By Emmanuel Shilo, translated by Hillel Fendel
Netanyahu succeeded in combining the two strongest religious-Zionist parties, and then managed to persuade much-smaller Noam to join as well. But there is still the issue of the amateurishly risky run by the combination of Ayelet Shaked and the remnants of the Jewish Home – liable to cost the nationalist camp up to three Knesset seats, leaving the government in left-center-Arab hands.
Binyamin Netanyahu showed his political prowess at least twice again this month. The first time was when he put together, in his home in Caesaria, the agreement between Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir (leaders of the Religious Zionism and Jewish Strength parties, respectively) paving the way for their joint run for the Knesset in the coming elections. The second time was this past week, when he took the trouble to pay a visit to the home of Rav Tzvi Tau, Rosh Yeshivat Har HaMor in Jerusalem. The former PM explained to the Rabbi the tremendous importance of having the Noam party he guides run together with the above joint list. Whereupon, Rav Tau instructed MK Avi Maoz to accept the 11th spot on the list, even though until then, that spot had been deemed beneath the dignity of the important values Naom stands for (Jewish identity, Jewish family, etc.).
Netanyahu's main talking points, apparently, were that most polls see the list receiving 12 seats, thus that Maoz will enter the Knesset, and also that if Noam were to run alone, many religious nationalist votes would be wasted.
The former prime minister knows that this is likely his last chance to regain his prime ministerial seat – for if the nationalist-right bloc does not succeed in attaining 61 MKS, the Likud party pressure upon him to step down will reach record levels. Under such circumstances, every splinter of a lost mandate could end up being critically decisive.
If Netanyahu had not succeeded in convincing Noam to accept the 11th slot, MK Maoz and his party would have declared an independent run and would have run a solo campaign over the course of the next six weeks. They might have pulled out at the last minute, as they did two election campaigns ago, in 2020, or they might have actually pushed through until the end, wasting up to half a Knesset seat.
But the potential damage would not have been only in terms of wasted votes; it would have created an ugly atmosphere of religious-Zionist infighting. Instead, we can now let out a sigh of relief that we have been spared division of this type. We can also hope that the polls continue to reflect a positive showing, such that Avi Maoz will be able to carry on his Knesset efforts for the important values that his party stands for. It is worthwhile to note that Noam has thousands of very dedicated activists, students of various "daughter yeshivot" of Har HaMor, and they will give their all to ensure that the Smotrich-Ben-Gvir list will receive at least 11 Knesset seats. Their contribution in the holiday weeks preceding the election is likely to be of great significance.
But this does not yet neutralize the danger that, as happened six elections ago in 2013, enough religious-nationalist votes will be wasted to help prevent the establishment of a nationalist government. And as in 2019, the one who is taking this chance is Ayelet Shaked. Three years ago it was her ally and mentor Naftali Bennett who dragged her along, but this time the full responsibility is on her own shoulders.
Shaked's gasping battle for political survival led her at first to join forces with MK Yoaz Hendel, until recently a member of the "Just-Not-Bibi" camp." She declared that together they would try to force the formation of a unity government and thus save the country. At practically the last minute, however, when she saw that the alliance with Hendel was not helping to reach sufficient voters [and given Hendel's absolute rejection of a right-wing government], Shaked gave Hendel the slip and once again declared, "My heart is in the right-wing camp." She allied herself with the remnants of the Jewish Home party, headed by Yossi Brodni, added Chanan Porat's son Amitai and Atty. Nitsana Darshan-Leitner to her list, and off she went on her own. Her goal is to attract the nearly 150,000 voters – at the expense of the other nationalist parties, of course – necessary to get her back into the Knesset.
[Incredibly, as we go to press, Shaked is reported saying she would not rule out including the Arab Ra'am party in a broad government.]
I am not a prophet, but it is almost certain that Shaked-Brodni will not receive support sufficient for four Knesset seats. This means that all those who do vote for her will see their votes thrown away, leaving the right-wing camp that much further from being able to form a government. Her run is an irresponsible escapade. If she does not call it off, Shaked will be remembered in infamy as a serial vote-burner and one who caused irreparable damage to religious-Zionism and to the nationalist camp.
The above-named Porat, Brodny, and Darshan-Leitner – all of whom have many accomplishments to their names – are behaving similarly irresponsibly by joining up with Shaked. They may claim that their party will attract those religious-Zionist voters who simply cannot bring themselves to vote for either the Likud or Smotrich/Ben-Gvir. The problem is that there are simply not enough of such voters to enable it to pass the minimum threshold.
We can only hope that Shaked's potential voters will show more responsibility than those who wish to represent them, and will not throw away their votes. Alternatively, we can also hope that Shaked and friends will realize their mistake and withdraw – and perhaps Netanyahu will work his magic on them as well!