Postponing the declaration of sovereignty over Judea and Samaria until after the elections, as Binyamin Netanyahu now says he plans to do – under "American pressure," of course – is liable to prove itself a very grave error. It not only puts the brakes on the historic process of national rule over the entire Land of Israel, but also stops the momentum that could have led to victory in the coming elections for Netanyahu and the nationalist bloc.
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| Trump, Netanyahu [credit: Reuters] |
It's nearly two weeks after the presentation of the Deal of the Century – the Trump Plan for peace in the Middle East – and the exhilaration we felt has been replaced by great disappointment and letdown. Our hopes were lifted to the skies with the promise of sovereignty over Judea and Samaria – and now we're hearing from Prime Minister Netanyahu, and from top American officials, that it won't happen before the coming elections on March 2nd.
Just a short time after the friendly Trump Administration had us believe that there was a green light for immediate annexation, suddenly it slams on the brakes. First it was Jared Kushner who seemed to be stopping us, with David Friedman siding for annexation – and then it was Friedman himself who came out with a warning that a unilateral Israeli annexation of the area now would "endanger the plan and American recognition."
No one truly believes that Friedman changed his mind so fast. Was it Kushner's hand? Did Trump himself turn off the green light, under some sort of pressure? Or did he truly change his mind? Or - could it be that we were somehow misled from the beginning, and that Trump never meant for us to annex Judea and Samaria at this time?
Besheva Editor Emanuel Shilo asks another important question: What is Netanyahu's true position on the question of sovereignty? Is it truly important to him to guarantee the future of the Yesha settlement enterprise? Or is he more than willing to suffice with the diplomatic achievement in having being partner to the presentation of the plan – which of course granted a strong spark of momentum to the Likud's election campaign?
Shilo notes the obvious: Netanyahu never really showed great interest in sovereignty until recently, and has even prevented attempts to annex Yesha in the past. It was only recently, before the last election, that he began talking about annexing the Jordan Valley. At present, his declared position is one of support for sovereignty over all Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria – but his talk of postponing it until after the elections creates the feeling that perhaps it is all just one big spin.
If he truly wants sovereignty, Netanyahu knows how to work with the Trump Administration and obtain its consent for the move. He could simply say, "Delaying annexation will greatly disappoint and disillusion my hard-core of support, and if they stay at home and don't vote, Benny Ganz will be the Prime Minister." With Trump himself facing a tough election campaign in the coming months, Netanyahu also knows how to activate Trump's pro-Israel supporters in the Republican Party to exert their own pressure upon him.
Netanyahu recently told a gathering of supporters that if they truly want sovereignty, they should vote for him – "for if Blue-and-White wins, it will not implement annexation". With this, however, Netanyahu leaves himself wide open: Why not simply carry out the annexation right now, thus obviating the fear of what Blue-and-White would or would not do? The obvious answer to this question seems to be that Netanyahu has chosen to work towards his re-election even at the possible expense of Judea and Samaria.
For Netanyahu to accept the American "hey, slow down!" without protest is greatly disappointing on two levels. Firstly, it could truly lead to the loss of what seems to be a once-in-a-lifetime historic opportunity for the future of the nearly half-million Jews in Yesha. Secondly, more immediately, if nationalist voters stay home on Election Day, this could hand the election on a silver platter to Benny Ganz, Blue-and-White, and the Meretz-Labor alliance.
What would happen if Blue-and-White wins, but is forced to form a unity government with the Likud? The answer is that annexation would be far from guaranteed. A unity government generally means that both sides compromise on some of their most important positions, and sovereignty would probably be the first to evaporate from the Likud side.
"Netanyahu is well-known for hesitating when drastic moves are called for," Shilo writes. "It is this caution that is one of the secrets of his longevity in office – but it is also the source of his weakness. When it comes time for dramatic decisions, he prefers to sit on the fence – and only heavy pressure, such as that being exerted by Yesha Council leaders, can lead him to realize that he has no choice but to take action."