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Wednesday, October 2, 2024

A Great Chance for Major Change in Iran and the Middle East

Based on an article by Brig.-Gen. (res.) Tzvika Chaimovich, translated by Hillel Fendel.




"This is the beginning of the end of the accursed Iranian regime." – Israeli Cabinet Minister Zohar

This past April 14th was a defining event in Israel's decades-long struggle with its enemies. After years of threats and scares from Iran, the Islamic Republic finally let the shoe drop in response to Israel's assassination of a high-ranking terrorist in the regime's Revolutionary Guards. Iran fired off, in three waves, a total of more than 300 cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones towards Israel. The damage and injuries caused were minor. 

But once this barrier was broken, the path to a second Iranian strike was much easier and quicker. It happened tonight [Thursday], a half-year after the first one – but with greater fury. Given the condition in which Hizbullah finds itself after Israel all but wiped out its leadership, it was clear to Iran that it would have to react much more strongly this time. Though the number of rockets was lower, approximately 180, there was barely a locale in Israel that was not targeted. 1,864 air-raid sirens were sounded throughout the country in the space of an hour and a half.

The results, again, were not proportionate to the effort: One Arab from Gaza was killed in Jericho, and three Israelis were lightly wounded.

With this attack, our direct war against Iran entered a new phase, which will accompany us for a long time to come. Israel's response will be put to the test – to be checked throughout the Middle East and even the world – and it must be more powerful than the last time. 

Israel's air force has been quite occupied over the past year on several fronts. But there is no doubt that Thursday night's rocket attacks from Iran have been the most challenging offensive we have faced. Our defenses will never be hermetic, but we know that if we are hit even just a bit, it could lead to a decline in morale and confidence in our army. 

Our fight against Iran – an international superpower in its ballistic rocket capabilities – is a complex one, and demands a regional response, combining both Israel's abilities and those of the coalition.

After the two Iranian missile attacks, in April and now, it can be said that Iran has chosen to respond to Israel in an extreme and aggressive manner. There is no doubt that the Israeli-led events of the past few weeks pushed Iran into a corner that "compelled" it to act with full force. Is Iran reading correctly the expected responses of both Israel and the United States? 

On the one hand, Iran announced late last night that its vengeance for whatever it was avenging was completed, and that if Israel wants to invite more vengeance by attacking now, it is welcome to do so. Israel, on the other hand, so far shows no signs of backing down – and it is likely that that we are facing an opportunity to change the entire Middle East reality in a most significant manner. This is true specifically in Iran, which is responsible for the Axis of Evil that includes Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas, the Houthis, and more. 

Special Add-on

Excerpted comments after the Iranian attack 

"Iran made a very great mistake tonight, and it will pay for it. Whoever attacks us, we will attack back." – Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu

"When Iran is finally free – and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think…" – Netanyahu, in a post-attack video address to the People of Iran

"We don't yet know the ramifications for Iran [of this attack]… I will talk about with Netanyahu." – paraphrased remarks of US President Joe Biden. The White House issued a statement stating there would be very grave consequences for Iran.

Perhaps most significant of all was the statement by Cabinet Minister Miki Zohar, who said: "This was Iran's worst mistake ever, and it will a pay a very high price. This is the beginning of the end of the accursed Iranian regime."

Ynet commentator Amichai Atali wrote: "We may not suffice with anything less than the removal of the Iranian threat… The Iranian attack tonight provided us with a perfect opportunity and justification for carrying out that which is so very indicated: to once and for all take out Iran's ability to harm us… If Iran is allowed to develop nuclear weapons, Israel will become a country unworthy of inhabitation. If our government does not take the right steps now, but rather suffices with token moves, it will enable Iran to keep on marching towards destroying Israel, its stated goal."