Iran Sanctions Expiration: Biden Will Allow, Trump Will Not
[Dr. Guy Bechor spotlights a critical but all-but-ignored news development]
by Hillel Fendel
What's with the arms embargo on Iran that expired this week? It seems the media is busy with other topics, but at least Arab affairs expert Dr. Guy Bechor (Gplanet.co.il) is "on" this all-important issue.
He warns in his analysis this week that it could stir up trouble in South America, with Iranian rockets ending up in dictatorial Venezuela; that Obama-Kerry are to blame, not Trump; and that Russia and Iran signed an arms deal on the very first day after the embargo's expiration date.
But most important, Iran itself warns that only the U.S. and Israel have what to fear!
Bechor first describes the Iranian celebrations: "The Iranian 'media,' mouthpieces of the local regime, are celebrating the removal of the 13-year international embargo on Iran, which prevented the extreme-Islamic country from buying or selling arms and military equipment. Iranian leaders were filmed live cheering on their impoverished citizens to this effect: 'We have won! We succeeded in surviving four difficult years of Donald Trump, and now we're on our way to four years of victory and great achievements with Joe Biden!'"
Not a day goes by, writes Bechor, without the Iranian leaders joyously encouraging their people that Biden is on his way to a great victory in the coming elections. Could this itself not serve as a signal to American voters regarding the extent of the catastrophe that a Trump defeat is liable to bring on?
With the Iranian currency down to 350,000 rials per U.S. dollar, and the economy deteriorating daily, and with Corona levels among the worst in the world – the removal of the sanctions is about the only thing left for Iranian leaders to celebrate, Bechor notes: "Even paupers need something to be happy about."
"No country other than the U.S. and Israel has reason to fear Iran," stated Foreign Minister Zarif of the Iranian terror state. "This is a victory for peace and security in the entire region." Talk about cynicism…
Zarif said Iran would be willing to sell its advanced rockets and weapons to any country that is interested, "for self-defense purposes." The fast-paced videos accompanying the commemorations, showing Iran's advanced military products on the backdrop of heavy militaristic music appear to indicate the precise opposite, and that the weapons are quite meant for offensive purposes.
On sale are "paltry" missiles such as the Shihab, whose range is no more than 300 kilometers, alongside the Shumar, which can reach no less than 2,500 kilometers, or almost double the distance between Iran and Israel. Rockets of other ranges can also be purchased.
In fact, Russia did not wait even a full day from the time the embargo was officially removed before signing an agreement to sell Iran advanced combat jets. Iran says it also plans to purchase advanced air-defense systems made in Russia.
In short, if Biden is elected, Iran will find itself very quickly back in both the terror-sponsoring business and strengthening its own capabilities, planned for use against Israel and the U.S., Heaven forbid.
How did we get here? The scandalous agreement signed by former U.S. President Obama a few years ago specifies that the embargo on arms to and from Iran will be removed five years from the date of signing – namely, Oct. 18, 2020. This clause was a deal-breaker for the Iranians, and who went along with them? Obama, of course, and the Russians and the Europeans, who see Iran as an ideal cash-paying customer for its weapons. "Money answers all things," wrote King Solomon long ago.
Dr. Bechor notes, however, that the agreement was not actually signed, but is rather a "political commitment." Even more significantly, a UN Security Council resolution stated clearly that the sanctions will be removed only if Iran does not violate the agreement – and that if a party to the agreement, such as the U.S., determines that Iran is in violation, the sanctions will be re-activated; this is the famous Snapback clause.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in fact, declared before the Security Council that Iran is in violation of the agreement. He said that Iran manufactured more "heavy water" and more centrifuges than agreed, and placed restrictions on nuclear observers. Unsurprisingly, however, the Security Council voted in August to ignore these violations; 11 out of 15 members, including Germany and the other European members, abstained, and only the U.S. voted to hold Iran accountable. How hypocritical! This past January, Bechor recalls, England, France and Germany wrote an official letter stating that Iran was guilty of multiple agreement violations – yet when it comes to taking real action, they abstain in a Security Council vote!
The U.S. can apply its own sanctions, of course, but Iran, Russia and China claim that the Americans cannot force the international community to go along. They say that since Trump removed the U.S. from the agreement two years ago, it lost its say regarding sanctions.
Bechor says this argument is full of holes: "Legally, the ability to restore the sanctions belongs to the UN Security Council, independent of whether the US has withdrawn from the agreement. The Council's ability to do so is inviolable and cannot be abolished, for the US will veto such a decision."
The bottom line, then, is that while most of the parties have their eye on money and therefore claim that the embargo and sanctions have been removed – the US maintains that they are still in force.
In addition to their lust for money, the Europeans, Russians and Chinese feel that Biden will win the elections and that the Democrats will once again "soften" the demands and expectations from Iran. The Europeans, once again, are anxious to appease a bloodthirsty regime – one that has placed the Jewish State in its cruel sights.
Up until two years ago, Iran was able to use the $150 billion paid it by the U.S. to bolster the Shiite militias in Syria, as well as Hizbullah and other anti-Western terrorist groups. In the past two years, however, since the U.S. under Trump has stopped these payoffs, this trend has slowed down greatly. But now, Bechor says, "especially if Trump is not re-elected, the evil will once again rise and shine."
Dr. Bechor emphasizes that "the Americans who say Trump erred by leaving the agreement are speaking nonsense. He could not have stopped Iranian oil exports by remaining in the agreement – whereas before he quit the agreement, Iran was exporting two million barrels a day, and is now down to 100,000. Even that small amount is in exchange for goods, not money. The Trump Administration dried out Iran, bringing it nearly to its knees."
For at least another few months – and years, if Trump is re-elected – the following American declaration issued by Secretary Pompeo will be in force:
"American sanctions will be imposed on any person or entity involved in supplying, selling or transferring conventional weapons to or from Iran. This includes technological training, financial support, services, and any aid connected with weapons."
As has been the case for the past two years, this threat is expected to deter almost everyone – for no one wants to lose the chance to trade with American and its $20 trillion economy just so it can do business with Iran and its $450 billion (do the math: it's 45 times smaller). However, the threat is expected to be voided if Biden and the Democrats enter the White House this coming January.