by Kobi Eliraz, former Settlement Affairs advisor to various Israeli defense ministers, translated by Hillel Fendel.
Only just over six weeks remain for Israel to make a brave strategic decision.
[Translator's note: This past April, Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of missiles and drones, and Israel retaliated a week later. On October 1, Iran missile-attacked Israel once again, followed on Oct. 19 by a drone fired by Iran's proxies in Lebanon at Netanyahu's home in Caesaria. Israel's retaliation later that month included the destruction of an active nuclear weapons research facility – but security officials said then that this did not include Israel's response to the drone strike against Netanyahu's home. Though they indicated that further action could be expected, this has not yet happened.]
This week, explaining why he agreed to the ceasefire arrangement in Lebanon, Netanyahu said that one of the reasons was that it "enables us to focus on Iran - and I won't elaborate on that."
The window of opportunity for Israel to mortally, or at least very painfully, strike Iran is beginning to close. The clock is ticking, and our option for a significant blow will disappear even faster the more the international situation changes and a new United States president takes office.
Israel stands before a critical moment in which it must make a brave strategic decision, in spite of American and international reservations about - and pressures against - this course of action.
Even with the ongoing messaging back and forth between Jerusalem and Washington, it appears that Israel currently has a rare opportunity to act in Iran, precisely now during the changing of the guard of the U.S. Administration.
Iran, which well understands the greatness of the hour and the "complex" situation in which it finds itself, has refrained from responding with power to Israel's latest actions, even though it has often boasted to do so. This is the hour of Israel's test; it must realize that the time has come to change the rules of the game, Churchill-style.
Great leaders are measured during times of crisis, when a single decision can change the course of history. Winston Churchill was forced to make fateful decisions during the course of World War II – and he sometimes did so against the advice of his own advisors and international allies. He understood that the future of the British nation, and the entire free world, was dependent on his leadership.
So, too, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu now faces a historic test of leadership. The present situation can tolerate neither hesitation nor procrastination, and this is the precise hour for him to make a daring decision. What Israel does now will affect the strategy of the Islamic-fundamentalist terrorist countries and organizations, and thus Israel's security, for many years going forward.
History does not remember kindly, if at all, the leaders who waited. It reserves an honored place only for those who took action, initiated, and led.
Iran activates regional proxies such as Hamas, Hizbullah, Islamic Jihad, and others in Syria and Iraq. It represents a constant active threat to Israel and the stability of the entire Middle East. The Iranian proxies wait for instructions from Tehran, and Israel knows that if it precisely strikes the "head of the snake," those proxies will receive an equally precise message: "Israel is not playing just for its defense, but rather knows how to initiate and act whenever and wherever necessary."
It is likely that a unilateral Israeli strike of this nature will anger the U.S., but we must remember that there are those in the outgoing Biden Administration, and certainly in the incoming Trump Administration, who would actually support such a move. The appointees of Trump, in particular, who is known for his strong anti-Iran stance, could very well view this action as an opportunity to entrench his future policy vis-à-vis Iran. That is, an Israeli offensive will better position him regarding Iran, and against the Axis of Evil altogether.
Strategically speaking, a successful Israeli strike will present Israel as a leading power and as an independent force in the regional arena. This will of course strengthen Israel's stature in future negotiations, and will further fortify its status as a military and diplomatic powerhouse.
History teaches us that military initiatives, such as Operation Opera against Iraq's nuclear reactor in 1981, and Operation Outside the Box against a nuclear reactor in Syria in 2007, can effectively neutralize strategic threats. On the other hand, they also prove that refraining from such activity can be catastrophic. At the current time, a well-timed, precise, and successful strike against Iran will strengthen Israel in every possible arena, from north to south. It will even influence future moves by other countries in the region.
This is the moment when true leadership is measured. Israel must take advantage of the current Iranian sensitivity, and act with determination and wisdom. Any further delay reduces Israel's field of operations and strengthens our enemies.
Mr. Prime Minister, you have successfully passed historic tests over the past year – and now you face perhaps the most acute one of all. Just as Churchill acted with unwavering steadfastness during the crisis moments of the Second World War, so too you must lead the State of Israel today. If you perform correctly, you will be remembered not only as a leader on the local stage, but as one who changed the balance of power in the Middle East and safeguarded Israel's security for generations to come. Iran well understands its own weaknesses at this time, and precisely for that reason, Israel must strike now while the iron is hot – and relevant.