by Assaf Mishnayot and Hillel Fendel
Following a week's worth of doubts, it now appears nearly absolutely, certainly, 100% sure – almost – that a new government will not be formed in the current Knesset. Instead, general elections will be held in late October or early November, after the High Holidays and Sukkot.
In Israeli politics, of course, the only real certainty is that we can never actually know what will happen. Despite continued rushed efforts to find 61 MKs who will agree to band together in a new coalition headed by either Binyamin Netanyahu and/or the leader of a different party in rotation, it now truly seems that no such combination will be found before Wednesday night, at which time the final vote will be held to dissolve the Knesset.
Likud MK Eli Cohen said it this morning (Tuesday): "The chances of forming an alternative government in this Knesset are nil, and in my opinion, we are headed for elections." Note the disclaimer: "in my opinion…"
The goal of the opposition – the nationalist parties thereof, that is – was/is to attract members from former Likudnik Gideon Saar's party, from Yemina, and/or from Benny Ganz's Blue-and-White party, in order to reach the coveted 61. The Likud (29 MKs), Religious Zionism (7), four breakaways from Yemina, Shas (9), and Agudat Yisrael (7) provide 56 MKs, and five more were/are needed.
Saar, however, slammed the door shut on any possibility of working with Netanyahu. He did the same when the Bennett-Abbas-Lapid government was formed just over a year ago. That is, in order to avoid new elections, he was willing to include an Arab party as a critical component of the government last year – but, for the same goal today, he is not willing to sit with Netanyahu. Go figure.
It was last Monday when Prime Minister Naftali Bennett surprised the country, including even many in his own party, by announcing that "all efforts to stabilize the coalition have been exhausted." As such, he and Alternate Prime Minister Lapid agreed to submit legislation to dissolve the current Knesset. If this in fact occurs, former TV personality Lapid is set to become Israel's next prime minister within days.
"It would be hard to describe the extent of the Knesset Members' shock when they heard this announcement," writes Assaf Mishnayot in Besheva. "Just a few hours before, Lapid was speaking about passing the 2023 budget as his most important goal… The opposition, too, did not see it coming. They had been arguing and talking about their own no-confidence motion that they had scheduled for a few days from then – but then came Bennett and turned everything upside-down."
Not for the first time. Bennett is known for his surprising political decisions, beginning with his sudden foray into national politics to become the head of the Jewish Home party a decade ago, continuing with his exit from said party to form the Yemina party, and finally his decision to form, for the first time in Israeli history, a government reliant on the support of an Arab party.
Even Bennett's long-time close confidante and political ally and partner Ayelet Shaked was informed of the decision to end the current government only an hour before the rest of the country. On the other hand, Matan Kahane - who has replaced Shaked as Bennett's choice to head Yemina if and when he (Bennett) quits altogether - was in on the decision-making process the entire day.
Mishnayot:
"For a number of weeks now, the MKs of the Likud have been waging a furious battle over the question of whether it would be better to strive for new elections or to try to form a government in the current Knesset. Most of the MKs, especially the more prominent ones such as Yisrael Katz, Yariv Levine and others, prefer new elections. But in the other camp is actually none other than Opposition and Likud head Binyamin Netanyahu, who would rather try to form a new government now.
"In light of Netanyahu's stance and the new political situation, the Likud began a race against the clock to try to form a new government. In an attempt to counter this, Bennett and Lapid sought to hold the vote on the dissolution of the Knesset as soon as possible – but they were thwarted by the Knesset legal counsel."
In addition, of course, Knesset House Committee Chairman Nir Orbach of Yemina – who has been instrumental in destabilizing the coalition ever since it failed to pass the Judea/Samaria regulations bill – did whatever he could to stall the vote.
A senior Likud official who wished to remain unnamed told Mishnayot that the potential candidates to join the 56 MKs and form a new government come not from Saar's party, which refuses to even consider it, but only from Blue and White. "But I don't think they will join us either, and I believe we are headed for new elections," he predicted already in the middle of last week.
Former Netanyahu media advisor Aviv Bushinsky is slightly more optimistic: "Until the vote is actually held, anything can happen, as we have seen in the past," he told Mishnayot. "There are many who don't want elections now, such as the hareidi parties… Not to mention other parties [Meretz, Yemina, the Arab Raam party] that are not sure they will even pass the minimum threshold to enter the Knesset in the next elections. Even Benny Ganz cannot be sure if his current popularity will be at the same level five months from now. True, they have all said that they want new elections – but when their backs are truly against the wall, things can change."
Mishnayot:
"Netanyahu's preference for a government now is based on his experience of the last four elections in which his party's victory did not translate into the ability to form a government. In addition, surveys throughout the past year show that this will be the case again. But although many believed it would be possible to form a new government in the current Knesset, most now feel that this option is no longer viable.
"If, as is appears likely, elections are held, there will be an election campaign of some 140 days – extremely long even for Israeli standards. One of the main questions that will occupy the nationalist camp is how to ensure that Netanyahu wins the support of 61 MKs, which he did not do for the past four elections. He himself is not sure that he will win; it will be hard, but not impossible.
"'At present he has some positive momentum,' says Nadav Shtrauchler, another former Netanyahu advisor. 'What can help him retain it is the fact that, for the first time in a long while, he will be running not as Prime Minister.'
"Many in the Likud, too, feel that the fact that Lapid will be Prime Minister during the campaign will be to Netanyahu's benefit. 'It makes the contest very clear,' says a Likud official. 'Everyone will see that he is running directly for Prime Minister, and it will bring out our voters to the polls… In addition, he can take votes from Meretz, which might lower Meretz below the threshold, giving our camp two more seats.'
"It is not at all unlikely that Meretz will fall beneath the threshold, as seen in recent polls. Meretz has been trying to join up with Labor, but Labor is not interested. At the same time, Raam, Yemina, and Sa'ar's New Hope party are in similar situations, and it is not even clear in what constellations and combinations the last two will run, if at all."
Regarding the future campaign, Bushinsky says that Netanyahu will have a relatively easy time: "The bottom line is that it was Lapid, and not Netanyahu, who formed a government with the Arabs. The motto will be very clear: 'Lapid formed a government with the [Arabs]' – and Lapid will have a hard time shaking off this label."
An interesting feature of this campaign will be MK Amichai Shikli. Originally a member of Yemina, he quickly parted ways with Bennett's party as soon as Bennett formed a coalition with an Arab party. The complicated Knesset regulations stipulate that he cannot run in the coming election with an existing party – but Shikli is appealing this decision. If he runs independently, he may siphon off votes from the Likud or the Religious-Zionist party without even getting into the Knesset himself. But if the court accepts his appeal, he is likely to be integrated into the Likud list of candidates. As far as the Religious-Zionist party of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, Netanyahu will be happy if it does well – but not too well, such as receiving 10 MKs or more, because then he would have to give it important ministerial positions in the coalition government.
Looming in the background is that this is Netanyahu's ninth campaign for national office – and, if he does not succeed, most likely his last one.
In short: Boring, it will not be.