From Tactical Success To Strategic Victory

by Emanuel Shilo, editor of the weekly Besheva newspaper, translated by Hillel Fendel.

This article was written just after the brilliant Beeper/pager attacks (for which Israel has not accepted responsibility), and a few days before the Israel Air Force's current massive assault on homes and other buildings in which Hizbullah stored tens of thousands of missiles ready for launching towards Israel. Author Emanuel Shilo, editor of the weekly Besheva newspaper, explains here, before it happened, the strategy and rationale behind the war that Israel has apparently embarked upon against Hizbullah.

--Israel must utilize to its full advantage the substantial damage and upheaval suffered by the terrorist organization Hizbullah and launch an attack that will deal it a fatal blow and enable the residents of the north to return to their homes as soon as possible. This time, a genuine and decisive resolution is needed to the problem of Hizbullah, and not just temporary deterrence.--

This past Tuesday, following the extraordinary, sophisticated, amazing and unprecedented operation of the detonation of thousands of beeper devices in the hands and on the bodies of thousands of Hizbullah terrorists, there were some who complained that the whole thing was a colossal waste.

For if Israel actually carried it out, as Hizbullah claims, how is it possible that Israel would activate such a powerful tool without following it with a large, intensive offensive that would actualize its gains? 

The second round of explosions, a day later, silenced the criticism to a certain degree. It reinforced the sense that there seems to be more here than meets the eye. It also gave us the feeling that the story was not yet over, and that we actually can rely on the mysterious operators of this event and that they know what they are doing. 

But still: We must not allow ourselves to return to our tranquility, blind trust, and complete credit that we tended to grant to the leaders of our security networks before Oct. 7th. The failure of that day was so terrible and so all-encompassing that no tactical success afterwards can exempt us from constant awareness and suspicions. 

Israel is good at military actions in which we take the initiative, whether with our Air Force, special units, or cyber warfare. We are less impressive at being prepared for surprises and deceptions on the part of the enemy, as we learned first-hand both on Yom Kippur in 1973 and on Simchat Torah of 2023. And, as we have seen during the ongoing campaign in Gaza, alongside our brilliant tactical successes, we suffer from the lack of a clear strategic plan for decisive victory.

Over the past several decades, our security establishment has excelled at, and became accustomed to, sending "messages" and "signals" to the enemy – instead of striking him with genuinely decisive blows. We tried to deter instead of defeat. We sought to change his intentions, instead of smashing his capabilities.

If that has changed, the burden of proof is on the leaders of our security establishment. They must show us that they have switched their diskette. Up to now, this does not appear to have been the case. They have brought great tactical successes, but the objectives of the war have not yet been met. It appears that they are seeking not victory, but some kind of arrangement with our enemies that will keep them alive, together with a deal for some – not all! – of our hostages, in exchange for hundreds of terrorists. 

The Israeli public, and especially those who are fighting our wars in the south and north and who have sacrificed so much, expects much more than that. They want the destruction of Hamas! The residents of our north, too, cannot be expected to return to their homes without a mortal blow to Hizbullah, and its distancing far away from our northern border with Lebanon, with a large buffer zone empty of Hizbullah. 

Hizbullah today, hours after the second wave of exploding devices, is reminiscent of the Biblical account of the men of Shechem on the third day of their not-quite-sincere circumcisions: They were "in pain," the Torah tells us, and the sons of Jacob took advantage to wipe out the threat they represented. Today, as well, we need a Shimon and Levi who will take sword in hand and go out to liquidate the enemy. In our current state, even their father Jacob [whose support for the actions of Shimon and Levi was ambivalent] would certainly whole-heartedly support this. 

POSTSCRIPT: As of Monday evening, the situation was that the Israel Air Force had attacked 1,300 targets in southern Lebanon in four waves, mostly residential homes that housed cruise missiles with a range of hundreds of kilometers, 1,000-kilogram explosive warhead rockets, and medium-range missiles of ranges between 50 and 200 kilometers. IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari said that by hiding its rockets in two-thirds (!) of houses in southern Lebanon, Hizbullah had turned the area into a battle zone. "We face challenging days ahead," Hagari said. 

Playing in the Sandbox, Instead of in the Real World

by Dvir Shreiber, Besheva, translated by Hillel Fendel.

A sad satire on the media emphasis on the sand thrown at Ben-Gvir

Most certainly you have all heard of THE event of the week that took Israel by storm last week, namely, the sand incident of last Friday on a Tel Aviv beach. It began when Public Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir took his family out on a pre-Sabbath outing to the seashore. A woman there, apparently not a strong nationalist, threw sand on Ben-Gvir, and then ran back into the waves with a feeling of great accomplishment.

However, at that point, as we know, the big bad terrible police came and demanded (!) that she (!!) get out (!!!) of the water (!!!!) and actually arrested her (!!!!!) – even though she's only a little girl 27 years of age with epilepsy and over-developed delusions of grandeur. Social media and propaganda news stations in Israel erupted in fury that the police were acting like the Stasi police of East Germany, like Argentina in the 70's, like Israel during the Disengagement from Gush Katif, and basically we all had one big mud-throwing party. 

But while the country was aflame with the bitter fate of the little beach girl, in the Jordan Valley there was another little incident, marginal, really nothing important, which made the headlines for about a minute and a half and was then buried in the sand. It was just a simple case of a Jordanian terrorist who got out of his truck at the Allenby Crossing and shot three Israeli guards to death. Nothing too dramatic, a terrorist attack against Jews in the Land of Israel is pretty routine, nothing to get excited about. In fact, just a week before that there was another Arab Palestinian terrorist attack, and there too, three Jews were murdered. So what? Did it change anything about us? Did it lower the volume of our arguments? Did it cause anyone to stop accusing Bibi of either killing the hostages himself or of asking Sinwar to do it?

The Jordanians, on the other hand, did not take the attack in stride as if it were just another news item. They gave out candies, trampled on Israeli flags, and shot fireworks. And the Jordanian government, that which condemns us with every breath we take, this time didn't do that right away; it rather kept silent for a half-hour, and then condemned us. 

Israel, for its part, decided this time not to remain silent: That very evening, Netanyahu announced firmly and unmistakably that from now on, no government minister would visit the Temple Mount without coordinating beforehand with him, in order not to offend Jordanian sensibilities. This was a logical approach; it is inconceivable that they would attack us and we would simply ignore it and not apologize to them.

The Bridge of Blood
The Jordanian attack and Netanyahu's quick announcement reminded me of what happened to me in Elul 1996, exactly 28 years ago, when I was a young reservist guarding the Adam Bridge between Israel and Jordan (50 kilometers north of the Allenby Crossing). It was a sleepy place, with maybe one old truck passing through every hour. My job was to make sure no one snuck across the bridge into Israel, and also to drink a lot so as not to evaporate in the illogical Jordan Valley heat.

One morning I look up and see an armed Jordanian officer walking along the bridge towards our side. I yelled at him in Arabic to stop. He didn't. When he reached the middle of the bridge, I raised my gun and told him in English that he is not permitted on our side. He gave me a piercing look, turned around, and went back. 

Half a second later, one of the Israeli officers in charge rushed up to me and said, "What did you do?!" I said, "My job." He yelled back, "Oh no!" and ran across to the bridge and the Jordanian officer, and apologized to him. They embraced and both returned to our side to have a cup of coffee, while I continued to evaporate and ask myself what I was doing there altogether and if anyone needed me there. A bit later, the Israeli officer came back to me and explained that we're not allowed to say, "You're not allowed" to a Jordanian, because it makes him feel bad and could ignite a regional war. "This is border of peace," he explained patiently. "They can come here whenever they want. No more war, no more bloodshed."

Six months later, a Jordanian soldier shot and murdered seven Israeli schoolgirls visiting the Naharayim Peace Island, another border crossing north of the Adam Bridge. Twenty years after that, the murderer was released from Jordanian prison and was welcomed home as a hero. Israel didn't comment, apparently not wishing to offend any Jordanian sensibilities.

The Jordanians are in fact very sensitive – perhaps because they don't really have a history and are a quite recent invention. The British, after all, established the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan especially for the Hashemites, after promising them the Arabian Peninsula in exchange for cooperation against the Ottoman Empire, but they [the British] did not keep their word. So as compensation, and also to encroach on the national home that the British had promised the Jews in exchange for cooperation against the Ottomans but did not keep their word, the British gave the Hashemites the entire eastern bank of the Jordan River. They also helped them take control of Judea and Samaria. And Jerusalem. And Gush Etzion. The main thing was that the Hashemites should not be offended…

In the Six Day War, the sensitive Jordanians tried to conquer all of central Israel from us, but we won. Ever since then, we have been doing everything we can to appease them, so that they should not feel too bad. This is why Jews are not allowed to drink water on the Temple Mount; the Jordanians are very sensitive to that. This is also why we give them lots of our desalinated water [in accordance with the peace treaty with Jordan of 1994], and double the amount every few years. 

As a token of their appreciation, the Jordanians double the amount of weapons and ammunition that they allow the terrorist organizations to smuggle into Judea and Samaria. We of course close our eyes to this, in order not to shame them. This method worked so fantastically well with Gaza and Egypt, so there's no reason why it shouldn't work with Judea and Samaria and the sensitive Jordanians.

Stepping Up the Pace

The Jews of the Jordan Valley have been noticing for months heightened military activity over the border with Jordan. But it's a bit awkward for the IDF to ask the Jordanians what's going on there, because they might get insulted. Last month, a Jordanian MP was caught at the Allenby Crossing attempting to smuggle tremendous amounts of weapons into Israel. In response, we apologized to the king, because we realized what an embarrassment it was to him that one of his subjects was caught. 

The Israeli Embassy in Amman looks like a fortified military base, because an Israeli presence in their capital is insulting to them. The same is true for Jewish holy objects such as tefillin, and this is why they don't allow Jewish tourists to bring them into their country.

So there was a murderous attack at the Jordanian border a few days ago. Is that a reason for us to hurt Jordanian feelings, now of all times? After all, we need a quiet eastern border so that we can deal with our northern and southern borders, after years of self-restraint in the face of everything that happened there, so as not to cause regional war. But with the Jordanians, it will be different; they won't hurt us, they're sensitive people. Let's just go back to talking all sorts of nonsense about the shifting sands on the beach and throwing sand on Ben-Gvir and in our own eyes. That should keep us busy and undistracted by the more important things.

Generals with Cognitive Dissonance

by Dr. Tzvi Sadan, translated by Hillel Fendel.

Editorial note: This article was originally published in Hebrew on Monday morning, some 30 hours before hundreds of Hizbullah cell phones exploded in Lebanon. 

It's clear that even now, after everyone should have known already that there's no difference between Hamas and the Fatah-run Palestinian Authority, that Israel's security establishment continues to believe in the "Hamas is deterred" (mis)conception. (It should really be known as the Kaplan conception, in honor of the Kaplan St. protestors who have been demanding the return of the hostages, whereas the true goal of many of them is to bring down the government.) 

Because the old conception continues to be their underlying perception, the military bigwigs are convinced that we can "calm down" our enemies if we simply give them weapons from Iran, money from Qatar, and work in Israel.

A report on Channel 13 from a week ago makes this quite clear: "The Defense Minister, the head of the Shabak, and the IDF Chief of Staff warned the Cabinet regarding the security situation in Judea and Samaria, and asked that things there be calmed down – with an emphasis on transferring money to the PA and not changing the status quo on the Temple Mount. If the situation in fact blows up, the IDF's response will come at the expense of the combat in Gaza." [The last sentence was meant as a warning. - HF]

There are other ways, of course, to "calm things down." For instance, Israel could drop a bomb on the parade of Nukhba [Oct. 7th] terrorists in Jenin, or exile the residents of Hawara to Nablus, or establish new Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria. But [Chief of Staff] Hertzi HaLevi, [Defense Minister Yoav] Galant, and [Shabak head Ronen] Bar would rather "calm down the PA street" just as they calmed down Gaza. They feel that, "If we just give our partners in the territories guns, money, and good jobs, for sure we'll have quiet; if it worked so well in Gaza, why shouldn't it work in Yosh as well? They're the same Arabs, no?" [The last sentence is a cynical play on the claim of hawks in Israel when warning about the dangers presented by various Arab elements. - HF]

There are several other indications that the pre-Oct. 7th conception has not only not disappeared, but has actually, incredibly, strengthened over the past year. We continue to heart things like: If the Gilad Shalit deal succeeded in bringing a measure of quiet (which it did not), then it's logical to think that a small hostage deal now will do the same, no? And if after the Disengagement/expulsion from Gush Katif we were able to return to the Philadelphi Route whenever we wanted (not), then for sure we can abandon it now and return again at the snap of our fingers, no? As the talking heads continue to make these statements, it is clear that the Kaplan conception is still alive and kicking.

This adherence to a concept that has turned out to be disconnected from reality, lacking in factual basis, and disastrous – is, among other things, the result of a belief that has developed in our circles that security assessments are a type of prophecy, and that the heads of our intelligence agencies are prophets – unfortunately, false ones. Those security chiefs who continue to adhere to the "Kaplan concept" are behaving as irrationally as members of a cult. 

Many have long understood that Galant, Hertzi and Bar are stuck in their belief in the false conception – but as for me, I only really got it just recently. It happened when I heard that some in the IDF and Shabak actually want to give guns to the Palestinian Authority, and bring PA workers in to Israel, for the purpose of "quieting things down."

"Hey," I said to myself, "I think these guys [the heads of the Defense Ministry, IDF, and Shabak] have a bad case of cognitive dissonance." This is a condition that deeply affects one's judgement, and characterizes cult members, whose false beliefs often become stronger the more they are proven to be wrong and in direct contrast with reality.

 Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schachter were apparently the first to identify this condition, in their work "When Prophecy Fails." Their book revolved around a cult called the Seekers, whose members believed that a great flood was to happen on a particular date, and that they themselves would be saved from it by aliens on a flying saucer. The three authors studied the members before and after, and discovered that many of them, with cognitive dissonance, continued to believe in the flood and the flying saucer even after the date passed in total dryness. 

These cult members endangered no one other than themselves – but the members of the "Hamas is deterred" cult, who also appear to suffer from the above syndrome, continue to speak and act as if Hamas and Fatah and other enemies can be deterred – and this endangers all of us in a most concrete manner.

My diagnosis that cognitive dissonance is harming their judgement is one of a historian, not a psychologist, and therefore cannot justify compelling them to be professionally treated. It is sufficient, however, to strongly recommend that they be fired from their positions – and I therefore strongly recommend to the Government of Israel and the man at its helm not to allow those who place Israel in concrete existential danger to remain in their posts.

The Pen, the Sword – and the Hilltops

by Doron Nir-Tzvi, INN, translated by Hillel Fendel.

The IDF's military campaign against increasing Iran-backed Palestinian terrorism in Judea and Samaria must be accompanied by the reinforcement of the Jewish settlement presence – and the establishment of a city in the Jordan Valley.   

Everyone with eyes in his head has known for a while that with Israel facing a multi-front war, Judea and Samaria would not be left out for long. And in fact, terrorism against civilians in the areas of Yosh has indeed intensified, stemming first from Jenin and Tul Karem in the northern Shomron, then continuing southward to Binyamin, from there to Gush Etzion, and reaching Judea, where Hevron is the terrorism capital.

In recent weeks, we have seen attempted attacks the likes of which we have not experienced in years. There were car bombs in Binyamin and Gush Etzion, which thankfully were detected in time, and in a form of Lebanonization, 100-kilogram explosive charges were hidden under refugee camp roads, targeting specifically IDF vehicles. We also experienced the brazen murder of three policemen in the Mt. Hevron area, as well as other assorted stonings and shootings.

And they have all been perpetrated with the use of weapons and explosives that made their long way from Iran and Afghanistan, through Iraq and Syria, and finally to Jordan and its semi-porous border with Israel.

Finally, however, it appears that the IDF Central Command has gotten the message. The result is an ongoing offensive - significant but still limited - against the terrorist infrastructures in northern Shomron and in the Jordan Valley.

The terrorists in Yosh have a general lust to kill Jews - but this desire is now buttressed by the added goal of tying up IDF forces so that they will be less available to fight in Gaza and in the north (against Hizbullah). So far, they appear to be succeeding.

Unfortunately, most of Am Yisrael [Jews inside and outside the Land of Israel] do not yet understand the essential importance of renewed Jewish settlement in the Gaza region, which was a major Jewish center even back in Talmudic times. Even our Prime Minister said that in his opinion, this is an unrealistic goal.

In my humble opinion, however, as we destroy Arab terrorist-stronghold cities in Gaza, we must simultaneously rebuild the Jewish residential presence there. This will be an acknowledgment of the utter foolishness of the Disengagement from Gush Katif in Gaza 19 years ago, and a form of "repentance" for having wantonly abandoned this precious part of our holy national inheritance. It will also, of course, serve as a painful punishment to Hamas, and a lesson for all those who wish to mimic them.

On the other hand, a withdrawal of IDF forces from the region will be a renewed Disengagement – of which everyone now sees the folly. As King Solomon wrote, "As a dog returns to his vomit, so does a fool repeat his folly" (Proverbs 26,11).

So much for Gaza. But regarding Judea and Samaria, there is practically no dispute regarding the necessity of both an IDF and a civilian presence there. Right now there are over half a million Jews living there, not even including another 300,000 who live in the areas in and around Jerusalem that were liberated in the Six Day War. As such, our presence there is a concrete fact that cannot be changed, and provides critical protection for central Israel.

Now, when Abu Mazen and Fatah still refuse to hold elections because they know that Hamas will win, is a perfect opportunity. We must destroy terrorist cities that support, encourage, and incite terrorism, and at the same time expand the Jewish settlement enterprise in Yosh by building new communities – even cities! – and expand the existing ones.

A New Jordan Valley City!

The increasing terrorism in the Jordan Valley towns of Tubas, Tamon, and Fara al-Jiftlik must be punished by the establishment of a Jewish city in the huge Jordan Valley expanse of vacant state lands. It should be located so as to connect to the main west-east Highway 5, leading from the Tel Aviv area to Ariel and points further east. We must also build a railroad that passes through the city of Ariel; the railway is already in the planning stages from central Israel to Ariel.

If the new city is built with public housing, as the Shamir government did in the 90's for the great wave of Aliyah from Russia, this will also be a solution for the shortage of housing for young couples in our country. Finding such housing must be a flagship project, including also expansion of existing communities and building new ones, and even in Area B (under Israeli military control).

We can thus achieve several national goals together: the eradication of terrorism in central Israel by striking out at the infrastructures that support terrorism; attaining cheap housing for young couples; and the strengthening of Jewish settlement in our heartland. We also thus achieve the observance of two important Torah commandments: inheriting the Land of Israel, and settling it.

Hopefully our political leaders will understand and start the ball rolling.

Four Comments on the "Situation"

by Menachem Rahat, INN, translated by Hillel Fendel.

1. The cold-blooded murder two weeks ago of the six innocent Israeli captives in the tunnels of Gaza by the monsters of Hamas has, most unfortunately, passed without a sufficient Israeli response. The response should have been, and still can be, something that will prove to the Gazans, and to Arabs in the entire region, that the spilling of Jewish blood comes at a price. This is now the time for emergency military orders to burn whatever remains of Gaza and turn it into a pile of ruins. Only in this way will the Arab world learn that Jewish blood is far from cheap.

The time has come to teach the new Nazis of our generation that nothing will hold us back, and that our response to their cruelty will be disproportionate. We must renew the Israel deterrence, transmitting the unmistakable message that there is no place for Hamas under the sun – and as they seek to kill us, we will wipe them out from under the sun. The barbarous atrocities of Oct. 2023, and the more recent cruel shots to the heads of the six young hostages, followed by six more murders – of three policemen near Hevron and three guards at the Allenby Crossing – prove that Hamas and allies are a malignant cancer that must be uprooted before they take root in the rest of the enlightened world.

As such, there is no room for any kind of agreement with them, temporary or otherwise. Cancers must be eradicated, before they grow and spread – and it is now clear that there will never be quiet as long as even one Hamas member continues to exist. It's either them or us.

2. The Torah portion of this past week began with: "Judges and policemen you must place throughout your gates… and they must judge the people with justice." It is a Torah commandment to carry out justice – and this is exactly what the proposed campaign to wipe out all traces of Hamas, Hizbullah and Islamic Jihad seeks to do. Anything that threatens the lives of the masses must be exterminated, as part of the Torah's charge to pursue justice.

But this must be done by judges who are themselves just, and by a judicial establishment that itself runs according to law. Israel's justice system, at present, leaves something to be desired in various areas, insulting sometimes the public intelligence, sometimes the law, and sometimes simple logic.

For instance, a few days ago we were witness to a strangely crooked phenomenon that casts a shadow upon the entire judicial establishment – even though it involves a judge who is now retired. Former Justice Sarah Haviv was filmed, with her clear knowledge and consent, working hard to tear down a large poster of photos of fallen IDF soldiers. The poster had been placed by members of the Gvurah Forum, who have lost family members in the course of the war against Hamas and who believe that the best way to return the captives home is by continuing the war against Hamas. Judge Haviv does not agree, and this was a good enough reason for her to act with violence and take the law into her own hands. As she told the cameraman with smug confidence, "The pictures are there illegally… We'll meet in court."

In a letter to the Israeli Bar Association requesting that Haviv's license to practice law be revoked, a bereaved father and Gvurah Forum member wrote: "What she did is comparable to walking into a cemetery and uprooting the gravestones of IDF soldiers. The pictures of fallen IDF soldiers that are posted throughout the country are living monuments to those who paid with their lives so that we can continue to live here."

3. Israel Must Win!
As Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu explained so well this week, the latest Hamas demand is for a total IDF withdrawal from all of Gaza, including the Smuggling route (AKA the Philadelphi route) between Gaza and Egypt – but under no circumstances can Israel afford to leave the Smuggling route. This is precisely the route where still today exist tens of tunnels, through which arms, explosives and rockets are smuggled to Hamas. If Israel wants to win this war – and it must!! [as former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said this week, www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-819431] – the only way to do so is by holding onto the Smuggling route for at least as long as it takes to destroy every last tunnel there. This, despite the hateful accusations by those who hate Netanyahu that he cares only for his political needs.

4. The dispute regarding the Smuggling route has not evaded the eyes of the soldiers battling in Gaza. These continue their tireless efforts to locate the enemy's tunnels and weaponry, and to find terrorists disguised as innocent citizens (sometimes as women). One of the soldiers sent an unsigned post in which he explained:

"The left is engaged in cheap demagoguery, as if a simple road is more important than the hostages' lives. So permit me to explain: Yes, the Smuggling route is more important than the hostages – and more than all of us. More than the Bibas children, and more than me and my entire battalion that has been fighting in Gaza since the beginning of the war. It is more important than all the thousands of soldiers who have been battling and warring with all they've got against a cruel enemy for nearly a year. The Smuggling route is that important, because it is through the Smuggling route that Hamas is able to arm its fighters with rockets, bombs, and explosives. The entire top command knows this, but for some reason what is leaked to the press is only the "correct" opinion, which is, "Don't worry, everything will be fine, we'll leave the Smuggling route and come back whenever we want." That's totally false! Every 100 meters, give or take, there is a tunnel that crosses under the border, through which tons of equipment for the terrorists come in – which is what enabled Oct. 7^th. If we leave it for one day, it means a death sentence for additional thousands of Israelis."

How sad it is that simple soldiers on the battlefield understand what thousands of relatives of hostages, and others, can't seem to overcome their emotions enough to understand. And by the way, the soldier didn't even mention that if we leave the Smuggling route for even one day, some of those very hostages are liable to be taken under that very route to Egypt and from there to the Nazis of Iran. Are there any words for such a frightening prospect?

The views expressed herein are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect those of our organization.