by Hillel Fendel, former editor of Arutz-7's IsraelNationalNews.com.
The decision by U.S. President Donald Trump – the most
unpredictable American president Israel has ever had to deal with, to put it
mildly – to sell an unspecified number of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia has
many in Israel's defense network quite nervous about what this will mean for
the future balance of power in the Middle East.
The IDF General Command submitted to the government an official Israel Air
Force memorandum warning in detail how the sale would impair Israel's air
superiority.
President Trump and his family have well over $60 billion in potential
business deals with the Saudis, according to a New York Times report today
(Nov. 19). Coincidentally, or not, just minutes after Trump announced his plans
to sell the planes to the Saudi kingdom, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrived
in Washington and was hosted in grand fashion in the White House. This, despite
significant intelligence – based on a CIA report – that the Crown prince approved,
and was probably involved in the planning of, the murder of Washington Post
journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
Among the Trump deals being negotiated in the kingdom: a Trump-branded
property to Diriyah, one of Saudi Arabia’s largest government-owned real estate
developments, to the tune of $63 billion; a $1 billion “Trump Plaza”
development in Jeddah; and two projects in Riyadh. The Times also
reports that a firm of Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and his part-time
Middle East envoy, is involved in talks with a Saudi sovereign fund to
"take the video game publisher Electronic Arts private… a deal valued
at around $55 billion."
But despite the stench of conflicts-of-interest emitted by the above, what's
more critical is whether, and to what extent, this development presents an
existential danger for Israel.
The Israel Air Force memo emphasizes that Saudi acquisition of the jets
would compromise the operational exclusivity of Israel's F-35's, for which
Israel received special US permission to integrate its own avionics, software,
and weapons. The F-35 is much more than a fighter jet; it is totally unique in
that it is also a stealthy, nearly radar-evasive intelligence platform.
Its advantages and deterrence abilities depend on its exclusivity,
which would be compromised at best if Saudi Arabia comes into possession of
similar aircraft.
Many in the U.S. defense establishment are also worried
about the deal. They have warned that close Saudi ties with powers such as China
and Russia increase the possibility that sensitive avionics or related data
could find their way into enemy hands.
Another concern – although this could work to Israel's
advantage – is that Israel's QME (Qualitative Military Edge) must be
maintained, according to United States law. Specifically, the Israel Strategic
Partnership Act of 2014, and related provisions in the Foreign Assistance Act,
originally passed in 1961, mandate that Israel must maintain a QME over
potential regional adversaries. American law also states that arms transfers to
Middle Eastern countries may not undermine Israel’s ability to defend itself. Whether
the sale in question reduces Israel's QME will be determined by the individual
members of Congress, whoever, they may be, when the sale is ratified, or
rejected, by the required Congressional vote.
Today's situation is somewhat reminiscent of a controversy
in the early 1980's, when the Reagan administration pushed to sell five E-3
AWACS early-warning aircraft to Saudi Arabia. Israel and many in Congress
feared it would tip the regional balance and endanger Israeli security, and an intense
lobbying and public opinion battle ensued – which Israel lost. The Senate
narrowly approved the deal in October 1981, and the AWACS aircraft were
delivered to Saudi Arabia several years later – after Israel received enhanced
U.S. military aid and technology as compensation.
Similarly, in 2020, the first Trump administration moved
toward selling F-35s to the United Arab Emirates, leading to another major
diplomatic struggle. The deal ultimately did not go through.
The current deal, as well, may have a silver lining, in that
it might force the U.S. to make other major concessions to Israel in related or
other areas. In addition, the sale might not be approved by Congress. A future
President, as well, can also halt the sale.
Political commentator Barak Ravid was quick to write an
article today, seeking to allay Israeli fears about the sale of the F-35's to
the Saudis. Whether he was successful is given to debate. He wrote that it will
take at least six years before the first plane will land in Saudi Arabia, that there
will be "not a few" restrictions on the Saudis' use of the planes,
and the Americans will retain "not a little" control over them.
Hopefully, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israel's diplomatic
and PR teams will be sufficiently resolute and creative to find the golden path
between ensuring Israel's security in the face of future threats and remaining
on good terms with Mr. Trump.