.
The third union, which took place yesterday morning [Monday], was of Israel's left-wing camp. The traditional Labor Party, which basically governed Israel from 1948 until 1977, announced that it would run in this coming election on a united ticket with the extreme left-wing Meretz party. To no one's surprise, not all elements of the parties were happy, even though they are merely forming a technical bloc. But the bottom line is that the fear on the left that one or both of the parties might not pass the minimum threshold has been neutralized.
And that leaves us with the right-wing and religious-Zionist camp. Unbelievably, with just one day before the deadline to submit the parties' lists of candidates, it remains divided and split. As of now – and things could still change, even at the last moment – it will be running with two heads.
There are essentially four entities at play here: The National Union, headed by Betzalel Smotrich; the Jewish Home, led by Rabbi Rafi Peretz; the New Right, of Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked; and Jewish Strength, the most extreme of the four, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir. Without going into all the details of their alliances and splits over the past year, let us just sum up by saying that Peretz and Ben-Gvir surprised everyone last month by announcing that they would run together as the New Jewish Home, leaving their natural partner, Smotrich's National Union, out on a limb. Smotrich, who in the past served as a mediating factor between Peretz and Ben-Gvir, remained silent while considering his options: either running with his religious-Zionist partners Peretz and Ben-Gvir, or with his right-wing partners Bennett and Shaked, or with both in a large umbrella nationalist party.
It now appears, just about 26 hours before the deadline, that he has chosen the second option, while pressure is still being brought to bear upon Bennett to agree to include Peretz and Ben-Gvir. Bennett, for his part, is more than willing to include Peretz – but not Ben-Gvir, fearing that he is too "extreme" for his potential voters.
As of now, Peretz, however, is unwilling to forego his agreement with Ben-Gvir.
If the situation remains as it is, this would probably be catastrophic for the nationalist camp: With two parties to the right of the Likud, the fact is that neither of them – and especially the New Jewish Home technical bloc of Peretz and Ben-Gvir – can be sure of attaining the minimum number of votes necessary to be elected to the Knesset.
The Likud, for its part, is very concerned. If in fact two parties run to its right and one does not get in, this means the loss of many tens of thousands of votes – and probably a victory for Benny Gantz's Blue and White party and the left-wing camp.
This is why the Likud issued the following announcement this afternoon: "Bennett, show responsibility! The left has united, and they won't lose a single vote. Now the right must do all it can to avoid the loss of votes… Bennett wasted votes in the April elections, and in the last election did not allow Otzmah Yehudit into his united list; this is why we were unable to form a right-wing government. If the Arabs can have Communists and Islamists on one list, then Bennett must also form a technical bloc in order to save the right-wing."
Other voices have been heard calling upon the Likud to include Ben-Gvir on its list of candidates, or possibly for the Shas Party to do so.
Yet another option is for the Likud to form a technical bloc with the New Right party, but don't hold your breath for that one.
Though the right-wing party leaders are divided, the camp's voters are united in the knowledge that the Kentucky state seal has it right: "United we stand, divided we fall."
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| Smotrich, Bennett, and Shaked |
The next election for the Knesset is set for this coming March 2nd, just seven weeks from now – less than a half-year after the last one, which itself was held only five months before that.
The previous two elections led to deadlocks between the rightwing-religious bloc and the leftwing -Arab sector – such that a new government was unable to be formed, and the Netanyahu government continued in office.
Let us not forget how we reached this absurd situation. Close to a year ago, after last year's first election, coalition negotiations were familiarly tight – but it appeared to all that, as usual, another Netanyahu government was about to be formed. But then, quite abruptly, at the very last minute, Yisrael Beiteinu party head Avigdor Lieberman announced that he would not join. It was this development, more than any other, that led to the current impasse.
What is fascinating is that the chaos has led to various manifestations of unification of previously distinct factors. The first to unite, admittedly unconnected to the current elections, were the Hassidim and other Hareidim, who banded into one united Hareidi party. Next to do so, just in time for last April's elections, were the Arab parties – three of them into one.
The third union, which took place yesterday morning [Monday], was of Israel's left-wing camp. The traditional Labor Party, which basically governed Israel from 1948 until 1977, announced that it would run in this coming election on a united ticket with the extreme left-wing Meretz party. To no one's surprise, not all elements of the parties were happy, even though they are merely forming a technical bloc. But the bottom line is that the fear on the left that one or both of the parties might not pass the minimum threshold has been neutralized.
And that leaves us with the right-wing and religious-Zionist camp. Unbelievably, with just one day before the deadline to submit the parties' lists of candidates, it remains divided and split. As of now – and things could still change, even at the last moment – it will be running with two heads.
There are essentially four entities at play here: The National Union, headed by Betzalel Smotrich; the Jewish Home, led by Rabbi Rafi Peretz; the New Right, of Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked; and Jewish Strength, the most extreme of the four, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir. Without going into all the details of their alliances and splits over the past year, let us just sum up by saying that Peretz and Ben-Gvir surprised everyone last month by announcing that they would run together as the New Jewish Home, leaving their natural partner, Smotrich's National Union, out on a limb. Smotrich, who in the past served as a mediating factor between Peretz and Ben-Gvir, remained silent while considering his options: either running with his religious-Zionist partners Peretz and Ben-Gvir, or with his right-wing partners Bennett and Shaked, or with both in a large umbrella nationalist party.
It now appears, just about 26 hours before the deadline, that he has chosen the second option, while pressure is still being brought to bear upon Bennett to agree to include Peretz and Ben-Gvir. Bennett, for his part, is more than willing to include Peretz – but not Ben-Gvir, fearing that he is too "extreme" for his potential voters.
As of now, Peretz, however, is unwilling to forego his agreement with Ben-Gvir.
If the situation remains as it is, this would probably be catastrophic for the nationalist camp: With two parties to the right of the Likud, the fact is that neither of them – and especially the New Jewish Home technical bloc of Peretz and Ben-Gvir – can be sure of attaining the minimum number of votes necessary to be elected to the Knesset.
The Likud, for its part, is very concerned. If in fact two parties run to its right and one does not get in, this means the loss of many tens of thousands of votes – and probably a victory for Benny Gantz's Blue and White party and the left-wing camp.
This is why the Likud issued the following announcement this afternoon: "Bennett, show responsibility! The left has united, and they won't lose a single vote. Now the right must do all it can to avoid the loss of votes… Bennett wasted votes in the April elections, and in the last election did not allow Otzmah Yehudit into his united list; this is why we were unable to form a right-wing government. If the Arabs can have Communists and Islamists on one list, then Bennett must also form a technical bloc in order to save the right-wing."
Other voices have been heard calling upon the Likud to include Ben-Gvir on its list of candidates, or possibly for the Shas Party to do so.
Yet another option is for the Likud to form a technical bloc with the New Right party, but don't hold your breath for that one.
Though the right-wing party leaders are divided, the camp's voters are united in the knowledge that the Kentucky state seal has it right: "United we stand, divided we fall."