by Hillel Fendel
[Two B'sheva commentators provide their political prognoses at this point in time]
Though Covid-19 appears to have no plans to leave us any time soon, the political process in Israel – always a source of fascination, though some would use a more negative term – continues along its wrangling way.
The ultimate question is: Will the "unity" government - comprising the two rival parties Likud and Blue-and-White - continue to limp along, or will Prime Minister Netanyahu arrange for new elections before the clause enabling Benny Gantz to replace him in rotation takes effect?
In this week's B'sheva newspaper, commentator Ze'ev Kam has an interesting take on it, as follows:
"Is it not true that you've already eulogized the Netanyahu-Gantz government, and certainly the option that the rotation clause would be implemented? That's OK, you're not alone; it's definitely the logical conclusion. But in this matter, logic really doesn't come into play. The decision whether to perpetuate this government will be taken by Netanyahu only after he makes another decision: To whom would he rather give the "rotation" and the premiership – to Benny Gantz, or perhaps to Naftali Bennett?
"In Netanyahu's circles there is a working assumption that goes like this: The polls presently give Bennett and his Yemina party close to 25 Knesset seats – something very close to victory, if not an actual win. Therefore, even if he ultimately receives only, say, 15 seats, he can go to Netanyahu after the elections and say: 'I am certainly willing to join a government headed by you – but only on condition that we make a rotation agreement for Prime Minister. Not only that, but I'll be first and you can be second.'
"Bennett will further say, 'Don't feel obligated. I can always join up with the other camp, headed by Yair Lapid, and make a similar deal.' He will certainly have a strong case, as the left-center camp will apparently do anything to be rid of Netanyahu.
"Many in the Likud fear that this is the most likely post-elections scenario. They still hope to somehow increase their standing in the polls, lower Bennett to what they feel is his natural position – 10 or so Knesset mandates – and, if possible, have some kind of Corona vaccine available. If they can hold the elections precisely after all this happens, their situation will look much rosier.
"But if not, and if Bennett's star continues to shine, and Corona continues to wreak havoc, it is very likely that Netanyahu will reason like this: 'I just have to ensure that when Gantz takes over, I take over his position as Alternate Prime Minister, and continue along for another two years with a solid parliamentary majority.' For Netanyahu, it would seem that even this option is better than having to enter into coalition negotiations with his long-time rival, Naftali Bennett."
This is not a very optimistic turn of events for the nationalist camp, of course. But given the fact that Netanyahu did not deal with the growing left-wing bias in the judicial branch when he had a chance to do so several years ago, and given the legal troubles that he must now deal with as a result, it is almost understandable that he will do nearly anything to delay having to stand trial on the very questionable charges he faces in court.
Commentator Yair Sherki has another take on the Prime Minister's political fortunes, in the same issue of B'sheva:
"Two rays of light shined this past week in the very cloudy Netanyahu skies: the relative improvement in the Corona statistics as a result of the lockdown, and the publication of recordings [indicating that Attorney-General Mandelblitt felt almost blackmailed to file the charges against Netanyahu]. The fact is that the Prime Minister's fortunes, political and otherwise, will be decided on these two fronts – Corona and law-enforcement. Interestingly, each of these two developments somehow weakens the other, preventing Netanyahu from reaping the full benefits of each.
"Netanyahu's near fixation on his legal matters in the middle of the Corona crisis, as understandable as it may be, has harmed him in the public eye. Even some of his supporters are impatient at having to deal with reports of the Prosecution's injustices when the country is in the middle of a lockdown, the economy is suffering, and the threat of a Health Ministry collapse still looms. In addition, when the Prime Minister moves to bring down the public's confidence in the Prosecution and the police, he also crumbles the citizens' will to follow the Corona regulations. Success in facing the national health crisis requires strong trust and obedience on the part of the public, whereas the fight on the legal front aims at destabilizing the public's confidence in the governmental frameworks."
Sherki notes that the issue around which new elections will either be called or not is the passage of the annual budget. The Likud is trying to have a one-year budget passed, for the year 2020 alone, while Blue and White demands a budget now, or very soon, for 2021 as well: "The Likud is confident that they will succeed at the last minute in convincing Gantz and his government ministers to agree to pass only the 2020 budget, leaving the option of calling new elections in March 2021, at a convenient time for the Likud. However, Blue and White vows not to allow Netanyahu this luxury, and says clearly: 'Either we approve a two-year budget within two months,' which will likely guarantee the survival of the government and the implementation of the rotation agreement – 'or else the Knesset dissolves and new elections are called.'"
Sherki's analysis concludes with words that complement Kam's appraisal above: "It's true that new elections will probably mark the end of Gantz's political career, and Blue and White's ministers will not return to their offices – but they probably feel that by shortening their already-abbreviated terms by just three more months, they will be able to put an end to Netanyahu's record-breaking term in office – even if in the end, the one to gain will be Naftali Bennett."