by Assaf Mishnayot, Besheva, translated by Hillel Fendel
With the polls showing that Israelis are still about equally divided as they head to seek to choose their next government, here are the various scenarios that Israel could face following next week's elections
Israel's longest-ever election campaign, which began four months ago, ends in a week from now, when Israelis will go to the polls for the fifth time (!) in 3.5 years. The political situation is essentially no different than it was when the first of these five elections were held: the nationalist camp holds a strong majority, but because of anti-Netanyahu forces within it, he has been unable to form a coalition. The only other coalition formed during this period – by Naftali Bennett with the support of an Arab party – lasted only for a year, ending this past summer.
As of now, the polls show consistently that the Netanyahu bloc is very close to a 61-MK majority, leaving two scenarios: Either he will be able to form a government, or he will not and a sixth election campaign will have to be held. A third possibility, that Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party will be able to lead a 61-seat coalition, is so unlikely that it barely merits a mention. It requires that all four of the small viable left-wing parties – Meretz, Labor, and the two Arab parties – receive the required minimum, AND that the right-wing members of Benny Ganz's list agree to sit with Arab parties in the same government. Nothing to discuss here.
Recent polls have shown that the two political blocs have basically remained constant throughout the campaign. The only changes are within the camps themselves, with both the Likud and Lapid's party making some gains at the expense of their own smaller allies.
Getting Out the Vote!
What everyone seems to agree on is that the real name of the game is apparently voter turnout. The contest is: Which side will succeed in bringing more voters to the polling stations on Election Day? Likud supporters have shown a statistically-significant tendency to say they do not plan to vote at all, and left-wing voters are also not sufficiently excited about showing up to vote.
However, there is another problem: Complex formulas govern allocation of the 120 Knesset seats, for the following reason: If a party receives 7.9% of the vote, for instance, meriting it 9.5 Knesset seats, the seat-fraction must be translated somehow into a complete seat for one party or another. What will help determine the numbers to be crunched is the total amount of votes to be counted – which itself is very much influenced by how many parties receive or do not receive the necessary minimum amount of votes. As of now, several parties are wavering around this minimum, mainly on the left. On the right, Ayelet Shaked's Jewish party is receiving roughly 2% in the polls, significantly less than the required 3.25%.
The polls have also been showing that the Arab sector is relatively apathetic – which could mean, in the most extreme case, that no Arab party makes it in, and/or maybe Meretz as well. This would of course mean that the Netanyahu bloc would easily receive 61 MKs, if not more.
What Netanyahu Promised
Assuming the most likely scenario, that Netanyahu forms the next government, it would seem that it would likely be a narrow right-wing government, featuring the Likud and Smotrich, Ben-Gvir, Shas, and United Torah Judaism. Netanyahu has promised that he will definitely turn to these parties before seeking out Benny Ganz for the purposes of a broader unity government.
However, events of the past few days – such as the holiday celebration in Kfar Chabad where Netanyahu emphatically refused to ascend the stage before Ben-Gvir descended so as not to be photographed together – strengthen the possibility that Netanyahu will actually not go right, but rather center-left, as he has done in the past.
We spoke with two political experts about the various possibilities that could result from next week's election. Aviv Bushinsky, a former top political consultant to Binyamin Netanyahu, told us: "Even if Netanyahu has 61 seats in his block, he intends to turn first to Ganz, as well as others, even though they do not fit the bill of his potential partners. He will emphasize that the country faces many challenges, necessitating a broad coalition … Netanyahu knows that he will not be happy with a 61-seat coalition, which will rely largely on Itamar Ben-Gvir, as well as on Betzalel Smotrich, who prevented him from forming a coalition with [the Arab] Raam party in the last cycle."
"Past experience shows us," Bushinsky continued, "that Netanyahu always turns first to the center or the left [to form a coalition] before turning to the right, and I believe that he will do this after these elections as well. His offer to Ganz will be very generous."
Bushinsky said that Netanyahu wants more flexibility than the religious-Zionist parties will grant him: "There are truly many challenges on the table, and [Smotrich and Ben-Gvir] are ideological people who present a hardline view that is not easy to work with, while Ganz is much more easy-going. In addition, choosing Ganz allows him an 'escape hatch' in the form of a U-turn and forming a 61-seat coalition; Ben-Gvir will certainly not be the one to prevent that from happening, as he wants to be a minister."
Q. Why should Benny Ganz agree to join up with Netanyahu?
Bushinsky: "That's already a different question. If Ganz feels he has no political future if he doesn't join the government that Netanyahu will form in any event, he will join him; he doesn't want to die out in the desert of the opposition."
There are many who disagree with Bushinsky's prediction. For one thing, the Likud talking points emphasize repeatedly that if the bloc receives 61 seats, a full-fledged nationalistic government will be formed. Likud MK Mickey Zohar has also made this clear in several recent interviews. In addition, there are no signs as of now that Ganz's partner Gideon Saar has softened his opposition to joining a Netanyahu-led government.
Former Labor MK Eitan Cabel feels that the pledges to form a right-wing government are not merely campaign promises, but are quite genuine. "If Netanyahu gets 61, he will go right," Cabel told us. "It won't be easy, and it could be that it's not his first choice, but given today's political map, that's what he will do. Ultimately, he has two goals: to become Prime Minister again, and to somehow be saved from his trial. Smotrich's plan regarding the justice system will help him greatly." Smotrich's plan features mainly the nullification of most or all "breach of trust" crimes, because of their undefined nature and their history of being used unfairly against politicians, including Netanyahu.
The conventional wisdom in the media is that 61-member coalitions are very unstable and quickly lead to new elections, as happened to the outgoing Bennett-Lapid government. But Cabel feels differently: "In practice, the most stable governments have actually been very narrow. The Bennett government was an exception because it had many different agendas, and were united only by 'just not Bibi!' … The Likud and Netanyahu want stability and that's why they want a narrow coalition – though even such a government will not serve out its full term."
Cabel believes that Netanyahu is not likely to turn first to Benny Ganz: "Netanyahu would have to offer him the premiership in a rotation agreement, in which Ganz would want to be first, and Netanyahu would not be able to do that."
Another option for Netanyahu is the event that Ayelet Shaked succeeds in passing the threshold. This is unlikely at present, given her showing in the polls – unless if Netanyahu himself gives her a boost by appealing to supporters of Ganz and Lapid to vote for her. But if it does happen, both Bushinsky and Cabel agree that she would join a Netanyahu government, despite the tensions between them resulting from her leading role in the outgoing government.
What happens if the Netanyahu bloc receives exactly 60 MKs – just enough to prevent him from forming a narrow government? In such a case, where it is the very presence of Netanyahu that keeps Saar and others from joining, it would seem likely that Netanyahu would in fact have to move over and make room for someone else to head the Likud.
"If Netanyahu leaves the scene," Cabel said, "the Likud could form a government in a matter of minutes. After all, while Netanyahu has 60 seats supporting him, more or less, there are many others who are considered right-wing who would join the Likud sans Netanyahu. He knows this too, and that this is his last chance. The push will come from within the Likud, and from outside as well. Smotrich and the hareidim know that the majority in Israel is right-wing, and they don't intend to allow the center-left to gain power again. They will make it clear that Netanyahu has to go."
Bushinsky agrees, but says that in the event of 60-60, Netanyahu will seek to form a unity government with Yair Lapid. It's Netanyahu's only chance, while from Lapid's standpoint, he knows that this would be his only chance to be Prime Minister, given the country's right-wing bent. "Netanyahu could let him continue to be PM for another short period," Bushinsky predicts, "and then take over for two years. It's win-win for both, as Lapid might be seen as his natural successor."
There are those who feel that such a scenario would receive an additional push from the direction of the President's Residence. President Yitzchak Herzog has succeeded thus far in developing a strong public image, both on the right and the left, and he is likely to seek to use it to try to solve the political mess by pushing for a unity government.
This might bring a short-term resolution, but it is still a form of a band-aid for our political situation. The many question marks we have raised here will not disappear so quickly.