Generals with Cognitive Dissonance

by Dr. Tzvi Sadan, translated by Hillel Fendel.

Editorial note: This article was originally published in Hebrew on Monday morning, some 30 hours before hundreds of Hizbullah cell phones exploded in Lebanon. 

It's clear that even now, after everyone should have known already that there's no difference between Hamas and the Fatah-run Palestinian Authority, that Israel's security establishment continues to believe in the "Hamas is deterred" (mis)conception. (It should really be known as the Kaplan conception, in honor of the Kaplan St. protestors who have been demanding the return of the hostages, whereas the true goal of many of them is to bring down the government.) 

Because the old conception continues to be their underlying perception, the military bigwigs are convinced that we can "calm down" our enemies if we simply give them weapons from Iran, money from Qatar, and work in Israel.

A report on Channel 13 from a week ago makes this quite clear: "The Defense Minister, the head of the Shabak, and the IDF Chief of Staff warned the Cabinet regarding the security situation in Judea and Samaria, and asked that things there be calmed down – with an emphasis on transferring money to the PA and not changing the status quo on the Temple Mount. If the situation in fact blows up, the IDF's response will come at the expense of the combat in Gaza." [The last sentence was meant as a warning. - HF]

There are other ways, of course, to "calm things down." For instance, Israel could drop a bomb on the parade of Nukhba [Oct. 7th] terrorists in Jenin, or exile the residents of Hawara to Nablus, or establish new Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria. But [Chief of Staff] Hertzi HaLevi, [Defense Minister Yoav] Galant, and [Shabak head Ronen] Bar would rather "calm down the PA street" just as they calmed down Gaza. They feel that, "If we just give our partners in the territories guns, money, and good jobs, for sure we'll have quiet; if it worked so well in Gaza, why shouldn't it work in Yosh as well? They're the same Arabs, no?" [The last sentence is a cynical play on the claim of hawks in Israel when warning about the dangers presented by various Arab elements. - HF]

There are several other indications that the pre-Oct. 7th conception has not only not disappeared, but has actually, incredibly, strengthened over the past year. We continue to heart things like: If the Gilad Shalit deal succeeded in bringing a measure of quiet (which it did not), then it's logical to think that a small hostage deal now will do the same, no? And if after the Disengagement/expulsion from Gush Katif we were able to return to the Philadelphi Route whenever we wanted (not), then for sure we can abandon it now and return again at the snap of our fingers, no? As the talking heads continue to make these statements, it is clear that the Kaplan conception is still alive and kicking.

This adherence to a concept that has turned out to be disconnected from reality, lacking in factual basis, and disastrous – is, among other things, the result of a belief that has developed in our circles that security assessments are a type of prophecy, and that the heads of our intelligence agencies are prophets – unfortunately, false ones. Those security chiefs who continue to adhere to the "Kaplan concept" are behaving as irrationally as members of a cult. 

Many have long understood that Galant, Hertzi and Bar are stuck in their belief in the false conception – but as for me, I only really got it just recently. It happened when I heard that some in the IDF and Shabak actually want to give guns to the Palestinian Authority, and bring PA workers in to Israel, for the purpose of "quieting things down."

"Hey," I said to myself, "I think these guys [the heads of the Defense Ministry, IDF, and Shabak] have a bad case of cognitive dissonance." This is a condition that deeply affects one's judgement, and characterizes cult members, whose false beliefs often become stronger the more they are proven to be wrong and in direct contrast with reality.

 Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schachter were apparently the first to identify this condition, in their work "When Prophecy Fails." Their book revolved around a cult called the Seekers, whose members believed that a great flood was to happen on a particular date, and that they themselves would be saved from it by aliens on a flying saucer. The three authors studied the members before and after, and discovered that many of them, with cognitive dissonance, continued to believe in the flood and the flying saucer even after the date passed in total dryness. 

These cult members endangered no one other than themselves – but the members of the "Hamas is deterred" cult, who also appear to suffer from the above syndrome, continue to speak and act as if Hamas and Fatah and other enemies can be deterred – and this endangers all of us in a most concrete manner.

My diagnosis that cognitive dissonance is harming their judgement is one of a historian, not a psychologist, and therefore cannot justify compelling them to be professionally treated. It is sufficient, however, to strongly recommend that they be fired from their positions – and I therefore strongly recommend to the Government of Israel and the man at its helm not to allow those who place Israel in concrete existential danger to remain in their posts.

The Pen, the Sword – and the Hilltops

by Doron Nir-Tzvi, INN, translated by Hillel Fendel.

The IDF's military campaign against increasing Iran-backed Palestinian terrorism in Judea and Samaria must be accompanied by the reinforcement of the Jewish settlement presence – and the establishment of a city in the Jordan Valley.   

Everyone with eyes in his head has known for a while that with Israel facing a multi-front war, Judea and Samaria would not be left out for long. And in fact, terrorism against civilians in the areas of Yosh has indeed intensified, stemming first from Jenin and Tul Karem in the northern Shomron, then continuing southward to Binyamin, from there to Gush Etzion, and reaching Judea, where Hevron is the terrorism capital.

In recent weeks, we have seen attempted attacks the likes of which we have not experienced in years. There were car bombs in Binyamin and Gush Etzion, which thankfully were detected in time, and in a form of Lebanonization, 100-kilogram explosive charges were hidden under refugee camp roads, targeting specifically IDF vehicles. We also experienced the brazen murder of three policemen in the Mt. Hevron area, as well as other assorted stonings and shootings.

And they have all been perpetrated with the use of weapons and explosives that made their long way from Iran and Afghanistan, through Iraq and Syria, and finally to Jordan and its semi-porous border with Israel.

Finally, however, it appears that the IDF Central Command has gotten the message. The result is an ongoing offensive - significant but still limited - against the terrorist infrastructures in northern Shomron and in the Jordan Valley.

The terrorists in Yosh have a general lust to kill Jews - but this desire is now buttressed by the added goal of tying up IDF forces so that they will be less available to fight in Gaza and in the north (against Hizbullah). So far, they appear to be succeeding.

Unfortunately, most of Am Yisrael [Jews inside and outside the Land of Israel] do not yet understand the essential importance of renewed Jewish settlement in the Gaza region, which was a major Jewish center even back in Talmudic times. Even our Prime Minister said that in his opinion, this is an unrealistic goal.

In my humble opinion, however, as we destroy Arab terrorist-stronghold cities in Gaza, we must simultaneously rebuild the Jewish residential presence there. This will be an acknowledgment of the utter foolishness of the Disengagement from Gush Katif in Gaza 19 years ago, and a form of "repentance" for having wantonly abandoned this precious part of our holy national inheritance. It will also, of course, serve as a painful punishment to Hamas, and a lesson for all those who wish to mimic them.

On the other hand, a withdrawal of IDF forces from the region will be a renewed Disengagement – of which everyone now sees the folly. As King Solomon wrote, "As a dog returns to his vomit, so does a fool repeat his folly" (Proverbs 26,11).

So much for Gaza. But regarding Judea and Samaria, there is practically no dispute regarding the necessity of both an IDF and a civilian presence there. Right now there are over half a million Jews living there, not even including another 300,000 who live in the areas in and around Jerusalem that were liberated in the Six Day War. As such, our presence there is a concrete fact that cannot be changed, and provides critical protection for central Israel.

Now, when Abu Mazen and Fatah still refuse to hold elections because they know that Hamas will win, is a perfect opportunity. We must destroy terrorist cities that support, encourage, and incite terrorism, and at the same time expand the Jewish settlement enterprise in Yosh by building new communities – even cities! – and expand the existing ones.

A New Jordan Valley City!

The increasing terrorism in the Jordan Valley towns of Tubas, Tamon, and Fara al-Jiftlik must be punished by the establishment of a Jewish city in the huge Jordan Valley expanse of vacant state lands. It should be located so as to connect to the main west-east Highway 5, leading from the Tel Aviv area to Ariel and points further east. We must also build a railroad that passes through the city of Ariel; the railway is already in the planning stages from central Israel to Ariel.

If the new city is built with public housing, as the Shamir government did in the 90's for the great wave of Aliyah from Russia, this will also be a solution for the shortage of housing for young couples in our country. Finding such housing must be a flagship project, including also expansion of existing communities and building new ones, and even in Area B (under Israeli military control).

We can thus achieve several national goals together: the eradication of terrorism in central Israel by striking out at the infrastructures that support terrorism; attaining cheap housing for young couples; and the strengthening of Jewish settlement in our heartland. We also thus achieve the observance of two important Torah commandments: inheriting the Land of Israel, and settling it.

Hopefully our political leaders will understand and start the ball rolling.

Four Comments on the "Situation"

by Menachem Rahat, INN, translated by Hillel Fendel.

1. The cold-blooded murder two weeks ago of the six innocent Israeli captives in the tunnels of Gaza by the monsters of Hamas has, most unfortunately, passed without a sufficient Israeli response. The response should have been, and still can be, something that will prove to the Gazans, and to Arabs in the entire region, that the spilling of Jewish blood comes at a price. This is now the time for emergency military orders to burn whatever remains of Gaza and turn it into a pile of ruins. Only in this way will the Arab world learn that Jewish blood is far from cheap.

The time has come to teach the new Nazis of our generation that nothing will hold us back, and that our response to their cruelty will be disproportionate. We must renew the Israel deterrence, transmitting the unmistakable message that there is no place for Hamas under the sun – and as they seek to kill us, we will wipe them out from under the sun. The barbarous atrocities of Oct. 2023, and the more recent cruel shots to the heads of the six young hostages, followed by six more murders – of three policemen near Hevron and three guards at the Allenby Crossing – prove that Hamas and allies are a malignant cancer that must be uprooted before they take root in the rest of the enlightened world.

As such, there is no room for any kind of agreement with them, temporary or otherwise. Cancers must be eradicated, before they grow and spread – and it is now clear that there will never be quiet as long as even one Hamas member continues to exist. It's either them or us.

2. The Torah portion of this past week began with: "Judges and policemen you must place throughout your gates… and they must judge the people with justice." It is a Torah commandment to carry out justice – and this is exactly what the proposed campaign to wipe out all traces of Hamas, Hizbullah and Islamic Jihad seeks to do. Anything that threatens the lives of the masses must be exterminated, as part of the Torah's charge to pursue justice.

But this must be done by judges who are themselves just, and by a judicial establishment that itself runs according to law. Israel's justice system, at present, leaves something to be desired in various areas, insulting sometimes the public intelligence, sometimes the law, and sometimes simple logic.

For instance, a few days ago we were witness to a strangely crooked phenomenon that casts a shadow upon the entire judicial establishment – even though it involves a judge who is now retired. Former Justice Sarah Haviv was filmed, with her clear knowledge and consent, working hard to tear down a large poster of photos of fallen IDF soldiers. The poster had been placed by members of the Gvurah Forum, who have lost family members in the course of the war against Hamas and who believe that the best way to return the captives home is by continuing the war against Hamas. Judge Haviv does not agree, and this was a good enough reason for her to act with violence and take the law into her own hands. As she told the cameraman with smug confidence, "The pictures are there illegally… We'll meet in court."

In a letter to the Israeli Bar Association requesting that Haviv's license to practice law be revoked, a bereaved father and Gvurah Forum member wrote: "What she did is comparable to walking into a cemetery and uprooting the gravestones of IDF soldiers. The pictures of fallen IDF soldiers that are posted throughout the country are living monuments to those who paid with their lives so that we can continue to live here."

3. Israel Must Win!
As Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu explained so well this week, the latest Hamas demand is for a total IDF withdrawal from all of Gaza, including the Smuggling route (AKA the Philadelphi route) between Gaza and Egypt – but under no circumstances can Israel afford to leave the Smuggling route. This is precisely the route where still today exist tens of tunnels, through which arms, explosives and rockets are smuggled to Hamas. If Israel wants to win this war – and it must!! [as former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said this week, www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-819431] – the only way to do so is by holding onto the Smuggling route for at least as long as it takes to destroy every last tunnel there. This, despite the hateful accusations by those who hate Netanyahu that he cares only for his political needs.

4. The dispute regarding the Smuggling route has not evaded the eyes of the soldiers battling in Gaza. These continue their tireless efforts to locate the enemy's tunnels and weaponry, and to find terrorists disguised as innocent citizens (sometimes as women). One of the soldiers sent an unsigned post in which he explained:

"The left is engaged in cheap demagoguery, as if a simple road is more important than the hostages' lives. So permit me to explain: Yes, the Smuggling route is more important than the hostages – and more than all of us. More than the Bibas children, and more than me and my entire battalion that has been fighting in Gaza since the beginning of the war. It is more important than all the thousands of soldiers who have been battling and warring with all they've got against a cruel enemy for nearly a year. The Smuggling route is that important, because it is through the Smuggling route that Hamas is able to arm its fighters with rockets, bombs, and explosives. The entire top command knows this, but for some reason what is leaked to the press is only the "correct" opinion, which is, "Don't worry, everything will be fine, we'll leave the Smuggling route and come back whenever we want." That's totally false! Every 100 meters, give or take, there is a tunnel that crosses under the border, through which tons of equipment for the terrorists come in – which is what enabled Oct. 7^th. If we leave it for one day, it means a death sentence for additional thousands of Israelis."

How sad it is that simple soldiers on the battlefield understand what thousands of relatives of hostages, and others, can't seem to overcome their emotions enough to understand. And by the way, the soldier didn't even mention that if we leave the Smuggling route for even one day, some of those very hostages are liable to be taken under that very route to Egypt and from there to the Nazis of Iran. Are there any words for such a frightening prospect?

The views expressed herein are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect those of our organization.

The Price is Heavy, That's Why We Must Keep Fighting

by Itamar Segal, prolific columnist, translated by Hillel Fendel.

Wartime, painful as it is, requires courageous leadership that understands that victory is the only option. Any withdrawal or "deal" will worsen the situation. Leaders must withstand pressure – and that's what Netanyahu is doing. 

What we are experiencing in Israel now is exactly what war looks like: hard, painful, costly, and replete with cruel dilemmas of life and death.

Any decision to bring a brigade or division into refugee camps near Jenin or Shechem, or into the streets of Khan Yunis in Gaza, is necessarily accompanied by a high risk of holy and brave soldiers paying with their lives, as well as wounded who will remain incapacitated or restricted for the rest of their lives.

It is precisely at these so difficult moments, when our hearts and emotions are stunned at the cruel Hamas slaughter of six of our brothers and sisters after nearly 11 torturous months in captivity, that our leaders must exhibit maturity and responsibility – even if this means something that much of the public cringes at and does not accept: continuing forward in the war effort with full force.

The abysmal Oslo process, and our hasty getaways from southern Lebanon and the critically strategic Philadelphi route bordering Gaza and Egypt, are what brought upon us the wars that we are now fighting north and south. Similarly, our release of some 6,000 Palestinian terrorists in the two Rajoub deals of 1983 and 1985, in exchange for the release of a total of 9 IDF soldiers – led to the Shalit deal in which over 1,000 terrorists, including the Satan himself, Yihye Sinwar, were freed in exchange for one soldier, Gilad Shalit. And it was this that led to over 1200 deaths in the Simchat Torah massacre nearly a year ago, plus over 220 Israelis taken hostage.

Now, with 700 additional deaths during the course of the current war, our leadership must tell the nation very clearly the painful truth: "There is no choice: We must win this war decisively and absolutely. We cannot release mass murderers, we cannot retreat from Gaza, we cannot fuel Satan's stockpiles of evil. We have paid heavy prices, and we will continue to have to pay more of the same – and still and all, we have no choice but to continue."

At moments like these, we must direct our pain to the right address: cruel revenge upon the enemy in the form of a war of destruction against Hamas and Islamic Jihad and their supporters and helpers – no matter how much time it takes, no matter how much it costs, no matter how many dead, hungry, sick, and homeless result in Gaza. 

PM Netanyahu 

Whoever is partner to the evil accusations, whether directly or merely by insinuation, that Prime Minister Netanyahu is apathetic, or worse, to the fate of the hostages – has a full share themselves in pushing off their arrival home for who knows how long. Those who blame Netanyahu for the situation simply strengthen Hamas' positions in whatever negotiations are taking place, and give Sinwar pure enjoyment at the internal strife in Israel. "Look at that!" he marvels. "I just murdered six hostages – and the Israelis blame Netanyahu and demand that he cave in!" 

No, it's not Netanyahu. Those who kidnapped our Israeli citizens, tortured them, and murdered them – people of Hamas – are the ones at fault here, and it is they and their countrymen who must pay the price, with compounded interest. 

Opposition Leader Lapid and others, such as Ganz, Barak, and even Bennett, are abusing their role as leaders who know the truth: Hamas does not want a deal, and whatever conditions they "accept" can be acceptable to Israel only if it wants to commit national suicide. 

The Philadelphi Route that Israel's Cabinet voted this week, nearly unanimously, to refuse to vacate – even at the possible cost of a half-baked deal for the release of some of the hostages – is not simply a token issue. This route is a bona fide expressway for the smuggling of arms, other weapons, explosives, etc., with Egyptian backing, via which our soldiers and citizens were slaughtered and killed in battle – and the Gazans hope to continue doing so. 

Retaining Philadelphi, and the Netzarim route as well, is not only a tactical necessity; if Hamas takes over these areas, they will provide victory photos for Hamas that will make their mark in the entire Arab world, from Lebanon to Iran to Syria to Yemen, and will crown Sinwar as a historic Arab hero on the scale of Salah a-Din. The consequences will be another Oct. 7th, or even worse. 

Netanyahu has a significant, though far from exclusive, share in the formation of the situation that led up to Oct. 7th. He was the one who, pressured by the public and hollow promises by the security establishment, released Yichye Sinwar and 1,026 other terrorists for Gilad Shalit; he supported the withdrawal from Gush Katif in critical Knesset votes; and he propped up Hamas with suitcases full of cash on the assumption – supported by the Shabak, etc. – that its alternative would be even worse.

And yet, Netanyahu is emerging at this time as a leader of true stature who understands, almost alone, the importance of the hour. We cannot sweep away his actions that contributed to the situation, together with the deep decay that has pervaded the senior military establishment in Israel – but now that we are in the position that we are, Netanyahu is standing without bending against an incredible onslaught of pressures, threats, virulent protests and strident media opposition. He is proving to be strong against the United States, the security establishment, and even against his own Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, all of whom are pressuring him terribly to accept a terrible deal, instead of pushing with full force for victory over the enemy. Netanyahu is resolute in maintaining the military achievements that we have won thus far, and in striving for victory – even in the face of the tragedy of the families of the captives. 

"Let us be strong and strengthened" – despite the tremendous pain – "on behalf of our nation and on behalf of the cities of our G-d" (Samuel I 10,12). Let us pursue our enemies and catch them, and let us not return until they are wiped off the face of the earth.

Nothing Less Than Victory – and Restoration of Israel's South and North – Will Do!

by Rabbi Yoel Bin-Nun, translated by Hillel Fendel.

In the face of the American bear hug embrace for Israel in the form of weapons, supplies, and international support, the State of Israel has two ways to wage this war - our 8th War of Independence - that has been forced upon us. 

The first way is to do so quickly and decisively, setting facts on the ground. This is how we did it in the Six Day of War in 1967, in which I had the privilege of serving as a soldier in the 55th Paratroopers Brigade, and which changed the face of the region, if not the world. 

The second way is to have on ongoing war of attrition, in which every Israeli initiative is subject to American approval, even if only retroactively. This is, sadly, the current state of affairs.  

If we would have merited to have a true national unity government, as we had on the eve of the Six Day War, we might have been able to win decisively and quickly in both the south and north, with full control of Gaza and southern Lebanon. 

This would have enabled the State of Israel free rein to distribute the humanitarian aid safely and fairly; to block up and flood tunnels; to block off fuel and electricity to the enemy's command tunnels; and to force Hamas to transfer all the hostages to Egypt, with which we would then negotiate their release. As it is now, we are negotiating their release with murderers whose hold on the hostages has no legal basis [as opposed to official prisoners of war], with the constant fear that they could be murdered at any moment. 

Such a situation would also have enabled the complete return of the tens of thousands of residents of the southern and northern communities to their homes and the rebuilding of their towns. This, in fact, is the most important criterion of total victory!

What prevented the fast, decisive victory? One reason is the deep mistrust that prevails within the Israeli political leadership. The second is the intense fear of most of our political leaders to openly confront the American administration, which would be liable to result in a dangerous isolation of Israel in the UN and the world. Instead of a quick and sharp victory, the war is ongoing and slow and costs us heavily. 

And so, the final Biden-Harris administration tally (so far) is that it has put the brakes on a decisive Israeli victory, saved Hamas because of Qatari and Egyptian pressure, forced Israel to wage its offensive in a slow and surgical manner, and prevented a decisive offensive against Hizbullah in the north. 

Still and all, Israel was successful in destroying some 80% of the tunnels under Philadelphi, while Egypt looked on and did not interfere. Israel's insistence on continuing to hold this corridor is one of the main points holding up the as-yet unspecified agreement with Hamas regarding the release of some of the hostages. 

In answer to those who, with and without military qualifications, claim that we actually don't need Philadelphi because "the IDF can go back and retake it whenever it needs to," we say this: This is the same nonsense they spouted 19 years ago when we left Gush Katif. Retaking it this time has cost us many soldiers' lives, and the same will be true if we have to do it again – many more than the living captives that we may be able to save if we leave Philadelphi now.  

We cannot ignore the fact that the US helped us greatly this past April in our successful toppling and intercepting of hundreds of rockets that Iran fired at us. However, the US also did not allow us to follow up with a counter-attack that would have allowed us to smash Iran's capabilities and provide us with many years of peace. Instead, we have an ongoing Iranian threat for another offensive, which could happen at any time Iran chooses. 

The same was true in the north. When Hizbullah was threatening vengeance upon Israel for having eliminating Hamas leader Abu Haniyeh in Beirut, the Americans allowed us to carry out a pre-emptive attack. They did not, however, permit anything more, which could have led to a striking defeat of Hizbullah, and which would then have enabled the return of the northern communities to their homes.  

Thus, the American bear hug does not allow us a true victory in the north. For there is no way the residents can return if Hamas continues to man its rocket-launching posts and threaten the thousands of Israeli homes in their sights. Can you imagine if the Six Day War had ended without the IDF taking over the Golan Heights from the Syrians? Could the communities in the northern Jordan Valley or in the Galilee have possibly survived under such conditions?

Yes, it would be a great psychological victory if we could eliminate Sinwar and free the captives alive, without having to release terrorist murderers or retreat from Gaza. But even in such a scenario, there can be no true victory without the complete rehabilitation of all of our northern and southern communities. Nothing less will do!