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Monday, November 4, 2019

News Analysis: Dr. Guy Bechor: "It's Shi'ites Against Shi'ites; Israel Not Involved"

Channel 13 TV interview, which can be seen here (in Hebrew), edited and translated by Hillel Fendel
Screenshot of Dr. Guy Bechor's TV interview on Channel 13 (Youtube) 
Interviewer: Regarding the American liquidation of one of the worst murderers of our generation, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi – we have here Dr. Guy Bechor, expert on Middle East affairs and editor of the Gplanet.co.il website. Dr. Bechor, how significant was this liquidation?

Dr. Bechor: Firstly, it was a central campaign promise of President Trump. He told the Americans, "We're gonna start winning, winning, winning! And you'll come to me and say, 'Enough, we can't take all this winning! We're tired of it already!'" And the Americans love how he's keeping this promise…


Of course, in the media, it's a different story; they're in mourning. The Hebrew-language daily in Germany writes in its commentary today that the assassination is a "cause for celebration – but it's only temporary." [Interviewer chuckles.] Or take the Washington Post, whose goal it is to topple President Trump; it headlined the story, "Austere Religious Scholar at the Helm of Islamic State Dies at 48." [Interviewer laughs aloud.] Of course they later changed it after they were reprimanded… But that's how it works. And when you see these nothing-personalities that the Democrats are running with – the Democratic Party really lost out with these guys – you see how these things work.

Keep in mind that Trump really kept his word. When he made these promises [to defeat ISIS] in 2015, ISIS had an area larger than Great Britain – a third of Iraq and a third of Syria. No one believed that he would succeed, but he did. ISIS really did poorly; in Iraq, the Americans totally bombed Mosul and wiped out the city. The Americans said, "We'll bomb out the whole city, and everyone will die – and afterwards God will sort out who was evil and who wasn't."

Interviewer: Just like chemotherapy…

GB: Exactly. And the Russians, for their part, bombed the city of Raka, and ISIS was weakened there as well. But still, ISIS has 15,000 fighters left in the areas of Syria and Iraq. So it's not yet really totally over…

Two other points: Al-Baghdadi was hiding and received shelter in a town called Barisha, in a Turkish-controlled area on the border. This means that Turkey is once again playing a double game…

Interviewer:
You think the Turks knew that Al-Baghdadi was hiding there?

GB:
I believe so, yes. And even in the new compounds that Turkey is building in northeastern Syria, they are bringing in ISIS men and Sunni rebels. I explained two weeks ago that this precisely was the objective of President Trump: to bring in Sunni rebels and thus keep the Shi'ites busy with them. In other words, Turkey has always played a two-faced game, and they did it here too, regarding Bakr Al-Baghdadi, supporting ISIS. In my estimation, I think they had a deal, whereby ISIS would not attack in Turkey and Turkey would protect them. This should be taken into account.

Another point: Europe should be getting ready for the revenge that is likely to come during the upcoming winter holidays.

Interviewer: Do you have something to say about the Iraq-Syria situation?

GB: Most definitely. Another success of this American policy following the weakening of Iran's financial strength is seen in Lebanon and Iraq, where both governments are very shaky and are facing violent protests. Lebanon is in a huge conflagration, the likes of which we have not seen for many years, and there is an even greater one in Iraq. There were dozens of dead this past weekend in Baghdad, added to the hundreds who were killed over the past months in the southern Shi'ite cities. In Lebanon, only a few were killed, but the unrest is great, and Hizbullah doesn't know what to do.

What this means is that Iran is facing the possible loss of its assets! It wanted to build a Shi'ite crescent, starting with Iran, to Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut. But it sees that in Damascus there's a Sunni threat, with the help of Turkey's Sultan Erdogan who is sending in thousands of thousands of Sunni jihadist rebels; and in Baghdad, the government is liable to fall, facing a threat from Arab Shi'ites against Persian Shi'ites! Even the Shi'ites are dividing up one against the other. And in Lebanon –

Interviewer: Can't there be even two people there who live together in peace without killing each other?

GB: That's the Middle East – tribes, minorities, ethnic groups, and the like. Just think, they used to say that Israel is the problem in the Middle East! And there were even some Israelis who made a living promoting that thesis. But the Middle East shows its true colors, and Israel is the last problem to be dealt with here – and the truth is that of late, we've been forgotten.

At this point, it is possible that Iran will enlist its Revolutionary Guards – in Iraq and in Lebanon (Hizbullah) – in order to put down this unrest. And this is a dilemma for Iran, because if it does so too strongly, things are liable to heat up even more, as in Syria. But if it doesn't put down the riots, then they could get worse. This is a very big problem for them. For instance, the anti-Iranian leader in Iraq, Muqtada Sadr, warned Iran last night not to activate its Shi'ite militias, or else the revenge will be quick to come. Such that whoever thought there was order to the Shi'ites, was mistaken. The Sunnis will never allow them to have order there; this is a three-way pendulum of the Sunnis, Shi'ites, and Kurds that keeps swinging back and forth; it favored the Shi'ites in Sept. 2015 when Putin came in, and now it's beginning to swing back the other way.

Interviewer: There are those who say that there is no real practical value to the killing of Al-Baghdadi, and that it might even cause worse problems in the end.

GB: One can definitely sense a sour response on the part of the PC cult - because Al Baghadi is a Trump success. Let it be clear: Whatever this president does will always be bad with these guys. If he catches Al-Baghdadi, it's no good, and if he doesn't catch him, it's also no good. So we don't have to pay attention to this cult. This was a symbolic success, and that has value as well. This does not mean that the struggle is over; no one thinks it is.

Dr. Bechor was also asked about the demographic situation in Israel, and he enthusiastically quoted new statistics recently released by Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics: The gap between the number of births per Jewish mother and per Arab mother continues to rise, in favor of the Jewish side. At present the numbers are 3.17 per Jewish mother and 3.04 for Arabs and other non-Jews. "We have been fed for years and decades," Bechor said, "that we are doomed demographically; this was even one of the justifications for the retreat from Gaza. But now we learn that the opposite is true! Parity was reached in 2015, when both sides had 3.13, and now we see that it is rising in favor of the Jews. And if we take women born in Israel married to men born in Israel, the numbers are even higher: 3.3 births per woman! This is higher than all other industrialized nations."