The Deal of the Century:
Opportunities and (Increasingly High) Risks
[by Hillel Fendel, based on articles by myesha.org.il and Haggai Huberman]
Senior officials in the Trump Administration are pressuring Israel to agree that it will suffice with 30% of the area – no matter what the PA does.
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| PM Netanyahu and President Trump shaking hands (Credit: The White House) |
The Trump Administration's basic support for Israel is nothing to take for granted – but neither is it to be embraced without questions and doubts.
Israel has benefited greatly from the relocation of the American Embassy to Jerusalem and President Trump's recognition of the Golan Heights as Israeli. More recently, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared that Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria do not negate international law.
Then came the Deal of the Century. Many initially believed it to be the icing on the cake of warm American love and affection for Israel. However, when studied more carefully, it actually looks more like ice, not icing, on this warmth.
The Deal's major plus is that for the first time, the U.S. recognizes Israel's legal right to apply sovereignty over areas liberated during the Six Day War (53 years ago!) in Judea, Samaria and the Jordan Valley. But the other areas are liable to become a Palestinian state – an existential danger to Israel's existence!
The plan was festively inaugurated this past January, just a few weeks prior to Israel's last election campaign. The plan calls for Israeli sovereignty over some 30% of Judea and Samaria – meaning that it leaves for the Palestinian Authority the remaining 70%, on condition that it agrees to fulfill its side of the agreement. If it does, a demilitarized Arab Palestinian state is to be formed on this area, with a travel corridor across Israel from the Hebron area to Gaza. "Demilitarized" is a term that is easy to stipulate, but nearly impossible to enforce…
If, on the other hand, the PA refuses to come to terms with the Deal, it is possible that Israel would assume sovereignty over even more of its historic homeland in Judea and Samaria. However, it has now been learned that senior officials in the Trump Administration are pressuring Israel to agree that the 30% currently available for sovereignty will not be exceeded in the future. That is, Israel is being pressured to concede already now that the Arabs will, no matter what, control the lion's share of Judea and Samaria. This is totally unacceptable from Israel's standpoint, and has increased the scope and intensity of Israeli opposition to the plan.
In exchange for declaring sovereignty over the above 30%, Israel must agree to freeze all Jewish construction in the remainder of what is known as Area C – area that is currently under full Israeli control – for at least four years. No such freeze will apply to the Arab side.
Though all Israeli towns will be included in Israel's sovereign areas, 19 of them (not 15, as is commonly reported) will essentially become enclaves nearly surrounded by PA areas. The building freeze will apply to these towns, which will not be allowed to expand outward in any way.
The plan states that Israel may apply its sovereignty to the areas in question as early as a month from now, on July 1. The government is likely to approve the move, though the Cabinet ministers of the Blue and White party, who comprise nearly half of the unity government, will likely be granted the right to vote as they please.
Undoubtedly, the Deal is a first-ever opportunity to apply full Israeli law to parts of Judea, Samaria and the Jordan Valley. But it also sets the stage for tremendous risks for the future of the State of Israel. For one thing, it marks the first time Israel officially recognizes a Palestinian state, and even marks off a basic border between it and Israel. Even if the Arabs refuse to agree to recognize Israel, thereby voiding the agreement, the consent-in-principle by Israel and the U.S. will remain forever.
The Deal's attached map also shows that Highway 60 – the main north-south route connecting northern Shomron, Eli, Shilo, Ofrah, Beit El, Jerusalem and Gush Etzion – will be cut off for Jewish travel in several key locations. Not only will this make life nearly impossible for many tens of thousands of Jews, the Yesha Council evaluates that "this will bring about continued Palestinian take-over of lands and massive illegal Arab construction in Area C."
And that's not all. The deal calls for the transfer of Israeli territory for the benefit of the Arab state-to-be, including near Arad (Dead Sea), Um el-Fahm (Galilee Triangle), and Chalutza (south of Gaza).
In short, the adoption of this plan as it currently stands could be a catastrophe for Israel. Too many question marks remain that are liable to be resolved via Arab force in creating facts on the ground, to Israel's detriment.
Worst of all, the agreement itself states: "This vision creates a realistic solution for Two States… Every peace agreement must take into account the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinians for self-determination…"
The Yesha Council concludes: "The Government of Israel must act to reduce the risks of this Deal of the Century by
a) changing the proposed map,
b) ensuring absolute contiguous Israeli sovereignty between and among the Jewish communities,
c) voiding the clauses calling for future construction freezes, and
a) changing the proposed map,
b) ensuring absolute contiguous Israeli sovereignty between and among the Jewish communities,
c) voiding the clauses calling for future construction freezes, and
d) continuing to build in every Jewish community in Judea and Samaria. Israel must also declare that the plan will never include Israeli consent to a Palestinian state." - something which too many experts consider to be an existential danger to the State of Israel.