by Hillel Fendel
As seen from across the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, American politics seem to the average Israel voter to be quite convoluted: Every single one of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives is up for grabs, as are another 30-plus Senate seats, and the balance of power is in limbo. In addition, the Democrats seem not to have a single viable candidate for the presidential campaign that is set to begin only about six months from now.
Still and all, when it comes to complexity and convolution, nothing can top the Israeli political scene, with its dozen or so parties and a host of possible coalition permutations.
To make it somewhat easier to understand, here are some of today's political headlines and developments in Israel, just hours before the exit polls are published for the 5th Knesset electoral elections since 2019:
"Ben-Gvir will Break with Smotrich Very Soon After the Elections" (Arutz-7)
Explanation: The Religious-Zionism and Jewish Strength parties, headed by Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, respectively, are running on the same ticket. This union was an achievement for the nationalist and religious camps, preventing the need for mutual mud-slinging during the campaign and enabling the masses of religious-Zionist voters to avoid having to choose between the two; a single ballot slip, with the letter Tet, can now be cast for either party.
Not so surprisingly, however, the union appears to be short-lived. Because of the differences in style and emphasis between the two leaders, Ben-Gvir is planning, according to reports, to regain his "independence" and form a separate Knesset faction in the new Knesset. There have been early indications of this development: The two parties have waged separate election campaigns, and their post-election celebrations will even take place in two different places – apparently at the initiative of Ben-Gvir's party.
The joint list is expected to gain anywhere from 13-15 Knesset seats, according to the latest polls – more than any other religious-Zionist list has ever received in an Israeli election in history.
The Religious-Zionist party, characteristically more laid-back in its declarations than Jewish Strength, responded to the report: "Just as we worked together during the campaign, we will work for continued cooperation and coordination after the election as well, including in the coalition negotiations." The reference is to the talks that the leader of Israel's largest party – presumably, Binyamin Netanyahu of the Likud – will hold with his potential coalition partners in order to form a coalition government. This issue is fairly sensitive, as Netanyahu has often in the past given coalition precedence to parties well to the left of the religious-Zionist party. In addition, some potential coalition partners on the center-left are not at all happy about joining a coalition with Smotrich or with Ben-Gvir – but the latter arouses even more opposition than the former. Ben-Gvir has announced that he intends to seek the Public Security (Police) portfolio in the next government; Netanyahu has not committed to this, but some reports are that Ben-Gvir's announcement was coordinated with him in advance.
"Four Small Left-Wing Parties – Can They All Really Pass the Threshold?" (Israel Hayom)
Dr. Nadav Shragai, an Election Polls and Public Opinion researcher from Ariel University, says that in recent election campaigns, left-wing media outlets have often under-estimated nationalist camp support – much more frequently than right-wing media under-estimated left-wing support or over-estimated nationalist party gains.
Shragai said that when polls show, for instance, that a party is not reaching the minimum threshold, this could be a deathblow for them, as people do not want to "waste" their votes. This then leads to a self-fulfilling forecast, as the party loses voters. He said that it is very suspicious that four parties on the left – Labor, Meretz, and two Arab parties – are consistently shown to be hovering just above the required minimum level, yet not one poll has predicted that any of them will fail to pass! "I think there is a certain fear on the part of the pollsters to take responsibility for being the first one to predict that one of the parties will not hit the threshold," Shragai said – alluding to the expected backlash that such a prediction would cause to the left-wing party in question.
Ganz's Plan to Become Prime Minister (Arutz-7)
If Netanyahu is not able to form a coalition, either because his bloc does not receive 61 seats or for other reasons, Defense Minister Benny Ganz has a plan that he hopes will render him Prime Minister. Ganz heads the Public Camp party, comprising his center-left party Blue and White, together with Gideon Saar's right-leaning New Hope party. The party is expected to receive fewer seats than Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party, and about the same as the religious-Zionist list.
Ganz is hoping that either after or before Netanyahu, Lapid will be given the chance to form a government. Ganz feels that Lapid will certainly fail, paving the way for him to step in and "save the day." Ganz will hope to attract all the left-wing parties, as well Yesh Atid, and even at least one of the two hareidi parties. Ganz's party assumes and hopes that the hareidim will rather join such a government than face a sixth election campaign, for various reasons.
On the other hand, strongly in the background lies the well-accepted notion that if Netanyahu does not succeed in forming a government, the Likud will act to replace him. This will likely pave the way for a Likud-led government with several right-leaning parties that refuse to serve under Netanyahu.
One other issue that interests nationalist voters is Ayelet Shaked and the Jewish Home party. She has consistently received only roughly 2% in the polls, and she lost some high-profile supporters this week. It is increasingly felt that her party has no chance of entering the Knesset, and also that the votes wasted on it will also not make a real difference in the final tally.
Bottom line: If Dr. Shragai is right – that the pollsters generally underestimate nationalist camp support – and if right-wing voters are not apathetic and show up to vote, perhaps the right-wing camp will do better than it now fears.