 | |
|
One major advantage of the union thus far is that it will spare much election campaign mud-slinging between the members.
In addition, one of the parties was just about 1,000 votes short in the previous election of receiving 4 Knesset seats; which means that all 138,598 votes that it did receive were invalidated, according to election rules, and thus lost to the nationalist camp. This time around, with the parties running together, a similar scenario will not be repeated, and in fact, the joint list can be expected to receive anywhere from 7 to 10 Knesset seats, and possibly even more.
Now for the specifics: The Jewish Home/National Union party (headed by Rabbi Rafi Peretz and Betzalel Smotrich) is now united with the New Right party (headed by Ayelet Shaked and Naftali Bennett). Still watching from the outside are Otzmah Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) and Zehut (Moshe Feiglin). Each of them is considered to be worth 2-3 seats if they run alone. Ben-Gvir is considered much more likely of a candidate for unity than Feiglin.
 |
| United Right Party leaders (Credit: Arutz Sheva/Twitter) |
Only one thing is certain, and that is that the larger the joint list, the cleaner will be the election campaign within the right-wing and nationalist camps. The various members of the list will have no need to defame, attack, or vilify their comrades in the joint list, and will be able to present their case in a positive manner. A campaign sans invective and vituperation is certainly a net gain, and should be assigned great value when considering whether Otzmah Yehudit should join or be included in the joint list.
The Larger Picture
At this point, let us digress for a moment and consider the larger picture: Though it has been repeatedly noted that these elections are particularly critical and fateful for Israel, etc. etc. – this is true only for the nationalist, right-wing, Land of Israel camp. If the left loses the election, its adherents will continue to go to work, complain about the government, and live their lives as usual. But if the nationalist camp loses, tens of thousands of Jews in Judea and Samaria need fear that they will be expelled from their homes when a left-wing government runs to implement any of the two-state solutions currently being circulated, Heaven forbid.
With this in mind, let us return to the "smaller" picture of Otzmah Yehudit and the united nationalist slate. Both conventional wisdom and natural instincts say that the more parties join together on a united list, the more voters this bloc will receive, and the fewer votes will be lost. Yet there is another side as well that must be considered. Yes, there are many in the larger nationalist camp who appreciate both the moderates and those who are somewhat more extreme; their vote for the united list is assured. But there are also those who cannot tolerate one or another of these elements, and are therefore not likely to vote for a joint list that includes both. They will say, "A plague on both your houses," and will throw their vote elsewhere.
Though this approach is as logical as cutting off one's nose to spite one's face, some voters feel that the ideological purity of their ballot is more important than the success of the nationalist camp. In short, unity will both attract voters and repel others. This must be taken into account when making campaign decisions.
What's Bibi's Motive?
In addition, Prime Minister Netanyahu has made no secret of the fact that he is pushing strongly to include Otzmah in the united list – and one must ask why. Certainly it could be that he fears the wasting of votes from the nationalist camp if Otzmah runs alone. But could it also be that Netanyahu will take advantage of the situation to attack the party and thus "sip up" votes for himself?
"The united right-wing party is a valuable asset to our future government," Netanyahu can be expected to say as the campaign nears its end, "but at this point, your vote could place in the Knesset an extremist such as Itamar Ben-Gvir! He is antithetical to the concepts of democracy, and it will come at the expense of the Likud and its ability to be chosen to form the next government!" He will thus scare off moderate nationalist voters from voting for the united list and into voting for the Likud – as he has done before.
It can therefore not be taken for granted that "more unity" is the best path to take.
If in the end Otzmah Yehudit runs alone, or together with the fledgling, splinter Noam party, the challenge will be to make sure that it receives enough votes to make it into the Knesset. Approximately 140,000 votes will be needed – no mean feat. In addition to the core base of Otzmah and Noam, some Land of Israel loyalists who would otherwise have voted for the united list will vote for Otzmah instead just to ensure that the 140,000 mark is reached. But the goal remains a very difficult one to achieve, and will require imaginative approaches.
And What About the Russians?
Another major question mark in the coming weeks is how Netanyahu will run his campaign.
Will he attempt to draw voters away from the united right-wing party that stands to his right? This would be an exercise in futility, as this party will practically be in his pocket in any event when it comes to forming a coalition government.
What Netanyahu should do, instead, is to attempt to draw votes away from Avigdor Lieberman's party. Lieberman, of course, is the reason why this election is being held so soon after the previous one. For it was he who abruptly betrayed his mostly right-wing voters when he refused to join Netanyahu's coalition, thus leaving the Prime Minister no choice but to call new elections. If Netanyahu is smart, he will overcome his urge to go for the low-hanging fruit of the united list, and will appeal to the Russian-speaking and secular communities, explaining why they should vote for the Likud and its principles of a healthy economy, prominence in the world arena, and development of the entire Land of Israel, and not for the anti-haredi platform of Lieberman.
Early indications are that he is in fact concentrating great efforts towards the Russian-speaking community, with mixed results so far.
Good luck to the People of Israel in the coming election!