Why Arab Countries Are Reluctant About a PA State

By Yoram Ettinger, originally published in myesha.org.il, translated by Hillel Fendel

Yoram Ettinger

While Western policy focuses on how a Palestinian state would function in the future, Arab countries grant critical importance to how the Palestinians have functioned in the past, as a sign of how they would operate in the future.

Concentrating on the future is subjective and a matter of conjecture, whereas past performance is objective and documented. Well-known psychologist Dr. Albert Ellis said it clearly: "The most effective forecast of the future is based on the behavior of the past." Western thinking gives great weight to Arab "talk" that embraces the Palestinians, but ignores past Arab actions that actually seek to keep the Palestinians at bay.


By paying attention only to what the Arabs say, the West believes that the Palestinian question is central on their agenda and that the establishment of a Palestinian state will solve the Israeli-Arab conflict. This approach appears to ignore 14 centuries of Middle Eastern history, which features violence, back-stabbings, intolerance, and lack of democracy, and has yet to have experienced even inter-Arab peaceful coexistence.

It is typical of Western thinking to prefer optimistic, rosy prognoses over frustrating documented past experience, including that of the Palestinians. What we have experienced indicates a reasonable chance that a Palestinian state would not only not be a calming factor, but would lead to the downfall of the Hashemite Kingdom in Jordan, followed by a lethal chain reaction in the Arabian peninsula and in every pro-U.S. Arab nation. It would also give a strong backwind to the Islamic Brotherhood (the largest Muslim terrorist org in the world), the Ayatollahs, ISIS, Erdogan, China, and Russia.

This mistaken Western thinking has already led to the defining of the Arab tsunami that began in 2010 as an "Arab Spring." It also led to the sacrifice of the Shah's Iran on the altar of the longing for simple and quick solutions, bringing to power none other than the "freedom-loving" Ayatollah Khomeini. Ignoring the past also led the West to overlook the dangers of Saddam Hussein, up until the very day that he invaded Kuwait in 1990.

Here is a list, in brief, of past Palestinian behaviors that explain why Arab countries have strong reservations regarding Palestinian statehood:

* Cooperation with the Muslim Brotherhood ever since the Nazi period and again in the 1950's.

* Identification with the Iranian Ayatollahs, which seeks to topple the Saudi regime and all other pro-America Arab nations.

* Ever since the 70's, training of international terrorist organizations from around the world.

* The murder of the US Ambassador to Sudan and his deputy by Fatah and PLO-supported Black September terrorists (March 1973).

* The murder of 318 American and French soldiers in two car-bomb attacks by the Islamic Jihad with Palestinian support.

* The first intifada (1988-91) and the establishment of the Palestinian Authority (1993) led to the expulsion and flight of Christians from Ramallah and many other PA cities, rendering them a tiny minority in these areas.

* Subversive Palestinian terrorist activity in host countries such as Egypt (in the 50's), Syria (1966), Jordan (1968-70), Lebanon (1970-82), and especially Kuwait (1990).

* Extreme inculcation of murderous hatred against Israel following the Oslo Accords and other Israeli concessions.

* Deception by Arafat, Abbas, and others, who speak the language of peace but take actions of war and incitement.

Note that at the signing ceremony of the Israel-Jordan Peace Agreement in 1994, Jordanian military leaders told IDF officers, "The establishment of a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River will lead to the toppling of the Hashemite regime east of the Jordan."

It is clear, based on past experience, that a Palestinian state will introduce into the eastern Mediterranean Sea region civilian and military presence on the part of China, Russia, Turkey, Iran and North Korea.

Tigers don't change their stripes – but they do change their tactics, and so it is clear that the establishment of a Palestinian state does not bode well for pro-US entities in the area. It would be a good idea for policy makers in both Israel and the entire West to take Dr. Ellis' words to heart when considering their support for a Palestinian state, and to use the past to forecast the future.