by Hillel Fendel, based on articles by Nitzan Kedar and Ze'ev Kam in B'sheva
The national elections for Knesset and (indirectly for) Prime Minister of Israel are only two weeks away – and we may actually assume with some basis that this one will be the last one for about four years. If this in fact happens, this would be quite an accomplishment, as the current campaign is the fourth in two years – practically unheard of in the history of Western democracies.
On what is based the assumption that this election might actually produce a stable government coalition? Well, there are two possibilities: Either Netanyahu's Likud, together with Smotrich's Religious-Zionism party, the hareidi parties, and Bennett's Yemina party, can form a narrow government of 61 MKs - or they cannot. If the former, the game is over and the anti-Bibi-ites will have lost again.
If the latter, however – or if Bennett makes a dramatic decision to desert Netanyahu – the leaders of the three medium-to-large parties – Naftali Bennett, Gideon Saar, and Yair Lapid – will certainly make sure to figure out among them how to form a government. This is likely to involve a rotation agreement for the position of Prime Minister, most likely between Bennett and Saar. None of the three, except possibly for Bennett, can afford to return to the voters a few months from now after not having done all they possibly could to ensure that a government without Netanyahu is established, even if they themselves do not head it.
The other players on the political field have also given signals that they will not facilitate a fifth election. Lapid has said that he would be willing to "compromise" in order not to drag the country to another election campaign, and Aryeh Deri of Shas has made similar comments.
But of course, we need not rush to eulogize Netanyahu. The master politician is a whiz at pulling out amazing tricks from his hat in the final days and hours of a political campaign, and it is very possible he can do it yet again. The poll findings change from day to day, and this election is sure to be a nail-biter until the end.
Lapid – not an attractive choice for Yemina voters, but somewhat acceptable for supporters of Saar's "New Hope" party – has become the target of the Likud campaign. This is largely because Netanyahu does not want to call attention to his main rivals, Bennett and Saar, and so is directing his blows in Lapid's direction. One could be forgiven for thinking that the Likud MKs have been instructed to turn every interviewer's question into an attack on Lapid. If asked about Corona, they will remind us that Lapid once said that Israel would not receive more than five vaccines. If asked about Iran, Lapid's name will somehow find its way into the Likud MK's response. Even if the Likud speaker just gets something in his eye, you can be sure he will tie it into Lapid.
And, by the way, this strategy seems to be working: Lapid has climbed in the polls, apparently at the expense of Saar. But still, Lapid appears to have no shot at becoming Prime Minister, because most of Saar's voters "lean" to the right (more mildly than Saar himself, who is defined as quite nationalist), and the same is true for Bennett's Yamina party, whose supporters are more strongly nationalistic and pro-Land of Israel than Saar's voters.
In short, with two weeks to go until the election, we can say with a fair degree of confidence that a stable government will arise – but no one can possibly know now what it will look like or who will head it.
Who is a Jew?
Let us not ignore another hot political issue of last week: the Supreme Court's decision to recognize Reform and Conservative conversions to Judaism (not for religious purposes, but for the sake of awarding financial benefits that the State grants Jewish immigrants).
Legislators from the hareidi parties expressed fury at the decision, blaming the entire judicial system – but refusing to look into the mirror and realize how their own inactivity contributed to the ruling.
The various Netanyahu governments of the past decade-plus were basically the Golden Age of the hareidi parties. They received almost everything they asked for, and they had a tremendous influence and impact upon the government and its activities. Despite this, they did practically nothing to push a Conversion Law that would anchor in law that only conversions carried out under the auspices, or with the approval, of Israel's Chief Rabbinate would be recognized in Israel.
To Netanyahu's credit, he tried to solve the problem by forming a committee headed by former Justice Minister Moshe Nissim (son of former Israeli Chief Sephardic Rabbi Yitzchak Nissim). The Prime Minister understood clearly that the Supreme Court's years of patience on this matter would eventually come to an end. The committee recommended the establishment of a Conversion Authority, to be headed by a Torah scholar, that would oversee five rabbinic conversion courts. It also specified that no private-court conversions would be recognized.
However, for reasons that cannot be explained here, the rabbinic and hareidi political establishment rejected this idea, showing no willingness to discuss it – and the result was the Supreme Court ruling granting the Reform and Conservative movements total authority to conduct conversions.
The hareidi politicians now say they will ensure that a law acceptable to them will be passed in the next Knesset. But they are hot off the waging of a very obstinate struggle against every single jot and tittle of Nissim's recommendations, much more strongly than the religious-Zionist establishment did – and this will not get them very far. To come out against the Supreme Court is very easy, especially during an election campaign – but it would be more effective if they would simply admit their mistakes that led to its latest ruling.
The lesson that must be learned by both of the above religious camps is this: No issue can be ignored, and Halakhically-acceptable compromises must always be sought. No basic demand of the Halakhah can be forfeited, but neither may every proposal be automatically rejected without checking carefully what the Halakhah demands.